2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Election
January 21, 2024
Happiness Is Making Your Dreams Come True. Jourdan Dunn
1. Introduction
It’s that time of year, once again. On January 23rd of 2024, the Baseball Writers Association of America [BBWAA] will announce the results of their annual vote to let some more retired Baseball players into the Baseball Hall of Fame [BHOF]. These lucky players will be going in through the front door [the back door being the various shady committees where the dirty work of the BHOF is done]. In this post, I will look at each candidate’s worthiness through the lens of the: 1) Wins Above Replacement [WAR] and 2) Win Shares [WS] player evaluation systems. To determine whether any candidate is actually worthy under either of these two systems, I will be using the Lowest Common Denominator Method [LCDM] to evaluate each player’s WAR and WS scores. The LCDM tries to ensure that no player is elected to the BHOF who does not already have a better WAR or WS score than the worst player who should have been elected. After evaluating a player’s WAR and WS numbers by the LCDM, a discussion will be had for each player on the ballot about whether they are worthy, whether they could have been worthy with better luck, or whether they were never really good enough for election to the BHOF. We will also mention where each player is on the Ryan Thibodaux “Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker” [BHFVT]. The BHFVT compiles already published votes ahead of the actual announcement and is invaluable in taking almost 100% of the fun out of the actual BHOF announcement of who is going to be inducted.
2. Player Evaluation Methods
What is the difference between the two player evaluation systems that will be used in this post? Bill James’ Win Shares [WS] method measures the bulk of a player’s career. Under this system, good hitting players with long careers are rewarded. In other words, it favors a long workman career offensively over a shorter but more spectacular career. Defensively, Win Shares favors the other eight men in the field over the pitcher. In fact, pitchers are so undervalued by WS that this system may have to be disregarded when considering if a pitcher is worthy of election to the BHOF. Although WS increases the defensive value of every positional player across the board by devaluing pitcher contributions, the defensive metrics used by the WS system are conservative. On the other hand, Wins Above Replacement [WAR] does not reward the bulk of a player’s career. It removes any credit for that part of a player’s value that falls below Replacement Value [RV].* By removing RV from a player’s career, WAR is able to more highly reward the short spectacular career while downgrading long bulk careers. Defensively, WAR does not seem to favor the hitters over their pitching brethren or vice versa. However, WAR seems to greatly reward what it measures as defensive excellence while heavily penalizing any inept fielding players. WAR, of course, has become the pre-eminent player evaluation tool. On the other hand, Win Shares is all but obsolete. But it is interesting to note the differences between the methods. If the Baseball Reference website had adopted WS rather than WAR as their main player evaluation tool, it is quite obvious that there would be some differences in the marginal players that get inducted into the BHOF.
*Replacement Value is a pre-determined value of WAR which could easily be produced by any fungible player grabbed off the Major League bench or out of the minor leagues.
3. The Lazy Man’s BBHOF Lowest Common Denominator Method
In past posts, I liked to use what I called the “Lowest Common Denominator Method” [LCDM] for analyzing whether a player was qualified for the BHOF by the WAR [Wins Above Replacement] system of player evaluation. The LCDM simply assumed that the BHOF had used career WAR to choose its members. In other words, the LCDM assumed that, if there are 300 Baseball players in the Hall of Fame, those players ranked from 1st thru 300th in career WAR. If a newly eligible player for the BHOF has a better WAR than that player ranked 300th, then that player deserves to also be inducted. In my “original” LCDM system, I found the lowest ranking BHOF member by ignoring Negro League players [as their career WARs are not fully realized], removing those players who were banned [for steroids, gambling, idiocy], and also disregarding the ineligible [still active or too recently retired]. After all this, I discovered that the LCDM player at that time was ranked 276th on the career WAR list. But this time, I am just going to be lazy. There are currently 343 men in the Hall of Fame and 270 of them have been elected as players. For the 2024 BBHOF election, the LCDM will simply be set at 270 with 271 to 343 constituting the grey area. The 270th best player by WAR is Jimmy Collins with a score of 53.3; and the 270th best by Win Shares is four guys tied at 279.7 [Ryan Braun, Lave Cross, Steve Garvey, and Fred Lynn]. If a player has more than 53.3 WAR and 279.7 WS, then he should be elected to the BHOF. If the player cannot meet either of these thresholds, he should not. If a player meets one but not the other, that is where things get interesting.
1) Adrian Beltre: 93.5 WAR [40th All Time]; 375.5 WS or so [79th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 99.0% of 179 votes [approximately 49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Beltre is well above the bottom lines for both WAR [40th vs. 270] and WS [79th vs. 270]. It is obvious that Beltre will be elected to the BHOF in 2024, almost unanimously, as he should be. At this point, only some type of ballot catastrophe could keep him out [“100 senile baseball writers forget to include Adrain Beltre on their ballots”…or something similar].
