Monthly Archives: December 2021

The Once and Future Lock Out

Reggie Dunlop: Let ’em know you’re there! Get that stick in their side, let ’em know you’re there! Put some lumber in their teeth, let ’em know you’re there! Ned Braden: Bleed all over ’em, let ’em know you’re there. Slapshot (a 1977 Hockey Movie)

December 16, 2021

Many authors have used the game of Baseball as a metaphor for the United States of America as a whole. Often the metaphor is stretched so thin that it breaks. Hopefully, this post will not be one of those times. One of the central problems in this country right now is supposedly wealth inequality. The rich get richer and richer, the once prosperous middle class watches their money and their spending power and then their very jobs slip away, and the poor live to be exploited by the rich. Or, to quote an acquaintance, the billionaires just get richer and richer without ever giving anything back, the middle class makes less and less and pays more and more for goods and services every year, and the poor work themselves to death in Amazon warehouses while wasting the rest of their lives on Facebook. The current economic situation in baseball certainly resembles this financial spiral, though it would be hard to argue that anyone in Baseball is working themselves to death.

In baseball, the rich (the owners and the star players) get richer and richer. The middle class (the fans and the regular players) watch their respective spending power and jobs slip away. And the poor (minor league players not on the Major League 40 man roster and those potential players subject to a player draft) are exploited like cattle. With the expiration of the 2016 contract between the Major League Owners and Players at the stroke of midnight on December 1st of 2021, these trends (or at least the trend in which the owners get richer and richer at the expense of everyone else) is once again up for negotiation. The Baseball Owners, who are quite happy with the status quo, immediately locked the Players out and brought the business of Major League Baseball to a complete halt. This pre-emptive “Lock Out” will continue until some agreement on these economic issues gets forged. Thus the question of the day is: “When will this Lock Out end?” To even attempt to answer this question, first we should look at the history.

Quick Baseball Labor History Recap

The greatest expanse of Major League Baseball History, from 1871 to 1965, is simply one long tale of the Baseball Club Owners enriching themselves off the labor of their underpaid and exploited Players. In the year 1922, the Baseball Owners even received an anti-trust exemption from the U.S. Supreme Court in a bizarre decision that suggests the Owners bought the Court off. The Players started to organize (not for the first time) in 1953; but the Players Union really began in 1966 when they hired Marvin Miller, a professional labor organizer. With Miller in charge until his retirement in 1983, the Baseball Players Union won victory after victory over the Owners. By 1983, Players simply had to play for two seasons under Owner control and could become free agents after six seasons. Their salaries for seasons three to five were set by arbitration which was based on the free agent salaries. This economic set-up was basically an engine that drove player salaries ever higher. The Major League clubs in small markets began to reportedly struggle.

From 1984 to 1995, the Owners fought an economic war against the Players Union to roll back salaries. In 1984, they fired their long term Commissioner and stooge, Bowie Kuhn, whose main claim to fame was losing every round to Miller. The Owners hired Peter Ueberroth to be their new Commissioner. In the 1985 CBA negotiations, the Players Union agreed to let the Owners push back arbitration to three, rather than two, years of service. After that victory (and with Ueberroth’s urging), the Owners continued their war by cheating from 1985 until 1987. The Owners illegally colluded with each other to set the players’ salaries. Federal Courts would punish the Owners to the tune of $280 million dollars for this tactic. After this defeat, Ueberroth was replaced by Bart Giamatti as the Commissioner in 1988. Before he had any real chance to lead the Owners, Giamatti died in 1989. He was replaced by his friend and Deputy Commissioner, Faye Vincent, who decided to act as if Commissioner was an independent party, not a hireling of the Owners.

Like most employers, the Owners were not happy about an employee acting like he ran the show. In 1992, Faye Vincent was replaced by the Owners with one of their own, Bud Selig (the owner of the very small market Milwaukee Brewers). Selig led the Baseball Owners into the apocalypse, a baseball strike by the Players that wiped out not only the rest of the 1994 season, but also the 1994 World Series and the beginning of the 1995 season.

The Genius of the Bud Selig

With the advantage of hindsight, it is now apparent that Bud Selig defeated the Players Union in the 1994/95 conflict. A kind reading of this history would credit Selig with establishing a labor peace that lasted until the current day. A more unkind interpretation would accuse him of negotiating to enrich himself above all else and accidentally hitting upon the correct formula to enrich all of the Owners. Selfish or not, Selig basically made it impossible for the owner of a Major League Baseball club to lose money. As part of the 1995 Settlement Agreement with the Players, Bud Selig also got his fellow Owners to agree to redistribute income from the Large Market Teams to the Small Market Teams [i.e himself and others like him]. This Redistribution Plan funneled the money through the office of the Baseball Commissioner. This redistribution, coupled with ever increasing national broadcast money that was shared by the owners equally, made any Baseball Owner bulletproof. By not fielding a competitive team and cutting expenses, any Owner could easily turn a profit by just raking in the redistribution and National TV money.

The fact that any Owner could make a bundle of money by not even trying to field a competitive team was immediately apparent. The Florida [now Miami] Marlins led the way in both directions by spending a ton of money on players to win the 1997 World Series and then immediately dismantling their team to take advantage of Bud Selig’s safety net. The Marlins reportedly made even more money in 1998 than they did in 1997.* Wayne Huizenga, the owner of the Marlins, was at the forefront of another revolution. Huizenga, the founder of companies (such as Blockbuster Video and Waste Management Inc.) was a businessman through and through. He treated his team simply as a vehicle to maximize profits in whichever way possible. The old school Baseball Owners, who usually ran their teams like southern plantations, would become baseball dinosaurs shambling toward extinction. Bud Selig, who would be the Baseball Commissioner from 1992 to 2014, was also deeply involved with changing the very type of baseball owners involved in the game.

* Ironically, the owners added 4 teams in 1993, using their entry fees to pay off the $280 million dollar collusion debt. The Marlins were one of the new teams].

From the 1995 Collective Bargaining Agreement [CBA] that ended the Strike until the most recent 2016 CBA that just expired on December 1, 2021, the Owners’ Negotiators with the Union followed a simple two-pronged strategy. First, they worked to limit how much money any of the Large Market teams could spend on players (with a “Luxury Tax”); and, second, reduce any money going to Non-Union talent. In other words, the Owners strategy was to limit the amount of money being spent at the top and the bottom. The Owners won every round. In each and every CBA negotiation, the owners either 1) made it more onerous for Large Market teams to spend unlimited funds, or 2) reduced any leverage that amateur players had to negotiate for their actual market worth. The 2011 and 2016 CBAs with the Union were the culmination of this long string of victories. At the same time, the so-called “Money Ball” revolution resulted in more and more Major League front offices applying normal business strategies to running the teams. The combination of the downward pressure on expenses at both ends and the change from basically amateur to professional business management accelerated the transfer of more and more of the profits generated by the teams from the Players to the Owners.

The Parties to the Negotiation

With the labor history summarized, we will now discuss the different parties that each have a stake in the negotiations. Understanding their motivations will then help us try to answer the question: “When will this Lock Out end?” There are actually six distinct parties in this labor negotiation. The first party would be the Small Market Team Owners [SMTO]. The second party would be the Large Market Team Owners [LMTO]. In the negotiations, these two parties are represented by the Commissioner’s Office [CO]. The third party would be the Star Major League Players [SMLP]. The fourth party would be the Normal (or Non-Star) Major League Players [NMLP]. The third and fourth parties have the Major League Player’s union [PU] as their representative. The fifth party would be the drafted and non-unionized minor league players. This party can be collectively called the Cannon Fodder. And, of course, the sixth and last party would be the Fans. Neither the fifth or the sixth party are represented in this negotiation at all. And, for all intents and purposes, the Commissioner’s Office really represents the Small Market Team Owners and the Player’s Union represents the Star Major League Players. In other words, the Lock Out will end when the fully represented parties (SMTO and SMLP) are able to placate the partially represented parties (LMTO and NMLP) at the complete expense of the unrepresented parties. We will discuss each party in reverse order.

