Post #7

The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Election, Part 5.  Results from the Early Baseball & Golden Age Era Committees

One knows so little. When one knows more, it is too late. Agatha Christie

December 7, 2022

The two Baseball Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee’s Sub-Committees that were voting on possible 2022 inductees released their results on December 5, 2021. The new inductees were as expected [Minnie Minoso and John “Buck” O’Neil], somewhat unexpected [Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, and Tony Oliva], and out of left field [Bud Fowler]. Buck O’Neil was elected as an Executive/Pioneer. All five of the other candidates were apparently simply elected as players.* Most importantly, two of the six men elected are still alive [Kaat and Oliva]. As both men played primarily for the Minnesota Twins, their induction day at 1:30 p.m. on July 24, 2022 will obviously be a very good day for the Twins franchise and its fans. In this post, I will examine all six of these elections as best I can.

*[Update 12/31/2021: Bud Fowler was apparently elected as a Executive (slash Pioneer) rather than as a Player also.]

Jim Kaat & Tony Oliva

In retrospect, there is one interesting aspect of this election that I certainly should have considered more thoroughly, but did not. Entrance to the Hall of Fame has two doors. The front door is completely controlled by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America [BBWA]. The back door is controlled by the Baseball Hall of Fame itself. By allowing the BBWA to control the front door, the Baseball Hall of Fame has always created a serious problem for itself. At various times, the BBWA has not elected any players at all. For instance, they did not elect anyone in 2013. They also did not elect anyone in 2021. The baseball writers’ guild then invariably congratulates themselves on preserving the purity of the Hall or maintaining the high standards of the Hall or simply pulls some explanation out of thin air that justifies their inaction. It is all the same to them. No matter what happens, the baseball writers get a story to pontificate about.

However, if the BBWA does not let anyone in the front door, the Baseball Hall of Fame can be left with their hat in their hand. For the most part, the players elected by the BBWA are still among the living. Conversely, the players being invited by the Hall of Fame to join the party through the back door are quite often dead. The last thing that the Baseball Hall of Fame wants is to not have a living inductee at their Hall of Fame ceremony. A party is usually more fun than a wake. Of the 20 players being considered by the the Early Baseball Era and Golden Days Era Committees, only three of the candidates were alive: Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, and Maury Wills. In retrospect, the election and induction of one or two (or even all 3) of these living candidates was probably inevitable. Especially since there is a very good chance that the BBWA will keep the front door locked shut once again in 2022.

Some members of the baseball writers’ fraternity have what they feel to be perfectly good reasons to slam the door right in the face of almost every main candidate returning for another shot at being elected by them in 2022. These candidates include Curt Schilling, who wore a shirt advocating that journalists should be killed; Barry Bonds, who took enough steroids to turn himself into Babe Ruth; and Roger Clemens, who also almost surely took steroids and has some other disturbing scandals attached. These three players finished 1-2-3 on the 2021 ballot. And all three are actually completely overqualified for the Hall of Fame. In addition to them, the 2022 ballot is also littered with a whole bunch of other returning steroid or possible steroid abusers: Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa. Each of these players would also already be elected if they had just been clean. And the cherry on the top would have to be Omar Vizquel. He also returns for another opportunity to be elected, but his Hall of Fame chances have probably been destroyed by recent revelations of both domestic abuse and sexual harrassment accusations.

Joining all these damned candidates this year are: 1) David Ortiz, who may or may not have flunked a supposedly totally confidential steroid test way back at the beginning of his career but then never ever flunked another one, and 2) Alex Rodriguez, who apparently took so many steroids that he had dreams of being a centaur. By accomplishment, the best clean and untainted candidate in 2022 would probably be Scott Rolen. At the very least, five of these dirty candidates have better credentials than Rolen. But it could easily be argued that there are eight who had better careers. But all 5 to 8 of these candidates are unlikely to be elected. And the mere presence of all these over-qualified but tainted candidates on the ballot will crowd many other possible untainted candidates right off the ten player maximum ballot.