Comment: So far above the WAR and WS bottom lines for the BHOF that only some steroid abusing, wife beating, and/or nasty gambling allegations could have kept him out…but there are none. Adrian Beltre has one of the oddest career paths of any Hall of Famer. He debuted at 19 years old. At age 20, he had a very good first full year [Beltre would have easily been the Rookie of the Year if he not lost his rookie status the year before]. At the age of 21, he had an even better second full year. From 22 to 24, he struggled through injuries that would have derailed a lesser player. Then, at 25, he had his peak season, slugging as he never would again and leading the League in home runs, all in a free agent walk year.* From 26 to 30, Beltre played in a pitching-friendly park that seemed to bank the fire in his bat down from an inferno to just a campfire. From 31 to 38, he was Hall of Fame caliber player, year after year, with very little degradation of his skills until leg injuries derailed that 38-year-old season. At 39, Beltre returned to the game but was diminished to simply an average player and promptly retired after the season ended.
*In 2004, Adrian Beltre [48 HRs-121 RBIs-.334 BA-.629 SA] finished second in the National League MVP voting behind peak steroid Barry Bonds [45-101-.362 -.812] and ahead of monster seasons by Albert Pujols [46-123-.331-.657], Scott Rolen [34-124-.314-.598], and Jim Edmunds [42-111-.301-.643]. Does this count for Beltre as a steroid stolen MVP? Fate took both a Rookie of the Year award and an MVP award away from Beltre.
2) Joe Mauer: 55.2 WAR [250th All Time]; 305.0 WS [197th or so All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 83.2% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Mauer qualifies for the BHOF under both the WAR [250/270] and the WS [197/270] systems. Given extra credit for catching, it makes perfect sense that he is a making a strong showing in his very first year. The BHOFT currently shows him with enough support to withstand the usual erosion of support contained in unpublished ballots. With half of the votes counted by the HOF Tracker, it will be an total upset if he is not elected in 2024.
Comment: It is almost a certainty that Joe Mauer will be elected to the BHOF on his first year on the ballot. Oddly, this result seems to have caught some sportswriters by surprise. However, Mauer is a catcher and, traditionally, that position gets extra credit for the brutal toll it takes on its practitioners. Mauer was on his way to being one of the most unique and very best catchers of all time (a too tall and lanky catcher who also won multiple batting titles) when a series of concussions forced him to play first base instead and shortened his career significantly. It probably also doesn’t hurt that Mauer spent his whole career playing for his hometown team while being a singularly wholesome & handsome looking man.
3) Todd Helton: 61.8 WAR [171th All Time]; 316.5 WS or so [167th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 82.2% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 6th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Helton qualifies under both WAR and WS. After barely missing election in 2023, it looks like he is finally in this year. Like Mauer, he is high enough above the 75% line that the inevitable erosion of support from the voters who do not reveal their ballots will not be able to bring him down.
Comment: Todd Helton, after six long years of waiting, will finally be getting elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The only real question now is: why did it take so long? There are three usual options given: 1) some unproven steroid allegations during his career, 2) some post career DUI arrests, and 3) the fact that he played his whole career in Colorado. It may have helped Helton if he had played a few seasons out of Colorado’s thin air and proven that he could also hit at sea level. Many players have left Colorado and proven that there is a significant “bounce back” in their batting statistics. In other words, players in Colorado have trouble adjusting to other parks after hitting at a mile high altitude. This depresses their road batting and slugging averages while they play for Colorado but goes away once they leave the Rockies. On the other hand, Todd Helton had a higher batting and slugging average at home every single year of his career. However, WAR and WS, which adjust for park, both believe that he is qualified.*
*Just for fun you can add together Todd Helton’s road totals for the 2000 and 2001 seasons. You get a first baseman who hits .319, slugs .613 with 54 2Bs, 1 3B, 37 HRs, 94 runs, 121 RBIs, 91 BB, and 88 strikeouts while playing in a home park that probably suppresses this road production. Not bad.
4) Billy Wagner: 27.7 WAR [tied for 994th All Time]; 182.1 WS or so [who knows All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 78.5% of 179 votes [49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 9th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: The only real question left now for the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame class is whether Billy Wagner will be elected. It is going to be very close but it looks like he will not make it. Even if he doesn’t get in this year, Wagner will probably be pushed over the finish line in 2025 by a “final-year-on-the-ballot” bump.