Party #6: The Fans

The Fans are irrelevant to the negotiation itself. The CBA negotiation is about how the players and owners will split up the baseball pie (i.e. money). No one will be offering a piece of this pie to the Fans. Tickets or concession prices will not be reduced. Still there will be a vocal subset of fans insisting that they are being cheated somehow. The Players Union usual tactic is to ignore the Fans. But the Owners strategy often includes stated sympathy for the Fans. This is mostly just a bid to keep the Fans on their side and ready to come back when the issue is settled. But it is actually just a bunch of hot air. The Owners and their representatives have even been claiming that their concern for the Fans is responsible for the long period of labor peace from 1995 to 2021. In 1995, the Fans were initially slow to come back. Owners and their reps have stated that they do not want this to happen again. But the actual fact of the matter is that, aided by Ripkin’s consecutive game streak and the steroids-induced destruction of the single season home run record, the 1994-95 Strike had no real lasting effect. The real reason for the long period of labor peace from 1995 to 2021 is that the Owners have basically won every CBA since the Strike, not any actual concern for the Fans.

The real way that Fans get to participate in Baseball Labor Negotiations is simply as an audience for propaganda from both sides (but usually from the Owners). Interestingly, the Owners, a group of billionaires, like to characterize the Players, mostly millionaires, as being greedy. And there are always some Fans who cannot simply see that every dollar taken from the Players will just go right into the Owners’ pockets. The reasons the Owners use this tactic is actually unclear (other then just sheer spite). By angering the players, it does little to help the negotiations; and the Owners are also simply denigrating their own product. It does help that the Owners are a very much smaller group than the Players Union (30 owners versus 1200 players). This makes it much easier for the Owners to stay on message. But this particular message is just counter-productive. And the ironic aspect of this message is that many (if not most) of the Owners are very rich because they engaged in fraudulent, unethical, greedy business practices. Despite whatever in the Good Lord’s name is wrong with Trevor Bauer, usually the worst personal trait of any of the players is simply immaturity. On the other hand, the Baseball Owners, usually drenched in avarice, are (on the average) a far more reprehensible group of reprobates than the Players.

Party #5: Non-Union Baseball Players

The Major League Baseball Players Union represents all the Players on each team’s 40 man roster. In other words, the Players Union does represent some Minor League players. Despite this, the Union has never advocated for the Minor Leaguers or any players being drafted into the Minor Leagues or any players signed as undrafted free agents. This seems strange since everyone in the Union originally comes from these groups. In reality, the Players Union only really represents the interests of those Players who have lasted over two years in the Major Leagues and reached arbitration. If anything, this is the greatest failing of the Players Union: a complete indifference to those aspiring to join it. The Owners have exploited this flaw. From the very beginning, the economic strategy of the Union has been to transfer wealth from the younger players to the veteran players. Eventually, this led to the Owners adopting the strategy of hiring younger novice players to replace the more fungible Union players on their rosters. Over the last 25 years, the Owners cabal has done everything that they can think of to artificially depress the payments to or compensation for any and all players who do not belong to the Union.

The exploitation of employees beginning their careers is a common strategy of both Employers and Unions. Law Firms demand that their associates work minimum 80 hour weeks. The American Medical Association allows interns to be worked to the point of exhaustion. Many fraternities in Colleges haze their pledges unmercifully. Baseball has been no different. Low pay and long bus rides for Minor League players are celebrated as bonding experiences. The really interesting question is: why? By ignoring the Minor Leaguers, the Union has allowed the Owners to use them against the Major League players. Why doesn’t the Players Union organize the Minor Leaguers? Or why do they not simply advocate for the players in the Minor Leagues? Stories abound of the Owners “Simon Legree” like tactics against them. The Union could easily win a publicity battle against the Owners simply by pointing out how terribly they treat the Minor League players and demanding change. Especially since it is probably fair to say that, until the Players Union finally begin to advocate for (or simply take an interest in) the well-being of the Players who are not in the union, the Owners will have a natural advantage over the Union itself.

Party #4: Normal Major League Players

The normal, or non-star, baseball players have been watching their earning power evaporate under the current CBA. The average Major League baseball salary has reportedly gone done 5% since 2017. But the median salary has reportedly fallen a much more impressive 30%. The rate of decrease must be even larger than that for the players who are on the bottom half of the pay scale. It is obvious that the salaries of normal Major Leaguers will continue to fall unless changes are made. What is causing this decimation of the salaries of the non-star baseball players? These Players are caught in between. Their salaries are controlled by the clubs until they have been in the Major Leagues for the first three years (for all intents and purposes). Then, rather than go to arbitration with these players, the clubs simply release them. The engine that used to drive salaries upwards has gone silent for these unfortunate middle and lower-middle class of baseball players. Significantly, the Owners have characterized even modest modifications to the arbitration system (such as arbitration at 2 years and free agency at 5 years) as “extreme” and not up for discussion, much less negotiation.

The relevant question here is: can this even be remedied? The owners and their front offices, influenced by the “Moneyball” generation executives, have become much more skilled at putting the dollar sign on the muscle for non-star players. Why should the Major League front offices bid or drive up the salaries of the more fungible Major League players when it is much cheaper to simply replace them with cost-controlled pre-arbitration players? There would obviously be some degradation of level of talent playing. But would it even be noticeable to the average Fan? The only way the Players Union can really protect the non-star Players is by raising the cost to the Owners of the Minor League and non-arbitration qualified Major Leaguers. There are several ways that the Union can do this: 1) raising the minimum salary of the players who are not yet eligible for arbitration; 2) lowering the minimum amount of player service time to be eligible for arbitration; or 3) penalizing the teams for releasing players once they have qualified for arbitration. All of this could be done. But it will have to be fought for by the players who are not affected by it: the Star Players.

Party #3: Star Major League Players

The Major League Stars, as shown by the spending frenzy by Major League teams right before the Lock Out, will always get paid. Whether the long term drag on all the other player’s salaries will eventually affect them in turn is an open question. As Jim Bouton pointed out long ago in his book Ball Four, the baseball player hierarchy is completely star oriented. Your production on the field directly reflects your influence among the Players for the most part. This is a two-edged sword. For instance, Player Union Representatives (if they are star players) are basically immune to any type of retribution for their Union activities. But they are also farther removed from the concerns of the rank and file. Star Players, whose careers may span 20 years or more and include multiple contracts for their services, have a different outlook than the normal player who will wash out of the Major Leagues in five years and may only get one shot at selling their services to the highest bidder. In many ways, the key question for how strong the Players Union stands is just how committed these Star Players are to less fortunate members. On the other hand, the Owners, who are basically making the star players very rich men, have a tightrope to walk. They must give just enough to seem to be reasonable without insulting or awakening the competitive instincts of the Star Players

Party #2: Large Market Team Owners

Years ago in 1992, the Large Market Team Owners ceded their power to the Small Market Owners by electing Bud Selig, the consummate Small Market Owner, as Acting and later Full Commissioner of Baseball. At the time, this decision certainly seemed to be contrary to the best interests of these Large Market teams. But the decision was rewarded by sky-rocketing team values, ever-increasing profits, often times publicly subsidized Stadiums, and actual victories over the Players Union. So at this point, there is little to no hope that the Large Market Teams will do anything but continue to follow the lead of present Commissioner Rob Manfred, the protegee of Bud Selig and a Small Market Team protector. And, to be fair, why shouldn’t they? When the Lock Out is over, the Big Markets will go back to minting money under whatever system is agreed to. There is no real reason for them to act right now.