In 1994, the baseball analyst and historian Bill James wrote a book about the Hall of Fame entitled: “The Politics of Glory.” That is a fabulous title. Despite being a great title, it was changed when the book was later reissued. It was probably deemed not specific enough (Whose politics? What glory?) for the casual reader. However, the 2022 election of Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva to the Baseball Hall of Fame surely shows those politics of glory in action. One has to wonder if either would have been elected if the Hall did not desperately need to ensure that there was a living player at the podium. On the other hand, both Kaat and Oliva are currently over 80 years old. They would not have been eligible to be elected for another five years. Better to honor them now then after they have passed away. I sincerely congratulate Jim Katt and Tony Oliva.

One final thought: it will be very interesting if David Ortiz is also elected this year. Kaat and Oliva are Minnesota Twins idols through and through. Ortiz started his career with the Twins too. But Ortiz, who goes down in history as a Boston Red Sox player, has been quite outspoken about his, shall we say, low opinion of the Twins organization. If all three are on the podium at the same time, the baseball world can be sure that irony is not dead.

Gil Hodges & Minnie Minoso

I also congratulate both Minnie Minoso and Gil Hodges on their election. Of course, it would have been far better for the overqualified Minnie Minoso to have been honored during his lifetime. And Gil Hodges, also deceased, is finally allowed to join his teammates (Jackie, Pee Wee, and the Duke) in the shrine. In the discussion about their election, one very interesting fact was mentioned. Minoso and Hodges (and Kaat and Oliva) were all elected by the Golden Days Era Committee. This Committee consisted of 16 members and 12 votes were needed for election. The ballot consisted of 10 players. What I did not know was that each member could only vote for 4 players. This, of course, means that the maximum number of votes was 64 (if each voter cast all four ballots with no blanks); and it also means that an absolute maximum of five players could be elected (5×12=60 ballots). It was stated that Minoso got 14 votes while Hodges, Kaat and Oliva all got 12 each. This, of course is 50 votes. But then it was also reported that Dick Allen got 11 votes and that Maury Wills got the other three. This would account for all 64 votes with just 5 players accounting for 61 of those votes.

This is actually quite interesting. It seems like the Golden Days Era Committee focused on exactly five candidates (the max they could elect). The other five candidates (Ken Boyer, Roger Maris, Danny Murtaugh, Billy Pierce, and Maury Wills) were then for the most part discarded. The Committee certainly did not seem to rely much on modern baseball analysis. Ken Boyer, who has the most wins above replacement [WAR being the most commonly used stat currently to sum up career value] of any of the players, does not seem to have gotten a single vote. Like politicians rigging an election, the members of the Golden Days Era Committee must have horse traded until almost all of their favorite candidates got elected. The one exception was Dick Allen who fell just one vote short. Was the Committee afraid that it would look odd if they ran the table and elected the max of 5 players? In any event, the family and friends of Dick Allen can probaly begin preparing for his almost inevitable election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2026 (induction in 2027) when the Golden Days Era Committee gets its next chance to kick in the back door.

Buck O’Neil & Bud Fowler

Unlike the Golden Days Era Committee, the 16 members of the Early Baseball Era Committee could not get their act together and try to ensure that as many of their candidates as humanly possible got into the Hall of Fame. Reportedly, Buck O’Neil got 13 votes and Bud Fowler got 12. This means that two of the inductees got 25 votes and then 39 votes were spread among the other eight candidates. As we have already noted, the Early Baseball Era Committee has become the de facto Negro Leagues Committee (seven of the ten candidates being considered by the Committee played behind the Color Line). Of course, Major League Baseball has spent a lot of time recently celebrating the Negro Leagues. In December of 2020, the Major Leagues even recognized seven of the old Negro Leagues as also being ‘Major Leagues.’ But, when it comes to the Baseball Hall of Fame, the Negro League players are once again getting treated like an uninvited party crasher.