Comment: As a relief pitcher, Billy Wagner does not come close to qualifying for the BHOF under either WAR or WS. But it is obvious that the Hall of Fame voters give a lot of extra credit to a good relief pitcher. Basically, these voters seem to think that the high leverage situations faced by ace relievers should be used to multiply the relief pitcher’s WAR by two. The BHOF candidacy of Wagner illustrates that BHOF voters are basically doubling the career WAR of these top relievers. If he had been credited with twice his career WAR [27.7 x 2 = 55.5 WAR], Billy Wagner would have finished his career tied with three other men for 243rd in WAR for all time, comfortably under the bottom line of 270th. See also the Francisco Rodriguez comment.
5) Gary Sheffield: 60.5 WAR [183rd All Time]; 428.4 WS or so [notably 38th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 74.3% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 10th and last year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Sheffield is quite overqualified for the BHOF by both the WAR and (especially) the WS player evaluation systems. The steroid allegations against him have kept him out of the BHOF for his full 10-year term on the writer’s ballot. Even with a substantial bump in his 10th and final year, Sheffield is finally going to time out. His fate is now in the hands of the appropriate Hall of Fame committee. God help him.
Comment: WS has Sheffield rated as the 38th greatest player of all time. WAR ranks him 183rd. Basically, WAR alleges that Sheffield played in the field like a crippled water buffalo. WR would rate him higher if he had just been a DH for his entire career. But this makes no sense at all. If he would have been more valuable as a DH, is it the player’s fault that his team required him to play in the outfield? If a player decreases his value by playing out of position for his team, who gets the discredit? The misplaced player or the team? As for the steroid allegations, the best case scenario is that Sheffield is telling the truth: he was briefly involved with BALCO (Barry Bonds’ steroid supplier), mistakenly used a steroid cream, and only knowingly bought vitamins from BALCO. The worst case scenario would be that Gary Sheffield, feeling his baseball career winding down to its end, dabbled in steroids briefly with BALCO in his waning years. Even if the worst case scenario is true, Sheffield should be elected in a landslide. Baseball owners, led by their Commissioner Bud Selig, let steroids taint the game while they tried to illegally break the Players Union. After they failed despite canceling the 1994 World Series and damn near wrecking the sport, these same men were then happy to profit off the steroid fueled home run boom while the drugs inundated Baseball. The minute that Bud Selig was inducted into the BHOF (2017), Baseball lost all moral authority to punish the players who got mixed up in steroids before their 2004 ban.
6) Andruw Jones: 62.7 WAR [163rd All Time]; 275.7 WS or so [the 283th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 70.7% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 7th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Other than the many steroid-tainted players, Jones probably has the most currently contentious BHOF case. WAR has him very comfortably over the 270th bottom line requirement, ranking him 163rd. But WS ranks him 283rd and believes that he is a marginal candidate. Of course, WAR has won the day as the player evaluation method of choice and it looks like Jones will get elected by the writers before his eligibility runs out. Although Jones will obviously not be elected in 2024, He still has three years of eligibility left and continues to make progress. It will help even more if all four men on the top of the ballot are elected this year, clearing the way for Jones to possibly get over the hump in 2025.
Comments: Whether you believe Jones is Hall of Famer or not depends a lot on how much faith you have in WAR’s defensive ratings. WAR believes that his defense was equal to 61.3% of his offense. Meanwhile, WS figures that his defense was equal to only 49.7% of his offense. WS sees Jones as a very great CF. But WAR sees him as perhaps the greatest centerfielder of all time. Jones had some unsavory personal incidents during his career (some 2001 strip club shenanigans & a 2012 domestic abuse allegation). How much these 2 issues have impacted his candidacy is unknown; but it seems like they have probably been responsible for keeping him out of the Hall for several additional years. If he does get elected, it will not be the worst thing in the world. He is right on the margin even by WS. There’s probably 50 or so Hall of Famers worse than him already. Of course, all this also completely ignores one indisputable fact: if Jones had simply kept himself in good shape after he turned 30, there would almost surely be no argument about his induction to the BHOF at all.
7) Carlos Beltran: 70.1 WAR [tied for 102nd All Time]; 368.7 WS or so [87th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 66.5% of 179 votes [49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 2nd year on the ballot.
Prognosis: It will obviously not be Beltran’s year in 2024. But 2025 is looking good after several other players come off the ballot. Beltran is overqualified for the BHOF by both WAR and WS but is still being punished by the writers for his role in the Astro’s 2017 sign stealing scandal.