Party #1: Small Market Team Owners

Of course, the Small Market Team Owners are the actual power behind the empty throne of the Baseball Commissioner.* Rob Manfred is their man and Bud Selig is their patron saint. Their objective in these negotiations, as it has been since 1995, is to retain and protect their right to make an enormous profit no matter how poorly they run their teams or how little they actually try to compete. To return to the initial question of: “How long will the Lock Out last?” It all depends on how intransient the Small Market Team Owners are. So far, the signs of their intransience are immense. Through Manfred, they have informed the Players Union that they will not negotiate on: 1) changing the revenue sharing between Small and Large Market Teams, 2) allowing any Players to reach free agency earlier; 3) shortening the period that it takes for players to qualify for arbitration; or 4) bringing a multitude of other issues to the table. If the messaging signals the intent, the Small Market Owners are prepared to fight a Second Baseball World War to protect their right to make a profit regardless of their own incompetence.

* An empty throne in the sense that the Commissioner supposedly was hired to rule in the best interests of Baseball, not just the Owners themselves.

Parameters of the Negotiation

For the first time in a long time, the Major League Owners are beginning the negotiations for a new CBA on the defensive. If they were given the chance to resign the previous CBA, they would probably leap quickly for the pen. So far, their counter-proposals have been somewhat ludicrous, such as: 1) tying arbitration awards to the Wins Above Replacement statistic, 2) Lowering the Luxury Cap to 180 million per year while putting in a soft salary floor of 100 million per year per team , 3) installing a basic lottery for draft picks. etc. If the Player Union’s reports that the Owners are not actually negotiating at all yet are true, the 2022 Lock Out will basically become a blinking contest. As blinking contests are inherently stupid, the outlook for this Lock Out is not good, not good at all.

Lock Out Prediction

The Major League Baseball Owners did not have to institute the Lock Out at midnight on December 1st, 2021. But it was clearly in their best interest to do so. The negotiations for the new Collective Bargaining Agreement [CBA] with the Players were inevitably going to be extremely difficult. The Owners had not only clearly won both the preceding 2011 and 2016 negotiations; but they had also, according to the Players themselves, violated the “spirit” of their past agreements. There is palpable anger amongst the Players. Negotiations with another party that feels tricked or lied to are exceeding difficult. And, in the 1994-95 Strike, the Owners did not lock out the Players. The Players then went on Strike at the time of maximum benefit to themselves, deep into the season and threatening the World Series. By striking when they had received most of their paychecks for the season but before the Owners most lucrative event, the Players exerted maximum leverage. By locking the Players out now, the Owners maximize the time to negotiate before the Players can threaten the World Series again. You cannot blame the Owners for having institutional memory.

We believe that the Lock Out will last, at the very least, deep into the 2022 Spring Training and that there is a more than 50/50 chance that some actual early season games will be canceled. The Owners have defeated the Players again and again since 1995. At some point, the Players will settle for what is being offered. Most likely, the settlement will include mostly superficial issues such as: 1) Adopting the universal DH, 2) Some type of lottery for draft pick order, 3) Elimination of the draft pick compensation for teams that lose free agents, and 4) Raising the Luxury Tax Threshold. But the core issue, the fact that Baseball teams can win by losing, will be untouched. The Owners will almost surely not give more than an inch on their exploitation of non-Union players too. And the Owner’s will probably insist on some things simply by claiming that they need to get something too (for instance: expanded play offs, even greater penalties for exceeding the Luxury Tax Threshold, and/or advertising patches on uniforms). The basic fact is that, while the Players are fighting for things that indirectly harm them, the more cohesive Owners are struggling with issues that directly benefit them.

Our prediction, the Players Union will end up with some concessions. But the Owners will win this round too, simply by giving up very little and still getting a lot back.

The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Election, Part 5.  Results from the Early Baseball & Golden Age Era Committees

One knows so little. When one knows more, it is too late. Agatha Christie

December 7, 2022

The two Baseball Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee’s Sub-Committees that were voting on possible 2022 inductees released their results on December 5, 2021. The new inductees were as expected [Minnie Minoso and John “Buck” O’Neil], somewhat unexpected [Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, and Tony Oliva], and out of left field [Bud Fowler]. Buck O’Neil was elected as an Executive/Pioneer. All five of the other candidates were apparently simply elected as players.* Most importantly, two of the six men elected are still alive [Kaat and Oliva]. As both men played primarily for the Minnesota Twins, their induction day at 1:30 p.m. on July 24, 2022 will obviously be a very good day for the Twins franchise and its fans. In this post, I will examine all six of these elections as best I can.

*[Update 12/31/2021: Bud Fowler was apparently elected as a Executive (slash Pioneer) rather than as a Player also.]

Jim Kaat & Tony Oliva

In retrospect, there is one interesting aspect of this election that I certainly should have considered more thoroughly, but did not. Entrance to the Hall of Fame has two doors. The front door is completely controlled by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America [BBWA]. The back door is controlled by the Baseball Hall of Fame itself. By allowing the BBWA to control the front door, the Baseball Hall of Fame has always created a serious problem for itself. At various times, the BBWA has not elected any players at all. For instance, they did not elect anyone in 2013. They also did not elect anyone in 2021. The baseball writers’ guild then invariably congratulates themselves on preserving the purity of the Hall or maintaining the high standards of the Hall or simply pulls some explanation out of thin air that justifies their inaction. It is all the same to them. No matter what happens, the baseball writers get a story to pontificate about.

However, if the BBWA does not let anyone in the front door, the Baseball Hall of Fame can be left with their hat in their hand. For the most part, the players elected by the BBWA are still among the living. Conversely, the players being invited by the Hall of Fame to join the party through the back door are quite often dead. The last thing that the Baseball Hall of Fame wants is to not have a living inductee at their Hall of Fame ceremony. A party is usually more fun than a wake. Of the 20 players being considered by the the Early Baseball Era and Golden Days Era Committees, only three of the candidates were alive: Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, and Maury Wills. In retrospect, the election and induction of one or two (or even all 3) of these living candidates was probably inevitable. Especially since there is a very good chance that the BBWA will keep the front door locked shut once again in 2022.

Some members of the baseball writers’ fraternity have what they feel to be perfectly good reasons to slam the door right in the face of almost every main candidate returning for another shot at being elected by them in 2022. These candidates include Curt Schilling, who wore a shirt advocating that journalists should be killed; Barry Bonds, who took enough steroids to turn himself into Babe Ruth; and Roger Clemens, who also almost surely took steroids and has some other disturbing scandals attached. These three players finished 1-2-3 on the 2021 ballot. And all three are actually completely overqualified for the Hall of Fame. In addition to them, the 2022 ballot is also littered with a whole bunch of other returning steroid or possible steroid abusers: Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa. Each of these players would also already be elected if they had just been clean. And the cherry on the top would have to be Omar Vizquel. He also returns for another opportunity to be elected, but his Hall of Fame chances have probably been destroyed by recent revelations of both domestic abuse and sexual harrassment accusations.

Joining all these damned candidates this year are: 1) David Ortiz, who may or may not have flunked a supposedly totally confidential steroid test way back at the beginning of his career but then never ever flunked another one, and 2) Alex Rodriguez, who apparently took so many steroids that he had dreams of being a centaur. By accomplishment, the best clean and untainted candidate in 2022 would probably be Scott Rolen. At the very least, five of these dirty candidates have better credentials than Rolen. But it could easily be argued that there are eight who had better careers. But all 5 to 8 of these candidates are unlikely to be elected. And the mere presence of all these over-qualified but tainted candidates on the ballot will crowd many other possible untainted candidates right off the ten player maximum ballot.