[Update 12/31/2021: It has been reported that John Donaldson got eight (8) votes for election. Whether this is actually true is unknown.]

Of course, it could be pointed out that, not only did Buck O’Neil and Bud Fowler get elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 1922, Minnie Minoso also got in. But Buck O’Neil was basically elected for the life he led after the Negro Leagues folded. Bud Fowler died just short of a decade before the first real Negro Major League formed in 1920. And Minnie Minoso was rightfully elected for his career in the traditional Major Leagues. No one was elected primarily for his career in the actual Negro Leagues. Dozens of Negro League players who would have easily had Hall of Fame careers if they had just been able to play out their careers absent discrimination were again left outside looking in. If you use the loosest definition of a Hall of Fame caliber player (we are looking at you Tommy McCarthy), that number is in the hundreds. Despite this, the Early Baseball Era Committee, i.e. the de facto Negro Leagues Committee, will not meet again for ten years. This is something between an outrage and a shame.

Wrapping it all up with a List (or two)

The two Veteran Committee fragments (the Early Baseball Era and the Golden Days Era Committees) got to consider 20 different men to be included into the Baseball Hall of Fame during its 2022 ceremony. Three of these potential Hall of Famers were considered for their contributions to Baseball rather than just their playing careers. One other (Danny Murtaugh) was considered only his career as a field manager. I would have placed these four [4] men in the following order to be elected:

  1. John “Buck” O’Neil [Elected 2022]
  2. Frank “Lefty” O’Doul
  3. John “Bud” Fowler [Elected 2022]
  4. Daniel (Danny) Murtaugh

I believed that O’Neil and O’Doul should have been elected. The fact that Bud Fowler was elected certainly does not bother me. Murtaugh was not elected and his family has my sympathies.

Of the 16 men who were being considered only for their playing careers, they would have been ranked in the following order for election:

  1. Grant “Home Run” Johnson
  2. Richard “Dick” Redding
  3. John Donaldson
  4. George “Tubby” Scales
  5. William “Bill” Dahlen
  6. Richard “Dick” Allen
  7. Orestes “Minnie” Minoso [Elected 2022]
  8. Kenton “Ken” Boyer
  9. Walter “Billy” Pierce
  10. James “Jim” Kaat [Elected 2022]
  11. Pedro “Tony” Oliva [Elected 2022]
  12. Gilbert “Gil” Hodges [Elected 2022]
  13. Roger Maris
  14. Victor “Vic” Harris
  15. Maurice “Maury” Wells
  16. Allie Reynolds

We are fairly sure that Grant Johnson is the clear Number 1 on this list. The only other option would be John Donaldson. But, even with 20-20 vision on his career, it is unlikely that Donaldson was greater than Johnson. Donaldson is the hardest player to place. He could be anywhere from #1 to #5. If all the data was properly understood, we believe that he would actually be #2. But #3 seems a reasonable compromise. George Scales and Bill Dahlen could be flipped at places #4 or #5. However, the closer you look at Scales, the better he looks and this gives him no credit as a manager. Allen is over Minoso and Boyer because he concentrated his value into fewer seasons. In other words, he would have been more valuable in a pennant race. Pierce remains over Kaat for the same reason and there is certainly an argument that Oliva could be placed over Kaat also. Roger Maris also moves up to #13 because of the pennant race effect and also because the number 13 seems fitting for his bad luck career. Although Allie Reynolds finishes last at #16, this position cannot be considered a disgrace on this list. Reynolds was a great pitcher.

I support the election of #1 through #9 to the Hall of Fame (congratulations to Minoso at #7 who was elected). But I do not support the elections of any players from #10 through #16. Of course, I don’t have a vote. The Baseball Hall of Fame decided that #10 through #12 were worthy. Who am I to argue?

NEXT:

A (hopefully brief) look at the current Lock Out.