Comment: Beltran makes a very interesting comparison with his fellow center fielder, Andruw Jones. Beltran clears the bar by a country mile under both of the ranking systems while Jones is a marginal candidate unless one accepts that WAR’s evaluation of him as the greatest center fielder of all time is not inaccurate. Beltran is being punished for possibly inventing an advanced sign stealing plan for his team but has otherwise always been considered a model citizen. Jones has no cheating accusations against him (though it could be argued that he “stole” his teams’ money by not staying in shape) but a couple of nasty personal blemishes. One of the problems with the moral judgments made by the Baseball writers who vote for the Hall of Fame is proportionality. Murder and jaywalking are both crimes. But one is a far greater crime. But it seems like the writers sometimes cannot tell the difference between Baseball crimes. Beltran, who has already been punished by losing the New York Mets’ managerial job, has already been properly chastised. Time to let him in.
8) Chase Utley: 64.5 WAR [tied for 144th All Time]; 288.9 WS or so [tied for 238th of All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 41.4% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the ballots counted]. His 1st year on the Ballot.
Prognosis: Utley is qualified for the BHOF by both WAR and WS, though WAR has him considerably higher by (perhaps) overvaluing his defense. The Hall of Fame tracker indicates that Utley will not come close to being elected in 2024. However, he is making a good showing in his 1st of 10 years on the Ballot. It seems like Utley’s election to the BHOF is eventually inevitable. It will just be a question of how long it takes.
Comment: In June 1997, when he was 18-years-old, Chase Utley was drafted in the 2nd round by the LA Dodgers out of high school. Rather than sign, he went to UCLA. In June 2000, Utley was drafted in the 1st round and signed by the Phillies. Utley marinated in the minors and then on the Phillie bench until finally playing his first full Major League season in 2005 at the age of 26. In a way, Utley is being punished for going to college. If he had signed with the Dodgers in 1997, there is a chance that he may have debuted in the Majors much sooner than he did, perhaps as early as 2000 or 2001 [his competition would have been the Dodger’s middle of the diamond banjo-hitters, Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora, for the most part]. If he was given back those four or five “lost” seasons at the beginning of his career, Utley’s bulk numbers would make his BHOF case much stronger. It doesn’t seem quite right to punish a man for getting an education. WAR finds that Utley’s defense is worth 33.7% of his offense while WS measures it as 31.8% That slight difference seems to be the main reason WAR ranks Utley 94 slots higher than WS.
9) Alex Rodriguez: 117.5 WAR [16th All Time!!!!!]; 492.0 WS or so [22nd All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 39.3% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 3rd year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Despite being completely over-qualified for the BBHOF and very obviously the best player on the ballot by both WAR & WS, ARod is doomed to twist in the wind until the 10-year-limit finally ends his candidacy. The year 2024 was number 3 on his 10-year-long road-to-nowhere.
Comment: Rodriguez is the most qualified player on the 2024 HOF ballot by a significant margin, leaving even Adrian Beltre in the dust. However, he is also a convicted steroid cheat from after the enforcement curtain came down. As such, he will spend eternity in the dustbin of Baseball history with Joe Jackson and Pete Rose. In fact, I would advocate the enshrinement of either Jackson or Rose long before inducting Rodriguez. It is interesting how time is washing away just how egregious and slimy his behavior was while he tried to escape any punishment at all for his sins.
10) Manny Ramirez: 69.3 WAR [108th All Time]; 408.6 WS or so [50th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 35.1% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 8th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Overqualified for the Hall of Fame by both WAR and WS. Pretty much admitted that he took steroids throughout his career. Would he have Hall of Fame stats without the juice? Just two more years until he falls off the ballot into whatever purgatory holds the Chicago eight, Pete Rose, Clemens, Bonds, eventually Alex Rodriguez et al.
Comment: Other than Alex Rodriguez (and perhaps Gary Sheffield), Manny Ramirez is the most qualified hitter on the ballot (though Rodriguez was way more valuable defensively, of course). Ramirez is, also like ARod, not going to elected to the BHOF because he was caught using steroids after testing and punishment began in 2004. But unlike ARod, Ramirez simply admitted that he used the juice and accepted the consequences without dispute. On the other hand, Rodriguez lied, threw people under the bus, refused to admit guilt, and generally acted like a complete dirtbag while fighting the allegations. So why is this not reflected in their BHOF vote totals? Why has Rodriguez, now in his 3rd year on the ballot consistently polled better than Manny despite the fact that Ramirez had already spent 5 years on the ballot when ARod arrived? Like many other things about Manny, it’s a mystery.
11) Bobby Abreu: 60.2 WAR [tied for 190th All Time]; 357.3 WS or so [95th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 19.4% of 179 votes [49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 5th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Despite being well over the qualification line for the BHOF by WAR (and quite over-qualified by WS), Bobby Abreu has made almost no headway to actually being elected. Now in his 5th year on the ballot, Abreu’s eventual election by the Baseball writers does not look good. He will probably have to wait until some BHOF committee re-evaluates him, in the distant future, when his statistics begin to outweigh his lack of pizzazz.