In 1994, the baseball analyst and historian Bill James wrote a book about the Hall of Fame entitled: “The Politics of Glory.” That is a fabulous title. Despite being a great title, it was changed when the book was later reissued. It was probably deemed not specific enough (Whose politics? What glory?) for the casual reader. However, the 2022 election of Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva to the Baseball Hall of Fame surely shows those politics of glory in action. One has to wonder if either would have been elected if the Hall did not desperately need to ensure that there was a living player at the podium. On the other hand, both Kaat and Oliva are currently over 80 years old. They would not have been eligible to be elected for another five years. Better to honor them now then after they have passed away. I sincerely congratulate Jim Katt and Tony Oliva.

One final thought: it will be very interesting if David Ortiz is also elected this year. Kaat and Oliva are Minnesota Twins idols through and through. Ortiz started his career with the Twins too. But Ortiz, who goes down in history as a Boston Red Sox player, has been quite outspoken about his, shall we say, low opinion of the Twins organization. If all three are on the podium at the same time, the baseball world can be sure that irony is not dead.

Gil Hodges & Minnie Minoso

I also congratulate both Minnie Minoso and Gil Hodges on their election. Of course, it would have been far better for the overqualified Minnie Minoso to have been honored during his lifetime. And Gil Hodges, also deceased, is finally allowed to join his teammates (Jackie, Pee Wee, and the Duke) in the shrine. In the discussion about their election, one very interesting fact was mentioned. Minoso and Hodges (and Kaat and Oliva) were all elected by the Golden Days Era Committee. This Committee consisted of 16 members and 12 votes were needed for election. The ballot consisted of 10 players. What I did not know was that each member could only vote for 4 players. This, of course, means that the maximum number of votes was 64 (if each voter cast all four ballots with no blanks); and it also means that an absolute maximum of five players could be elected (5×12=60 ballots). It was stated that Minoso got 14 votes while Hodges, Kaat and Oliva all got 12 each. This, of course is 50 votes. But then it was also reported that Dick Allen got 11 votes and that Maury Wills got the other three. This would account for all 64 votes with just 5 players accounting for 61 of those votes.

This is actually quite interesting. It seems like the Golden Days Era Committee focused on exactly five candidates (the max they could elect). The other five candidates (Ken Boyer, Roger Maris, Danny Murtaugh, Billy Pierce, and Maury Wills) were then for the most part discarded. The Committee certainly did not seem to rely much on modern baseball analysis. Ken Boyer, who has the most wins above replacement [WAR being the most commonly used stat currently to sum up career value] of any of the players, does not seem to have gotten a single vote. Like politicians rigging an election, the members of the Golden Days Era Committee must have horse traded until almost all of their favorite candidates got elected. The one exception was Dick Allen who fell just one vote short. Was the Committee afraid that it would look odd if they ran the table and elected the max of 5 players? In any event, the family and friends of Dick Allen can probaly begin preparing for his almost inevitable election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2026 (induction in 2027) when the Golden Days Era Committee gets its next chance to kick in the back door.

Buck O’Neil & Bud Fowler

Unlike the Golden Days Era Committee, the 16 members of the Early Baseball Era Committee could not get their act together and try to ensure that as many of their candidates as humanly possible got into the Hall of Fame. Reportedly, Buck O’Neil got 13 votes and Bud Fowler got 12. This means that two of the inductees got 25 votes and then 39 votes were spread among the other eight candidates. As we have already noted, the Early Baseball Era Committee has become the de facto Negro Leagues Committee (seven of the ten candidates being considered by the Committee played behind the Color Line). Of course, Major League Baseball has spent a lot of time recently celebrating the Negro Leagues. In December of 2020, the Major Leagues even recognized seven of the old Negro Leagues as also being ‘Major Leagues.’ But, when it comes to the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Negro League players are once again getting treated like an uninvited party crasher.

[Update 12/31/2021: It has been reported that John Donaldson got eight (8) votes for election. Whether this is actually true is unknown.]

Of course, it could be pointed out that, not only did Buck O’Neil and Bud Fowler get elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 1922, Minnie Minoso also got in. But Buck O’Neil was basically elected for the life he led after the Negro Leagues folded. Bud Fowler died just short of a decade before the first real Negro Major League formed in 1920. And Minnie Minoso was rightfully elected for his career in the traditional Major Leagues. No one was elected primarily for his career in the actual Negro Leagues. Dozens of Negro League players who would have easily had Hall of Fame careers if they had just been able to play out their careers absent discrimination were again left outside looking in. If you use the loosest definition of a Hall of Fame caliber player (we are looking at you Tommy McCarthy), that number is in the hundreds. Despite this, the Early Baseball Era Committee, i.e. the de facto Negro Leagues Committee, will not meet again for ten years. This is something between an outrage and a shame.

Wrapping it all up with a List (or two)

The two Veteran Committee fragments (the Early Baseball Era and the Golden Days Era Committees) got to consider 20 different men to be included into the Baseball Hall of Fame during its 2022 ceremony. Three of these potential Hall of Famers were considered for their contributions to Baseball rather than just their playing careers. One other (Danny Murtaugh) was considered only his career as a field manager. I would have placed these four [4] men in the following order to be elected:

1. John “Buck” O’Neil [Elected 2022]
2. Frank “Lefty” O’Doul
3. John “Bud” Fowler [Elected 2022]
4. Daniel (Danny) Murtaugh

I believed that O’Neil and O’Doul should have been elected. The fact that Bud Fowler was elected certainly does not bother me. Murtaugh was not elected and his family has my sympathies.

Of the 16 men who were being considered only for their playing careers, they would have been ranked in the following order for election:

1. Grant “Home Run” Johnson
2. Richard “Dick” Redding
3. John Donaldson
4. George “Tubby” Scales
5. William “Bill” Dahlen
6. Richard “Dick” Allen
7. Orestes “Minnie” Minoso [Elected 2022]
8. Kenton “Ken” Boyer
9. Walter “Billy” Pierce
10. James “Jim” Kaat [Elected 2022]
11. Pedro “Tony” Oliva [Elected 2022]
12. Gilbert “Gil” Hodges [Elected 2022]
13. Roger Maris
14. Victor “Vic” Harris
15. Maurice “Maury” Wells
16. Allie Reynolds

We are fairly sure that Grant Johnson is the clear Number 1 on this list. The only other option would be John Donaldson. But, even with 20-20 vision on his career, it is unlikely that Donaldson was greater than Johnson. Donaldson is the hardest player to place. He could be anywhere from #1 to #5. If all the data was properly understood, we believe that he would actually be #2. But #3 seems a reasonable compromise. George Scales and Bill Dahlen could be flipped at places #4 or #5. However, the closer you look at Scales, the better he looks and this gives him no credit as a manager. Allen is over Minoso and Boyer because he concentrated his value into fewer seasons. In other words, he would have been more valuable in a pennant race. Pierce remains over Kaat for the same reason and there is certainly an argument that Oliva could be placed over Kaat also. Roger Maris also moves up to #13 because of the pennant race effect and also because the number 13 seems fitting for his bad luck career. Although Allie Reynolds finishes last at #16, this position cannot be considered a disgrace on this list. Reynolds was a great pitcher.

I support the election of #1 through #9 to the Hall of Fame (congratulations to Minoso at #7 who was elected). But I do not support the elections of any players from #10 through #16. Of course, I don’t have a vote. The Baseball Hall of Fame decided that #10 through #12 were worthy. Who am I to argue?

NEXT:

A (hopefully brief) look at the current Lock Out.

