2024 Seasonal Wrap-up
November 30, 2024
History repeats itself, but in such cunning disguise that we never detect the resemblance until the damage is done. Sydney J. Harris
Introduction: The 2024 Season in a Nutshell
In the beginning of the Baseball season, teams have to lift off. Of course, with some clubs, there is a complete failure to launch (Houston in 2024). This Lift off phase usually lasts for the first third of the season [games one through 54]. Once the season is really under way, teams reach the proving grounds of the middle of the year. Adjustments are made. The players who started quickly usually fade. The players who struggled sometimes get hot. This Dog Days phase usually lasts through the second third of the season [games 55-108]. After sprinting or slogging through the Dog Days, the very best teams race to the finish. This Stretch Run phase lasts until the season ends [games 109-162]. In one way, the year 2024 was quite unusual. During most seasons, teams surge or collapse. Occasionally, some teams, that are not even expected to contend, pick themselves off the floor and win (1914 Miracle Braves, 1951 New York Giants, and 1967 Impossible Dream Red Sox). In 2024, there was not much movement in the team standings. The Chicago White Sox immediately crumbled so completely that they set the modern record for games lost [121]. However, no one sane went into 2024 expecting the White Sox to be any good. As mentioined, the periennally good Astros failed to ignite. But they got it togther and went on a rocket ride back to the top. The final obituary for their current mini-dynasty will have to wait. There were some surprises around the edges (the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals unexpectedly made the playoffs). But, for the most part, teams just remained steadily on pace during 2024.
The Waxing and Waning of the 2024 Season
Five clubs blasted out of the gate in 2024 looking like they would end the 2024 season as superteams, winning 100 or more games. However, none of these five teams – Baltimore, Cleveland, Los Angeles (NL), New York (AL), & Philadelphia – could maintain their pace. Instead, for the first time in many years,* no Major League club finished the season with 100 or more wins. But all five of these teams still went to the play-offs. On the flip side, six teams began the season with absolutely no chance at all – Colorado, Los Angeles (AL), Miami, Oakland, Washington, and Chicago (AL). All six of these teams ended up in the basement. This left nineteen other teams playing musical chairs for the other seven play-off spots. At the July 30th trade deadline, so many teams were still in the hunt for a playoff spot that it was a seller’s market. At the finish line, there were some mild surprises. After losing 106 games in 2023, the KC Royals had loaded up and made the 2024 play-offs. Detroit jelled, Seattle and Minnesota faded, and the 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers were wrecked by injuries. The Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and San Francisco Giants saw their dreams of a good luck season dashed. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who muddled through the 2023 season but made it to the World Series anyways, muddled through the 2024 season but did not make the play-offs. The Atlanta Braves were so good that they made the play-offs despite having a season equivalent to an airplane crash. In the end, the best teams got into the play-offs; and the two best teams faced off in the World Series.
*Except for the Covid-stunted season of 2020, the only 21st Century seasons without a 100 (or +) winning team were: 2000, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2013, & 2014. Recently, the number of 100 (or +) winning teams reached a historical high. In 2019 & 2022, four teams won 100 or more. In 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2023, three teams reached at least 100 wins. Even in 2020, three teams were on a pace that would have resulted in 100 win seasons. In respect to recent years, 2024 has been the anomaly. It will be interessting to see if five teams can do it one year. It is the Age of the Superteam.
The 2024 Major League Baseball Play-Offs
After the 2023 Major League Baseball season ended, Baseball columnists, sportswriters, and internet talking heads (loudmouths) lamented that the current Baseball play-off system kept the very best teams from winning the World Series. The 2023 Series featured two teams that basically muddled through the season and then got hot at the right time. Changing things up, the two best teams (measured by seasonal wins) in each League made it all the way to the World Series in 2024. Not only that, the two teams were the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the most famous and also most successful MLB franchises. On top of all that, the NY Yankees employ Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani works for the LA Dodgers. Judge and Ohtani are, far and away, the most recognizable and marketable superstars in the current game. Not to even mention that Los Angeles and New York are the largest media markets in the country. It was almost enough to make one believe that karma or destiny was giving the finger to all those complaints about the 2023 Series. Of course, fate is known to throw curveballs. Judge slumped during the Series. He seemed to be breaking out in the fifth game but that was the final game of the Series. That game ended in a Yankee loss after an error by Judge himself opened the floodgates. Ohtani looked ready to dominate the World Series but injured his shoulder badly in Game Two. And the World Series did not go the full seven games, denying the drama of one last game for all the marbles. It was still a fantastic World Series and awesome year for Baseball. You can’t have everything.
Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge Redux
Baseball is easily the most mathematical of all sports. It lends itself to measurement. Of course, most of this analysis goes into comparing one player to another, sometimes one team to another, and occasionally one League to another. But the long 162-game Baseball season has it’s own numerical pleasures. It divides evenly into 27, 54, and 81 game segments (and comes close at 16, 32 and 40 game pieces). In 1979, Dave Kingman of the Chicago Cubs had 29 Home runs when Chicago played it’s 81st game of the year (he had played 78 of those 81 games). Kong was on pace to hit 58 homers, maybe even challenge Roger Maris’ record of 61 if he got hot. Alas, it didn’t happen. King Kong Kingman hit a respectable 19 bombs in the 2nd half of the 1979 season, finishing with a league leading 48. Every Baseball season is filled with a lot of these mathematical figments of imagination. Sometimes they even come true. In 2024, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani both had dream seasons. Judge did not break his American League home run record of 62. But he came close with 58. Ohtani had a season for the ages, becoming the first man to hit both 50 homers and steal 50 bases in the same year. He also set the Dodger franchise record with 54 home runs, breaking the previous record of 49 (Shawn Green). All season long, Ohtani and Judge made the 2024 season a mathematical delight, keeping on top of their paces for possibly historical seasons.
The Future of Baseball?
At the beginning of the 20th Century, the New York Yankees were sometimes a contender but hardly the most successful team in the first two decades of that new century (that would have been the Boston Red Sox, if measured by World Series won). At the beginning of the 3rd decade of that 20th Century (the 1920s), the Yanks traded for Boston’s best player who also happened to be the best player in Baseball (Babe Ruth). The Yankees went on to be the most successful team of the 20th Century with 27 World Championships. At the beginning of the 21st Century, the Los Angeles Dodgers were sometimes a contender but hardly the most sucessful team in the first two decades of the new century (that would have been the Boston Red Sox, if measured by World Series won). At the beginning of the 3rd decade of that 21st Century (the 2020s), the Dodgers traded for Boston’s best player (Mookie Betts) and then signed arguably the best player in Baseball (Shohei Ohtani). Will the Los Angeles Dodgers be the greatest team of the 21st Century like the New York Yankees were for the 20th? Only time will tell. But it sure looks good right now. The Dodgers are perfectly situated to be the beneficiaries of a steady stream of Japanese Stars with which to build their dynasty (as the Yankees were the beneficiaries of a steady stream of Boston Red Sox stars). For the team of Jackie Robinson, this almost seems like fate.*
*The Dodgers have already signed two time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell in the 2024-25 off season. If they sign Roki Sasaki and Juan Soto too, sportswriters will have to start thinking up cool nicknames like the Yankees’ “Murderer’s Row” [The Killer Queue? The Assassin Train? Something not so violent?].
2024 Team Abstracts:
With the 2024 season in the books, the rest of this post will consist of brief snapshots of the state of each MLB team. These snapshots will be broken up into two parts. First, there will be a brief discussion of some aspect of that team’s 2024 season that stands out [Prognosis]. Second, there will be a superficial perusal of a player or 2 (or 3) who stepped up in 2024 and may a building block going forward for the club [Youngblood].
1. Los Angeles Dodgers [98-64]
First Third: 33-21 [99] ; Halfway: 50-31 [100]; Second Third: 30-24/63-45 [94.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 35-19 [98-64].
Prognosis: The Dodgers have won 91 or more games every full season since 2013 (and were on pace to win 116 during the Covid pandemic year of 2020). No team has ever won 100 (or more games) four seasons in a row. In 2024, the Dodgers could have become the first team to accomplish this feat (106 in 2021, 111 in 2021, and 100 in 2022). But they won only 98. Despite having an off-season, the 2024 season will go down as pivotal in LA Dodger history. They won the 2024 World Series. Shohei Ohtani joined the team. The future is so bright they may all have to wear shades. If most of the injured Dodger pitchers come back in 2025, the team will be a juggernaut. Will the Dodgers embrace their future as the 21st Century Yankees? If they sign Roki Sasaki, the Japanese star pitcher who will be posted in January 2025, the Dodgers will be embracing this destiny. If they sign Juan Soto, the Yankees slugger, they will have married it. Youngblood: The Dodgers let Corey Seager and Trea Turner go (in part) because they believed in their 2016 first round pick: Gavin Lux. In 2019, Lux destroyed Triple-A pitching. But his 2020 season was lost to Covid. In 2021 and 2022, Lux struggled to establish himself. Then the 2023 season was lost to a wrecked knee. Lux looked tentative to start 2024. However, in the second half of 2024, Lux finally seemed to have arrived. It seemed like some of that original promise was finally being delivered. But then Lux ended the season poorly. Will the Dodgers finally cut bait on Lux? Imagine how good this team could have been if they had kept either Seager or Turner. As far as actual rookies go, the Dodgers established Gavin Stone in their rotation (11-5, 3.53 ERA). But then Stone ended his season as just another Dodger pitcher on the injury list. Of course, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was hardly a rookie (even if he qualified as one), but he showed the goods both before and after the injury avalanche got him too.