Comment: In the 1960s and 1970s, there was a prominent American rhythm & blues singer named Bobby Bland (“That’s the Way Love is” & “I Pity the Fool”) who had a long and fruitful career. But Bland is hardly as well remembered as his contemporaries Sam Cooke, Wilson Pickett, Otis Redding (& many others). I always think of Bobby Abreu as the Bobby Bland of Baseball. He did many things consistently well but never the monster season (or number one hit in Bobby Bland’s case) that would force someone to remember him. He was just there in the background, consistently excellent, but drawing only a little bit of attention to himself. While he was playing, I never once thought of Abreu as a Hall of Fame type player. But he was.
12t) Andy Pettitte: 60.2 WAR [tied for 190th All Time]; 226.2 WS or so [not even close All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 15.2% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 6th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: In 2024, Andy Pettitte will collect the highest number of votes for any starting pitcher on the BHOF ballot. And he will not even come close to being elected. His admitted use of Human Growth Hormone [HGH] seems to have scuttled his candidacy. He is 6 years in and making no progress.
Comment: Andy Pettitte is similar to two other pitchers on the 2024 ballot, Mark Buehrle and James Shields. All were workhouse starting pitchers, but Pettitte was surely the best of the three [before even considering his post-season work]. None of the three has really gotten any real support for the Hall of Fame [despite both Pettitte and Buehrle being completely qualified by the WAR system]. Pettitte, who is far more famous than either of the other 2 pitchers because of his long service as a New York Yankee and his post-season success, seems to be paying a heavy price for admitting he used HGH. Once again, it is a question of proportionality. HGH is definitely not steroids and Pettitte admitted that he was using it to heal an injury faster so that he could return to the field and earn all the money he was being paid. This is almost honorable. That the Baseball writers seem to be excessively punishing Pettitte for that is a disgrace. However, if that is not the reason for his lack of support, then one has to wonder what the BBWAA writers are thinking.
12t) Jimmy Rollins: 47.6 WAR [tied for 358th All Time]; 305.1 WS or so [tied for 194th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 15.2.% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 3rd year on the ballot.
Prognosis: If WS was the preferred metric, Rollins would probably be receiving much, much stronger support. He comfortably qualifies under WS. The WAR method is much more lukewarm on Rollins, not even rating him as someone who is a marginal Hall of Famer. His lack of WAR has him spinning his wheels so far in the annual ballots.
Comment: Rollins makes a very interesting pair with his long term keystone partner, Chase Utley. WS prefers Rollins over Utley for the BHOF. But WAR, the preferred metric, prefers Utley over Rollins. Of course, WS rewards bulk or, as some have phrased it, a player’s ability to post [show up and play]. It is easier to play well if you take some days off. But there is value in playing as much as possible too. Rollins played between 154 and 162 games 10 times in his career (including 7 straight years). On the other hand, Utley played from 154 to 162 games just four times. When evaluating players for the BHOF, you have to start with what you want to reward.
14) Omar Vizquel: 45.6 WAR [tied for 398th All Time]; 282.6 WS or so [tied for 258th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 10.5% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 7th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: The candidacy of Vizquel has been completely torpedoed by the revelations of martial discord and allegations of homosexual harassment. He has three more years until he falls off the ballot. That he stubbornly remains on the ballot seems to indicate that some BHOF voters are not bothered by wife beating or bat boy molestation.
Comment: Before the scandals, Vizquel was obviously headed to election. It would be interesting to know what would have happened if all this godawful publicity had come out after his election. Interestingly, like Jimmy Rollins, WS (which favors bulk careers) is very much in favor of electing Vizquel. But WAR doesn’t like him anywhere near the same.
15) Mark Buehrle: 59.1 WAR [201st All Time]; 220.6 WS or so [not known All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 7.9% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 4th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Buehrle, who is qualified by WAR but not even close by WS (like most pitchers), continues to stagnate on the annual BHOF ballot. He is, in some ways, the Bobby Abreu of pitchers.
Comment: I always think of Mark Buehrle as a pitcher who came right out of the Rick Reuschel starting pitcher mold. Reuschel [who went 214-191 during his career] was a very large pitcher who worked fast, threw strikes, and kept the game moving along, Mark Buehrle [214-160] was also a large man who worked fast, threw strikes, and kept the game moving. Interestingly, both men won exactly 214 games but Reuschel lost many more. Despite all this, Reuschel was a better pitcher than Buehrle. Reuschel just played for much worse teams over his career.