The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Election, Part 4.  Golden Age Era Candidates #1 through 10

I am easily satisfied with the very best. Winston Churchill

December 5, 2022

After finishing an analysis of the 10 Early Baseball Era candidates for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame election, I will move on quickly to the 10 candidates that are being considered by the Hall’s Golden Age Era Baseball Committee. Very quickly because it appears that they will announce the new inductees tonight. These ten candidates, listed below in order of their career bWAR [wins above replacement total from Baseball Reference], are:

1. Kenton (Ken) Boyer [1955-1969] 62.8
2. Richard (Dick) Allen [1963-1977] 58.7
3. Orestes (Minnie) Minoso [1949-1964] 53.8 [also 1946-48, 76, 80]
4. Walter (Billy) Pierce [1945-1964] 53.4
5. James (Jim) Kaat [1959-1983] 50.5
6. Gilbert (Gil) Hodges [1943-1963] 43.9
7. Pedro (Tony) Oliva [1962-1976] 43.0
8. Maurice (Maury) Wills [1959-1972] 39.6
9. Roger Maris [1956-1968] 38.3
10. Daniel (Danny) Murtaugh [1941-1951] 6.6 [Manager: 1957-1976]

All 10 of these candidates have already had multiple chances to be elected. But, for whatever reasons, they have not been considered up to the standards required in the past. But, as many other commentators have already noted, the Baseball Hall of Fame standards for election have always been anything but standard. So the first question that must be considered is: “What exactly are the standards of the Hall of Fame?” Answering this question will hopefully provide the answer to the next question: “What should the standards be?” And, to be clear, when I mention the Baseball Hall of Fame standard, it is the absolute lowest common denominator, not the median. In other words, how bad can a player/pitcher be and still be worthy. To answer this question, I am going to assume that the Hall of Fame has always had a baseline standard of only electing the very best. So how shall we measure this?

My Baseball Hall of Fame Selection Formula

I am also going to assume that the Baseball Hall of Fame wants to reward accomplishment, not actual fame. In other words, merely being famous without the statistics to back it up is not enough. In one way, the Hall of Fame is already self-defining. To date (through the 2021 induction), the Hall of Fame has elected 333 people (332 men and 1 woman) to its ranks. Those people who are already elected fall into four different categories: 1) Players (including Pitchers), 2) Executives, 3) Managers, and 4) Umpires. So a basic answer to the question about the Hall of Fame standards would be: “Right before the 2022 induction, the standard is the best 333 baseball executives, managers, players and umpires of all time. But that doesn’t actually help us analyze the Baseball Hall of Fame cases of the 10 Players listed above. To do that properly, we need to eliminate categories two through four (executives, managers, and umpires) to get to the actual number of players and pitchers elected. But this is further complicated by the fact that a few executives and managers (no umpires) are also qualified as players.

Of the 333 people elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, there have been 264 players, 36 executives (also called pioneers in the beginning of the Hall), 23 managers, and 10 umpires. But 264 players is not the correct baseline either. The Hall of Fame has elected 29 players from the Negro Leagues. As we are trying to establish the Hall of Fame baseline for the traditional Major League players, the Negro League players must be (with all due respect) removed from consideration. That leaves 235 players and/or pitchers. In other words, a player (or pitcher) from the traditional Major Leagues should be at least the equal of or better than the 235th ranked player (including pitchers) in the history of the traditional Majors to be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame. If you use the bWAR statistic from Baseball Reference as a source, the 235th best player in Major League history would be a four-way-tie at 55.8 WAR [Wins Above Replacement] between Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio and Joe Gordon with non-Hall of Famers Bob Johnson and Jim Wynn. But this is still not the correct baseline for this evaluation.

In the top 235 players (by Baseball Reference bWAR) are a lot of players that need to be excluded to actually discover the 235th best player eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame. The exclusions fall under the following five categories: 1) Players who have qualified under one of the other categories [including the Negro Leaguers]; 2) Players who are not eligible because they are still active; 3) Players who have retired and will be eligible five years after the end of their career; 4) Players who are ineligible or suspended or disqualified for whatever official or unofficial reason (such as the steroid abusers); and 5) Players who have not yet spent their entire 10 years on the Baseball Writers Association of America [BWAA] ballot. This ballot is the initial gateway into the Hall of Fame. All 235 players in the Baseball Hall of Fame have had to get through this initial gateway. Due to the steroids controversy, quite a few players on the current BBWA ballot will soon be considered to be disqualified for the Baseball Hall of Fameas as they slip into the BBWA version of Baseball purgatory. How long this disqualification will last is an open question.

Of the 235 best players by bWAR, 158 have already been elected to the Hall of Fame. Of course, 235 minus 158 equals 77. Three (3) of these unelected 77 players have been elected in other categories. Five (5) more of these players are ineligible for various reasons. Fourteen (14) players are currently on the BBWA ballot. Five (5) more players have recently retired. Ten (10) players are still active. One player (Rogan) actually would qualify from the Negro Leagues but he has not included in the initial 235. In other words, there are 37 players of the 235 best players by BWAR who are not actually eligible for election. So we need to continue to weed through the list to find the actual 235th eligible player. To make an already long story a little shorter, the eligible 235th player on Baseball reference’s bWAR career list is actually #276, also known as John “Bid” McPhee [#277 is Hall of Famer Waite Hoyt and #278 is Hall of Famer Jim O’Rourke]. The career bWAR statistic for McPhee is 52.5 bWAR [wins above replacement]. Thus, 52.5 bWAR [career wins above replacement] should be the actual lowest common denominator (or threshold or standard) for entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame by this method.

Of the current 235 players eligible and elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, 172 of them meet this minimum standard of 52.5 career bWAR. Of course, this also means that 63 of them do not. Some of them are not even close. Like a drunk at a bar searching desperately for a date, the Hall of Fame has occasionally brought someone home who should have been left outside. Three of these Hall of Fame players (George Kelly, Bruce Sutter, and Tommy McCarthy) are not even listed in the top 1000 players by career bWAR on Baseball Reference [Not uncoincidentally, these three players are also often mentioned as the worst players in the Hall of Fame]. However, since players can only enter into the Baseball Hall of Fame and never be thrown out, this knowledge does little good. An argument could be made that this method (requiring Hall of Famers to meet a 52.5 bWAR standard) is imperfect because it doesn’t match the actual results. But the counter-argument would be that the actual results, not this method, are and have always been deeply flawed. In any event, because you need to at least start with a system, I will use this bWAR lowest common denominator method to evaluate the current crop of candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Do any or all of the 10 current candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame being considered for election by the Golden Age Era Committee meet the minimum requirement of 52.5 wins above replacement [bWAR] for their careers? In the alternative, do any of these players have a persuasive or compelling argument that some force beyond their control, such as war or racism or the stupidity of baseball owners or executives, kept them from getting to this standard?

#1 Kenton (Ken) Boyer [3B], 1955-1969, 62.8 WAR

With 62.8 career WAR, Ken Boyer is actually overqualified for the Hall of Fame. It is odd that Boyer has not already been elected. Baseball sportswriters have often pointed out that third base, Boyer’s main position, is under-represented in the Hall of Fame. Playing a great third base, Ken Boyer won the National League MVP for the 1964 World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. At that point in his career, he seemed like a shoo-in for eventual enshrinement. But that was his last good year. Back problems unraveled the rest of his career and did not allow Boyer to amass the batting statistics that would have ensured an uncontested election to the Hall. I advocate that Ken Boyer be elected.

#2 Richard (Dick) Allen [1B-3B], 1963-1977, 58.7 WAR

Dick Allen has to be the odd’s on favorite to be elected by the Golden Days Era Committee. Almost elected several years ago, Allen passed away recently. Beset by racism during his career, this one last snubbing of Dick Allen by the baseball establishment now seems like just another added injustice. Allen was quite similar to two recent players, Albert Belle and Gary Sheffield. But he was better than either of them. An absolute whale of a hitter, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Dick Allen had played ball in a supportive rather than destructive setting. As it was, Dick Allen seemed to have simply given up on the game at the age of 32. If he had had any type of career into his later 30s, Dick Allen would have been elected long ago. I also advocate that Dick Allen be elected.