16t) Francisco Rodriguez: 24.2 WAR [somewhere around 1000th All Time]; 168.3 WS or so [also about 1000th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 6.8% of 179 votes counted [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 2nd year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Rodriguez will almost surely survive to be on the ballot for a third year, staying just above the minimum 5% threshold. But his candidacy has no traction. His chances of getting into the BHOF appear slim.
Comment: The candidacy of ace reliever Francisco Rodriguez serves as a very interesting bookend for ace reliever Billy Wagner’s case. If you just double his career WAR, Wagner qualifies for the BHOF. But if you double the career WAR of Rodriguez, he does not qualify [48.2 WAR would put Rodriguez in a tie with Bob Lemon for 341st place]. In other words, the double credit reward for the high leverage of an ace reliever’s work is not enough to push Rodriguez over the line. It remains to be seen if the Wagner/Rodriguez boundary holds going forward. Interestingly, if you double the Win Share [WS] total for Rodriguez, he would qualify. WS seems to reward ace reliever bulk work more than it does a starter’s bulk innings. I’m not sure why. So far, Rodriguez’ record 62 save season in 2008 does not seem to have had any impact on his candidacy. Unless it is the one thing keeping him on the ballot.
16t) David Wright: 49.2 WAR [329th All Time]; 266.1 WS or so [320th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 6.8% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: David Wright’s career was cut short by spinal stenosis with both WAR and WS having him right on the edge of the BHOF. It looks like he will have a “Don Mattingly” type time on the writers’ ballot. Mattingly, another player who had his BHOF career path cut short by back problems, lingered on the ballot for the full 10 years before shuffling off into Baseball limbo.
Comment: There was a great wave of third baseman at the beginning of the 21st Century: Adrian Beltre [debuted 1998]; Eric Chavez [1998]; Hank Blalock [2002]; David Wright [2004]; and even Evan Longoria [2008]. Wright may have been the greatest of all these third baseman, greater even than Beltre, if fate had just let him complete his career uninjured. However, like most of these third baseman, injuries derailed him. It would be interesting to know just how good Wright could have been absent the spinal stenosis that shortened and then ended his career. Note to self, write a post about this great wave of 3B.
18) Torii Hunter: 50.7 WAR [300th All Time]; 275.0 WS or so [285th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 4.7% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 4th year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Hunter does not qualify under either WAR or WS for the BHOF, though he is well into the grey area for both evaluations. In 2024, his luck seems to have run out. After surviving for 3 years, it looks like he will not make the 5% minimum to be back for his fifth try.
Comment: Torii Hunter makes a fascinating contrast with Andruw Jones. Both were well regarded centerfielders. WS has them as basically equal [Jones has a very slight edge 275.7 to 275.0]. But WAR has Jones as the far better player [62.7 to 50.7]. Their career paths couldn’t be more different. Jones came up in 1996 at 19-years old and starred in the World Series before even playing a full season. He played his first full season in 1997 and then was a star for the Atlanta Braves from 1998 to 2006. In 2007, just 30 years old, Jones had a (for him) poor season. And that was basically it. He played part-time, dogged by weight and injury issues, from 2008 to 2012 and his career was over at just 35. Hunter took a different path. He struggled in the minors from 1993 to 1997. In 1998, the 21-year-old Hunter had a decent year at Double-A. In 1999, the Minnesota Twins gave the 22-year old Hunter the CF job. He would start in the Major Leagues from 1999 until 2015 when he was 39. Hunter maintained his value exceedingly well. By WAR, his best seasons were 2009 [33 years old] and 2012 [36]. Hunter was always in shape, durable, and kept improving. In many ways, Hunter was the opposite of Andruw Jones. Off the field, Hunter had the reputation of a man of honor, depth, and focus. Which was also quite a contrast to Jones.
19) Jose Bautista: 36.7 WAR [tied for 641st All Time]; 229.2 WS or so [not very qualified All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 1.6% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Bautista doesn’t qualify for the BHOF under either the WAR or WS systems. His first year on the ballot will be his last year on the ballot. He will not be making any spectacular bat flips on the Cooperstown lawn.
Comment: Jose Bautista had the back half of a BHOF career. If he had been a golfer, he would have played the first nine holes of his career like an absolute amateur and then played the back nine like one of the best ball strikers on the pro tour. It’s too bad that Bautista didn’t discover the timing mechanism that unleashed his formidable power in 2003 or 2004 rather than very late in 2009. If he had, Bautista would have probably accumulated 25 to 35 more WAR and had a very interesting, if not inevitable, BHOF case. You can combine the back end of Bautista’s career to the front end of Andruw Jones’ career to make one hell of a BHOF candidate.
20) Victor Martinez: 32.0 WAR [tied for 804th All Time]; 230.9 WS or so [not close All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 1.0% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Martinez is not supported by either WAR or WS for induction into the BHOF. He was a very good professional hitter. If he was a beer, he would be Bud Lite to Miguel Cabrera’s top-of-the-line Bud. The year 2024 will be his first and last on the Hall of Fame ballot.
Comment: Victor Martinez was one of those players who had a monster year, completely out of context with the rest of their career, that was worthy of a Hall of Fame player. Many players have these types of years [Kevin Mitchell in 1989, 47 HRs-125 RBIs-.291, MVP]. But very few (if any) have this type of year in their mid-30s. In 2014, the 35-year-old Martinez hit 32 HRs-103 RBIs-.335 BA for the Detroit Tigers. He set career highs in HRs, BA, on-base percentage and slugging. He also had the best WAR of his career. His OPS+ was a very sparkling 172 [meaning he was 72% better than the average hitter]. The next best OPS+ in his career was just 131 in 2011. It goes without saying that, if the rest of his career had been much more like 2014, Victor Martinez would have had a one hell of a better case for the BHOF.
21t) Matt Holliday: 44.5 WAR [tied for 431st All Time]; 266.8 WS or so [313th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 0.5% of 179 votes [approximately 49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Both WAR and WS together do not see Matt Holliday as a BHOF member. This will be his first and only year on the BHOF ballot. But there is a non-zero chance that he still gets to go to Cooperstown. It will just be as the father of Jackson Holliday.
Comment: In 1998, the 18-year-old Matt Holliday signed with the Rockies and began playing in their minor league system. His minor league career was, to say the least, not particularly inspiring. By 2003, he had risen only to Double A, two levels below the Major Leagues, where he hit just 12 HRs while batting .253 and slugging .395. Despite this, the Rockies gave him their left field job in 2004; and he was off and running [14 HRs-.290 BA-.488 SA]. Of course, he played in a hitter’s park but this hardly explains both a two level jump and all that increase in offense . He was even better in 2005 [19 HRs-.307-.505], and then exploded in 2006 [34 HRs-.326-.586] and 2007 [36 HRs-.340-.607]. What happened to so quickly turn around Holliday’s career from 2003 to 2007? At this point, it is a puzzle. Unlike his former teammate Todd Helton, Holliday got a chance to prove that he could hit at sea level too. From 2009 to 2014, Holliday was a pretty potent bat for the St. Louis Cardinals. Perhaps because of his reserved demeanor, Holliday always struck me as a “Kevin McReynolds” type: someone who wasn’t getting exactly 100% out of their talent.* With the insane drive of a Ty Cobb, would Matt Holiday have been an inner circle Hall of Famer? Possibly, but he probably wouldn’t have been as happy.
*Kevin McReynolds was a star outfielder for the New York Mets (among other teams). He gave the impression that he would rather be anywhere other than a Baseball field.
21t) Bartolo Colon: 46.2 WAR [tied for 387th All Time]; 204.7 WS or so [just nowhere close All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 0.5% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Bartolo Colon does not qualify for the BHOF under either the WAR or WS system. The year 2024 will be the only year that Bartolo Colon appears on the BHOF Ballot.
Comment: Bartolo Colon will go down as a hugely fun and interesting former Baseball player but an induction into the Hall of Fame is not in his future. His career path is actually fascinating [1997 to 2018, ages 24-45]. Basically he was a fireball throwing starting pitcher from 1998 to 2005. Then he was lost in the woods for awhile from 2006 to 2009. Then, he finished his career as a control artist starter from 2009 to 2016 (with his last two years, 2017 and 2018 spent proving that he no longer had it). Few pitchers have such a clearly delineated career as first a flame thrower and then a command kingpin.
23t) James Shields: 30.7 WAR [tied for 847th All Time]; 133.8 WS or so [God only knows where All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 0.0% of 179 votes [~49.7% of the Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Neither the WAR nor WS systems see Shields as a qualified Hall of Famer. He will have to settle for having the totally cool modern nickname of “Big Game James” [so few modern baseball nicknames are as good as the old school ones from 100 years ago].
Comment: During his career, James Shields did a partial “Don Sutton.” From 2007 to 2015, he was a good to very good workhouse starter. He was never really great (peak years of 16-12 and 15-10 in 2011 and 2012) but still very reliable. But pitchers like this get into the BHOF only if they do the full “Don Sutton” (over 20 years as a dependable Clydesdale). Neither WAR nor WS see Shields as a BHOF inductee on even his best day [or year].