#3 Orestes (Minnie) Minoso [LF] 1946-1948 [Negro Leagues], 1949-1964, 1976, 1980, 53.8 WAR

Minnie Minoso is yet another player whom the Hall of Fame simply refused to honor while he was still alive. Using 52.5 bWAR as the gateway/threshold for the Hall of Fame, Minoso ( with his career 53.8 WAR total) clears this minimum with little room to spare. But Minoso is missing the first couple of years of his career (in the tradional Major Leagues) to the racism of that time. He should have been in the Major Leagues by 1947 and become a regular by 1948 at the least. Instead, Minoso played his first full season in 1951. He is missing 10-12 WAR (at least) from the front end of his career. This missing value would put Minnie Minoso well over the 52.5 WAR threshold and at the top of this list. I strongly advocate that Minnie Minoso be elected.

#4 Walter (Billy) Pierce [P] 1945-1964, 53.4

Billy Pierce was a great pitcher and, by all reports, a very nice man. But the tides of Baseball History have washed over him and swept the remains of his career away. He does just make it over the 52.5 WAR threshold for entrance to the Hall of Fame. Although not strongly advocating that Pierce be elected, we certainly do not oppose it. Despite what Leo Durocher said, nice guys do not always have to finish last. I advocate that Billy Pierce be elected.

#5 James (Jim) Kaat [P] 1959-1983, 50.5

Like Billy Pierce, Jim Kaat was also a very good pitcher and a really nice man. His career makes an interesting matched set with the career of Pierce. While Pierce has quality to recommend his career, Kaat has one thing to sell to the Hall of Fame and that is bulk. His pitching career was as endless as his 283-237 won-loss record indicates. Personally, I have always believed that Kaat (and his unindicted co-conspirator Tommy John) belonged in the Hall. But by this present statistical analysis, he just barely misses the 52.5 WAR threshold. I regretfully do not advocate that Jim Kaat be elected.

#6 Gilbert (Gil) Hodges [1B] 1943-1963, 43.9

Gil Hodges was a very good first baseman and, by all reports, (does anyone see a theme here) a very nice man. In 1966, the baseball book “The Glory of Their Times” was published. As a direct consequence of that book, several players with very underwhelming qualifications were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. We believe that Hodges is the tip of the spear for the baseball book “The Boys of Summer” (published 1972). We need to stop this band wagon here before Preacher Roe, Carl Erskine, Carl Furillo, and Billy Cox all march together into the Hall. In all seriousness, Gil Hodges, member of the Boys of Summer and also manager of the famed 1969 Miracle Mets, is a good represention of the flip side of the accomplishment theory to the Hall of Fame. This flip side is Fame. If your threshold for the Hall is based on Fame, Hodges belongs all day long. But, using the 52.5 WAR threshold, Hodges does not belong at all. I do not advocate that Gil Hodges be elected.

#7 Pedro (Tony) Oliva [RF] 1962-1976, 43.0

Pedro (Tony) Oliva has the same story to sell to the Hall of Fame as so many other unfortunate players and pitchers. A Hall of Fame career derailed before it was ever completed. His career also has a somewhat odd shape. Oliva was at his greatest before and after the late 1960s dead ball era which co-incided with his peak years. He was still one hell of a hitter in the middle of his career, but he was better both earlier and then later before the knee injury wrecked his glide path to immortality. Most career paths are peaks. Oliva’s was like a plateau with a dip in the middle. Dick Allen has a similar trough through the dead ball years. One just has to wonder if modern medicine could have saved Tony Oliva’s knee. Like so many people, Oliva was probably just born at the wrong time. I regretfully do not advocate that Tony Oliva be elected.

#8 Maurice (Maury) Wills [SS] 1959-1972, 39.6

Maury Wills can be considered the antidote to Pierce, Kaat, and Hodges (and even Oliva). He was not a very nice man. But he was certainly an interesting one. Like Gil Hodges, Maury Wills has fame in abundance to punch his ticket to Cooperstown. As the initial breaker of Ty Cobb’s single season stolen base record, one of the great stars of the 1960s Dodgers, and the strange love thief of Doris Day’s heart, Maury has enough fame for two players. Unfortunately, his actual total accomplishments on the Baseball field does not really add up to a Hall of Fame career. I do not advocate that Maury Wills be elected.

#9 Roger Maris [RF] 1957-1968, 38.3

Roger Maris, the initial breaker of Babe Ruth’s single season home run record, has probably more fame to sell than Hodges and Wills put together. But he also has the same type of injury story as Tony Oliva, only perhaps sadder. An injury in 1963 derailed yet another great season. Then, in July of 1965, Maris fractured his hand sliding into second base. He proceeded to play the entire 1966 season with a still broken hand. There is evidence that that the Yankees did not bother to inform Maris of his injury because they wanted his presence in the line-up to sell tickets. With his hand ruined, Maris’ career slipped away from 1965 to 1968. One has to wonder how his career would have played out today. Maris, who famously did not like the bright lights of New York, would have been able to eventually pick where he played through free agency. The current medical treatments for player injuries makes the 1960s seem like the dark ages. His hand would have probably been salvaged. But instead, Maris is what he was. Like Tony Oliva, an obvious Hall of Fame career derailed by injury (and probably stress). I regretfully do not advocate that Roger Maris be elected.

#10 Danny Murtaugh [MGR] player 1941-1951, manager 1957-1976, 6.6

As I have not studied the Hall of Fame qualifications for Major League field managers at any length, my opinion about Danny Murtaugh’s Hall of Fame chances will hardly be meaningful. He did manage the Pittsburgh Pirates to five pennants. His Pirates won both World Series that they appeared in [1960 and 1971]. Murtaugh seems to be receiving a lot of credit for fielding the first completely non-white baseball line-up in traditional Major League history. He died early in 1976, ending his successful managerial career pre-maturely. But my impression of him, when he was alive, was that Murtaugh was a nice guy who managed like someone trying to drive an automobile from the back seat. Whether this impression is fair or unfair, I do not really know. In any case, I do not advocate his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

But, to be quite clear, I don’t really give a hot damn about the election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in the categories of commissioners, owners, executives, managers, coaches or batboys. So I may be missing something here.

NEXT:

Examining the actual inductees of the Early Baseball Era and Golden Days Era Baseball Committees.

The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Election, Part 3. Early Baseball Era Candidates #6 through 10

The only guarantee for failure is to stop trying. John C. Maxwell

December 1, 2021

In this post, I continue my analysis of the 10 men eligible to be elected by the Hall of Fame’s Early Baseball Era Committe for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2022 by profiling the second five players [#6-10].

6) Victor “Vic” Harris [LF], b. 1905 [1922-1947], OPS+ 114 [SH]

Vic Harris is an interesting choice by the Committee that chose the potential candidates active before 1950 for the Early Baseball Committee. A very good outfielder in the Negro Leagues, Vic Harris forged a long career in the Negro Leagues as a player. If he had not been a victim of discrimination, Vic Harris would have probably been in the Major Leagues by 1926 and a regular shortly thereafter. Harris, a temperamental but extremely competitive man, would have almost certainly been a favorite of his Major League managers. Harris would have probably lasted as a regular until 1939 or 1940. At that point, his fading skills would have made him replaceable by younger and better players. Like many Major League players of that time, Vic Harris may have added on to his career by playing during the World War 2 years from 1942-1945 while the Major Leagues were decimated by the draft.

[Note on analyzing the Seamheads’ Negro League statistics: it is my belief that the quality of the Major Negro Leagues fluctuated between the quality of the highest classification of the Minor Leagues and the Major Leagues itself. The quality of the Negro Leagues was roughly equal to the highest Minor League classification when the Leagues began in the 1920s and then rose steadily. In the early 1930s, it is quite possible that the Negro Leagues were equal or close to equal to the caliber of the Major Leagues. In 1937, because of the founding of the Negro American League and sustained player raids by Latin American teams, the quality once again went down to highest Minor League classification standards. With this in mind, Negro League statistics need to sometimes be reduced by up to 90 percent, sometimes 95 percent, and sometimes not at all. To use the career of Vic Harris as an example: Harris becomes viable as a major league player 1923 when his Negro League OPS+ went past 100. His years playing in the 1930s are against better competition than in the 1920s and must be adjusted upwards. In the late 1930s, his OPS+ slips back below 100 and his career as a Major League regular would have come to an end. Player shortages during World War 2 could have possibly prolonged his career.]