23t) Jose Reyes: 37.4 WAR [tied for 620th All Time]; 255.5 WS or so [378th or so All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 0.0% of 179 votes [approximately 49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Jose Reyes does not qualify under WAR or WS. His BHOF dream will die with this year’s ballot. In other words, this will be his only year on the BHOF ballot.
Comment: Jose Reyes, like many other players, started his career like he was on the highway to the BHOF. Between 2006 to 2008 when he was 23 to 25 years old, Reyes looked like a superstar in incubation. But then it just didn’t happen. Injuries sapped his speed and health, his power and plate discipline never developed, and his career petered out in his early 30s. But there was a BHOF dream there at one time.
23t) Brandon Phillips: 28.4 WAR [tied for 953rd All Time]; 209.0 WS or so [God only knows All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 0.0% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st and last year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Brandon Phillips is a Hall of Fame ballot consolation prize player. In other words, he is on the Hall of ballot simply so he can take pride in that fact. But 2024 will be his only year on the ballot.
Comment: Brandon Phillips was a very good second baseman. But neither WS nor WAR sees him as a viable Hall of Famer. A viable candidate for the BHOF under WAR should accumulate close to 50 Wins Above Replacement. In other words, ten seasons of 5.0 WAR would make the player viable. But realistically, the player should have some peak seasons of 7.5 or so WAR. Did Phillips ever come close to 7.5 WAR in a single season? No, his best year was just 4.9 WAR in 2011 and his career total of 28.4 WAR is only slightly more than half way to an actually viable BHOF case.
23t) Adrian Gonzalez: 43.5 WAR [tied for 456th All Time]; 286.4 WS or so [tied for 249th All Time]; HOF Tracker today: 0.0% of 179 votes [~49.7% of Ballots counted]. His 1st and last year on the ballot.
Prognosis: Gonzalez would have had a much better chance under the WS system (in which he qualifies) rather than the WAR system (where he is not close). With WAR ascendent, the HOF tracker has him currently voteless. He will not be on the 2025 ballot.
Comment: Absent injuries, Gonzalez could have certainly had a BHOF career. After his October 2010 shoulder surgery for a torn labrum, he was never the same hitter. He had one last great season [2011] by changing his swing from a pretty power hitting uppercut to a formidable line drive stroke before the continuing degradation of his shoulder sapped his might. Despite that 2010 surgery, Gonzalez was extremely durable, playing 156 or more games every season from 2006 to 2016. But then a herniated disk in his back crippled him during the 2017 and 2018 seasons and forced him into retirement. Gonzalez displays very interestingly the differences between the WAR and WS player evaluation systems. WAR, which values defense and peak highly, has Adrian Gonzalez [rated 456th] not even close to the LCDM line of 270th to qualify for the BHOF. But WS, which values offense and bulk, rates Gonzalez as one of 249th best players of all time, comfortably over the LCDM boundary. If WS rather than WAR was the chosen method of evaluation, it is likely that Adrian Gonzalez’s candidacy for the BHOF would have not been so quickly dismissed.
Conclusion
The 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame class will consist of: 1. Jim Leyland [already voted in as a field manager]; 2) Adrian Beltre [3B], 3. Joe Mauer [C]; 4. Todd Helton [1B]; and possibly 5. Billy Wager [relief pitcher]. For the Baseball Hall of Fame’s sake, it will be nice to see a nice big 2024 class. But it will be even nicer to just see a bunch of the worthy players cleared off the ballot, all at once, to make room for some other worthy players now buried on the ballot.
Breaking the 2024 BHOF Ballot Down by Categories:
1) Qualified by WAR & WS and being elected [3]: Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer;
2) Not qualified by WAR or WS and possibly being elected [1]: Billy Wagner;
3) Qualified by WAR and WS and NOT being elected or removed from the ballot: [6] Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltran, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, and Chase Utley;
4) Qualified by only WAR and NOT being elected or removed from the ballot: [3]: Mark Buehrle, Andruw Jones, and Andy Pettitte;
5) Qualified by only WS and NOT being elected or removed from the ballot [2]: Jimmy Rollins and Omar Vizquel;
6) Qualified by only WS but NOT being selected and dropped from the ballot: [1] Adrian Gonzalez;
6) Not qualified by either WAR or WS and NOT being dropped from the ballot [2]: Francisco Rodriguez and David Wright;
7) Not qualified by either WAR or WS and being dropped from the ballot [8]: Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Torii Hunter, Victor Martinez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes and James Shelds,.
My personal ballot [in order if only I had a vote]: 1) Adrian Beltre, 2) Gary Sheffield, 3) Carlos Beltran, 4) Joe Mauer, 5) Andy Pettitte, 6) Bobby Abreu, 7) Chase Utley. Arod and Manny Kept out by steroids.