But a careful analysis of career indicates that, if he had played in the Majors, it is very unlikely that Vic Harris would have been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame simply as a player. Harris was a good hitter but not an outstanding one. He does not elevate his status by being a defensive wizard either. Vic Harris spent his career basically as a left fielder, the least important defensively of the three outfield positions. Not only are there many White outfielders of this era with better qualifications, Vic Harris does not measure up to some of his Black contemporaries such as Fats Jenkins, Clint Thomas, Neil Robinson or Herbert “Rap” Dixon as an potential Hall of Famer as an outfielder. All four of these Negro League outfielders are far more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Harris simply for their playing careers. But, like George Scales below, Vic Harris is a combination candidate. Harris had a long and successful career as a field manager.

Vic Harris managed the Homestead Grays from 1936 to 1942 and then again from 1945 to 1948. The Grays dominated the Negro National League [NNL] from 1937 to 1945, finishing first or winning the pennant every year while also winning the Negro World Series multiple times. The Grays then capped off this incredible run by winning both the 1948 pennant and the Negro World Series one final time during the last season of the NNL. It does seem like the field manager of such a formidable Baseball dynasty deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. And this, rather than his playing career (or perhaps in combination with his playing career), is the true basis for Harris’ candidacy for admittance to the Baseball Hall of Fame. So the actual question of Vic Harris’ Hall of Fame candidacy should perhaps be: “Is the combination of both his playing career and his managerial career enough to justify his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame?”

One could argue that the true “manager” and architect of the Homestead Grays dynasty that lasted from 1937 to 1945 teams was Cumberland “Cum” Posey, the team owner. Posey, of course, has already been inducted to the Baseball Hall of Fame for this role. Posey had actually been the team’s field manager in 1935 but turned the title over to Harris. And this becomes the crux of the issue. Due to the free flowing nature of the Negro Leagues, field managers in these Leagues did not exactly have the same job responsibilities as their Major League counterparts. What exactly were Harris’ duties as a field manager? How much credit should he get for how great the team was at that time? Or did Harris simply do the menial stuff that Cum Posey did not want to waste his time doing? Interestingly, Harris took a war time job for the 1943 and 1944 seasons and the Grays did not miss a beat. One thing that cannot be disputed is that Cum Posey was definitely the man in charge. Was Vic Harris a great field manager or just Posey’s factotum? It is hard to tell.

After Cum Posey’s 1946 death, Vic Harris did lead the Homestead Grays to one last pennant in 1948. And under his leadership, the Grays won the last Negro World Series in the final season of the NNL. However, one could easily argue that the credit for this last victorious season actually goes to Seward Posey and Rufus Jackson, the two men who ran the Homestead Grays after Cum Posey passed away. In the last year of a dying league, they spent the money for one last shot at glory. But Harris was still there and that should certainly count for something. You cannot simply take away all of the credit. And it is a truism that a bad manager can do much more to wreck a situation than a good manager can do to improve it. But until a better understanding of exactly how much credit is apportioned to Vic Harris for his managerial talents, I cannot advocate his election to the Hall of Fame.

7) George “Tubby” Scales [2B-3B], b. 1900 [1921-1946], OPS+ 141 [SH]

The last of the seven Negro League players on this list. George Scales is yet another combination candidate like Vic Harris. George Scales played in the Negro Leagues for well over 20 years; and was also, later in his career, a very well regarded manager. But, unlike Harris, George Scales does not need the extra credit of being a good (or great) manager to make his Hall of Fame case complete. In the field, he played every position but catcher during his career. However, Scales’ appearances in the outfield and especially as a pitcher were minimal. He was was basically an infielder. He played mostly 2B and 3B but also some SS and 1B. His career path around the infield was somewhat odd. Beginning at 3B [1921-23], Scales then played 2B [1924] before shifting over to primarily SS [1926-28]. He returned to 2B [1929-32] before returning to 3B [1933-41]. From 1942 on, he played primarily 1B. Scales’ fielding statistics are actually better at 2B and SS rather than 3B. This would seem to indicate that his strength in the field was range rather than his arm. But it was with his bat that George Scales would truly make his mark.

If he had been allowed to play in the Major Leagues, George Scales would have had an extremely long career. He would have probably made his first appearance in the Majors in 1923. George Scales would have quickly become a regular and stayed a regular until 1940. He would have probably also had an extended World War 2 coda to his career with his last significant playing time in 1943 and perhaps even limited appearances in 1944 and 1945. His career plateau OPS+ in the Major Leagues would have probably been from 140 to 150. Depending on his home park, he would have averaged .350-.375 with 20-25 home runs during his absolute peak seasons. Because he would have played for 20 years in the Majors, there is a good chance that his career hits total would have approached or exceeded 3000. The sheer length of George Scales’ career would have provided him with the counting stats that would have made his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame inevitable.

It is interesting to compare Scales to his Major League contemporaries at 2B [Rogers Hornsby, Frankie Frisch, and Tony Lazzeri] and 3B [Pie Traynor, Fred Lindstrom, and Jimmy Dykes]. Scales does not really compare to Hornsby at all [the comp for Hornsby would be John Beckwith]. His career path was very similar to that of Frankie Frisch or Jimmy Dykes. But he was obviously a much greater player than Dykes. During their peak years, Tony Lazzeri and Freddie Lindstrom were comparable to Scales as hitters. But Scales’ career and peak were much longer than theirs. George Scales was a much greater hitter than Pie Traynor, though probably not his match as a third baseman. In value, the best comparison for George Scales is surely Frankie Frisch. Frisch was almost surely faster and a better fielder, but Scales was a greater and more powerful hitter. It seems clear that, after Rogers Hornsby, the contest for the best 2B of that time period would be between Frankie Frisch or George Scales.

Of course, this says nothing about his managerial career. George Scales was a well regarded field manager for mostly the New York Black Yankees and the Baltimore Elite Giants at various times from 1932 to 1947. He also managed in the Puerto Rican Winter League for 12 seasons, finishing first a reported 6 times. After the 1958 winter season, George Scales retired from baseball and became a stockbroker until he passed away in 1976. Interestingly, one other player that George Scales somewhat resembles is Jackie Robinson. Robinson also played all over the field and was a smart and mobile player. Later on in his playing career, Robinson also had trouble keeping the weight off although he fortunately never picked up a disparaging nickname like ‘Tubby’ as Scales did. If George Scales had been allowed to play in the Major Leagues without discrimination, he would have long since been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. For that very reason, I advocate his election to the Hall of Fame now.

8) Allie Reynolds [P], b. 1917 [1942-1954], ERA+ 109, WAR 25.7 [BR]

Allie Reynolds is somewhat of an oddity on this list. Unlike the first seven Negro League candidates, Reynolds played in the Major Leagues. His career straddles the 1950 cut-off for the Early Baseball Era Committee (Reynolds actually had his best seasons in the 1950s). Allie Reynolds, unlike the Negro Leagues candidates, has had an enormously long time to be considered by various electorates for induction into the Hall of Fame. Despite this, Reynolds has never been seriously considered. Probably his best qualification for the Hall of Fame is his impeccable won-lost record of 182 wins against only 107 losses. Normally, this would be the sign of a great pitcher. But, in this case, the record also reflects the quality of the two teams that Reynolds played for: the Cleveland Indians and the New York Yankees. Both of these teams were well run and very successful while employing Reynolds to pitch.

Other than his winning percentage, Allie Reynolds does not have any of the other earmarks of a Baseball Hall of Fame pitcher. Strangely, Reynolds does not even have the argument that many of his contemporaries do (that their careers were impacted negatively by the Second World War). The war actually allowed Reynolds to reach the Major Leagues and begin his career earlier than his talent dictated. Reynolds, outside of his one great season in 1952, was usually a barely-above-average innings-eater with command issues. Of course, there is great value to a team from a pitcher who can give it bulk innings of above average production. But it does not end up fashioning a Baseball Hall of Fame career. Allie Reynolds’ 25.7 wins above replacement from Baseball Reference does not even place him among the 1000 greatest players of all time. For this reason, I cannot advocate his election to the Hall of Fame.

9) William “Bill” Dahlen [SS], b. 1870 [1891-1911, OPS+ 110, WAR 75.2 [BR]

William “Bad Bill” Dahlen has basically two good arguments supporting his possible election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The first argument is simply Dahlen’s contemporary George Davis. In 1998, Davis, who had played from 1890 to 1909 was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Davis, who had been basically forgotten by the tides of baseball history, owed his late induction to modern baseball analysis. This analysis had concluded that George Davis was the greatest player in the history of the Major Leagues who was not already in the Hall. In fact, this analysis showed that he was significantly better qualified than the average Major League Hall of Famer. Thus began a campaign to get him elected. And Davis got in. His election then kickstarted the case for Bill Dahlen to also get elected. Davis and Dahlen are directly comparable. Both played great shortstop and were very good hitters for a very long time. Both had been equally forgotten. Although it is pretty clear that Davis was better than Dahlen, his advantage is slight. Dahlen, like Davis, is also pretty clearly significantly over-qualified statistically. In other words, the first argument to put Dahlen into the Hall is simply: “If Davis is in, why not Dahlen too?”

The second good argument for Bill Dahlen being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame is closely related to the first argument. Once George Davis was elected, Bill Dahlen became, by modern baseball analysis, the best player still on the board, waiting to get into the Hall. But there is a caveat. Dahlen is the best ‘player’ unelected but there is actually a pitcher even more qualified. By Baseball Reference’s WAR stat [wins above replacement], Jim McCormick, who pitched from 1878 to 1887 [won-loss record of 265-214], is tied for the 73rd greatest career in Major League history [WAR of 76.2]. All 72 players above him (and Bobby Wallace who he is tied with) are already in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Bill Dahlen is second on this list of unelected players, all alone as the 79th best player of all time with 75.2 WAR [George Davis, for reference, is #53 with 84.5 WAR]. Considering that the Baseball Hall of Fame currently has 333 members with 235 elected from the Major Leagues, Jim McCormick and Bill Dahlen would both seem to be over-qualified. Of course, this is a completely dry statistical analysis. But it is the core of Dahlen’s second good argument for election and induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

One of the oddest things about the possible election of Bill Dahlen to the Hall of Fame is that he is not actually famous. For all intents and purposes, Dahlen has been pretty much forgotten by all but the baseball statistics aficionados. Interestingly, one of the arguments often used to try to promote the election of some players is that they are famous (Roger Maris and Maury Wills are two examples currently on the 2022 Ballot). Especially if their statistics fall a little short. Should not this argument be applicable in reverse? Dahlen’s statistics do not fall short. He is fully qualified. But Bill Dahlen is basically forgotten and not famous at all. This seems an injustice. An injustice that could be partially righted by simply inducting Dahlen into the Baseball Hall of Fame. For this somewhat convoluted reason, I advocate his election to the Hall of Fame.

10) Frank “Lefty” O’Doul [LF-P], b. 1897 [1919-1934], 143 OPS+, WAR 27.1 [BR]

The last man on this list has quite a bit in common with the first man on this list [#1 Buck O’Neil]. Other than just the initial ‘O’ in their last name, both men were a type of Baseball Renaissance Man. Frank “Lefty” O’Doul is a candidate for the Baseball Hall of Fame as a player, manager, executive, and promoter. As a player, Lefty O’Doul was a fantastic hitter but not much of a fielder. As a hitter, he was very clearly Hall of Fame caliber but his career path took some detours that blocked his road to immortality. As a manager and executive, he won over 2000 games primarily for the San Francisco club of the Pacific Coast League; but, at that time, the city of San Francisco was not yet a Major League town. As a promoter, O’Doul was involved in the formation of the Japanese Baseball Leagues and then their rejuvenation after the Second World War. He was inducted into the Japanese Hall of Fame for his efforts. It can certainly be argued that Lefty O’Doul is not qualified for the Baseball Hall of Fame under any one of these categories. But O’Doul’s combination of qualifications for the Baseball Hall of Fame is actually pretty compelling.

To say that Lefty O’Doul had a somewhat odd career would be understating it. In 1917, O’Doul began his career as a pitcher for the San Francisco Seals (his hometown team). From 1917 to 1923, his primary position would be pitcher. For the season of 1919, he was drafted by the New York Yankees. Oddly, the Yankees kept O’Doul on their pitching staff for the next two years [1919 and 1920] principally as a batting practice pitcher. In 1921, the Yanks returned the now 24 year old O’Doul to San Francisco. Lefty proceeded to go 25-9 as a pitcher while also batting .338 and slugging .529 [in just 136 at bats] for the Seals. Strangely, this did not kickstart his career. In 1922, Lefty O’Doul went back to the New York Yankees to pitch some more batting practice. In 1923, the sore-armed O’Doul finished his pitching career with the Boston Red Sox. At a career crossroads, O’Doul converted to the outfield and returned to the Pacific Coast League with the Salt Lake City team for 1924. At the age of 27, O’Doul clouted .392 for the Utah team. From 1924 to 1927, O’Doul would pound Pacific Coast League pitching. In retrospect, it seems obvious that he should have converted from pitcher to slugger quite a bit earlier.

In 1927, Lefty O’Doul won the inaugaral Most Valuable Player [MVP] award of the Pacific Coast League. He slugged 33 home runs while batting .378 for the 1927 season. In 1928, now 31 years old, O’Doul rejoined the Major League as a hitter. Despite injuries, he hit .319 his first year. Then in 1928, he slugged 32 home runs and won the National League batting championship with a .398 average. He won a second batting championship in 1932 with a .368 average. A slow start in 1933 cost O’Doul his position as a starter but he could still hit. Playing part-time in 1934, Lefty averaged .316 and slugged a robust .525 for the year. In 1935, Lefty O’Doul returned to the Pacific Coast League [PCL] as a manager and part-time player. O’Doul would manage in the PCL until 1957. In his aborted seven year career [1928-1934] as a Major league slugger, Lefty O’Doul pretty much demonstrated that, if he had just started a little earlier, he would already be in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Considering the bizarre glut of non-qualified 1920s and 1930s players thrown into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee during the 1960s and 1970s, his election as part of this crew would have been inevitable.

Does the fact that Lefty O’Doul was a Baseball Hall of Fame caliber hitter who just did not play long enough in the Major Leagues due to factors out of his control matter? Does the fact that, with just a little better luck, Lefty O’Doul would already be in the Hall of Fame carry any weight? Does the fact that he could be given some extra credit for promoting, or at least encouraging, the cross cultural connections between the White and Japanese Major Leagues count? Does his long and very successful career as a minor league manager, mostly in a future Major League city, add to his Hall of Fame case? It seems to me that this total package of accomplishments is worthy of election. For that reason, I do advocate the election of Lefty O’Doul to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

However, my advocacy for the election of Frank “Lefty” O’Doul to the Baseball Hall of Fame comes with the caveat that it should probably come (just like the election of John “Buck” O’Neil) under some other category than player, pioneer, executive, manager or umpire.

NEXT:

A quick round-up of the players on the Golden Age Era ballot before the election announcement tomorrow.