2. Philadelphia Phillies [95-67]
First Third: 38-16 [114]; Halfway: 53-28 [106]; Second Third: 28-26/65-43 [97.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 30-24 [95-67].
Prognosis: The Phillies looked like the one team that would just coast to the finish line with a 100 win season for 2024. But mid-season injuries to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber knocked them off that 100 win path. However, like the Dodgers, the Phillies basically spent the entire season looking right past the regular season to the play-offs and the World Series. Once again, they were disappointed. Like the 2008 to 2011 Phillies, the current Phillies team is getting better every year while also seemingly sliding further away from the World Series itself. Will the 2025 Phillies win over 100 games and get immediately bounced from the Play-offs like the 2011 Phillies? Watching the Phils in the play-offs, the problem may be that they are too traditional. Modern play-off strategy is to basically manage like there is no tomorrow. LA Dodger manager Dave Roberts gave a master class of managing like his pants were on fire during the 2024 play-offs. On the other hand, Phillies’ “old school” manager Rob Thomson managed like there would always be another day. Strangely enough, the maverick Phillie general manager Dave Drombowski may be too much of a traditionalist. He extended Thomson’s contract through the 2026 season after the season ended. Youngblood: The Phillies, as a mature contender, did not had any real contributions from a rookie in 2024. The development of Ranger Suarez and Christopher Sanchez into reliable rotation mainstays in 2024 was somewhat unforeseen, since neither man was young. Andrew Painter, the one rookie that could have made quite an impression, lost the 2024 season to Tommy John surgery. Hopefully he makes it all the way back.
3. New York Yankees [94-68]
First Third: 37-17 [111]; Halfway: 52-29 [104]; Second Third: 26-28/63-45 [94.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 31-23 [94-68].
Prognosis: The New York Yankees started the 2024 season so hot that they were able to withstand a severe mid-season swoon before cruising into the play-offs and then all the way into the World Series (their first appearance there since the Yanks’ 2009 Championship). To listen to some sportswriters and Yankee fans talk about it, you would assume the Yankees were pathetic from 2010 through 2023. The actual fact is that the Yankees worst season in that 14 year span was an 82-80 finish in 2023. In those 14 years, the Yankees never had a losing record. They won 100 games in 2018, 103 in 2019, and 99 in 2022. Other than those three seasons, the Yanks won over 90 games five other times. In other words, the Yankees had 14 straight seasons without a losing record with 8 seasons of over 90 wins including 2 seasons of 100 (or more) victories sandwiched in-between World Series appearances. All fans should be so lucky. The real problem here may be a perception that Yankee owner Hal Steinbrenner only begrudgingly fields an expensive team. Unlike his late father George, Hal will never “damn the torpedoes” and just use the Yankees financial might to simply overwhelm the opposition. In defense of Hal, his father was pathologically competitive. The big story this off-season is whether the Yankees will overwhelm Juan Soto with an offer that he can’t refuse. The little story is that, even if Soto signs elsewhere, the NY Yankees will still be good. Youngblood: The emergance of Luis Gil as a top-of-the-rotation starter was one of the major reasons for the Yankee’s great start in 2024. As with all starting pitchers, how long Gil will be able to keep his arm healthy is a question mark. Even more unexpected was the emergance of 24-year-old rookie catcher Austin Wells. Have the Yanks possibly found the next link in their long legacy of good and great catchers (Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra, Elston Howard, Thurman Munson, Jorge Posada) or will Wells turn into the pumpkin that he seemed to be as the season was winding down. Can he adjust to the adjustments that pitchers are making against him and keep himself healthy at the most demanding position? It will be interesting to see.
4t. Milwaukee Brewers [93-69]
First Third: 31-23 [93]; Halfway: 48-33 [96]; Second Third: 30-24/61-47 [91.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 32-22 [93-69].
Prognosis: The Brew Crew seem to be the ultimate “under the radar” team. Despite trading way their ace pitcher before the season, the Brewers kept chugging along like an auto maintaining 90+ miles per hour no matter how many pieces fall off. Milwaukee hasn’t had a real losing season since back in 2016 [they did go 29-31 in Covid wrecked 2020]. You have to give credit to a well run sabermetric front office and an owner who stays out of the way. In a bad year, they will win 80+ and compete. In a good year, they win 90+ and take a shot at glory. But, strangely enough, the Brewers never feel like a real contender. Of course, the Brew Crew are one of five current MLB teams who have never won the World Series (along with Colorado, San Diego, Seattle, & Tampa Bay). In the olden days, this would be explained by a curse (like the Cubs’ billygoat curse or the Red Sox’ curse of Babe Ruth). The Brewers need a curse of the Seattle Pilots (in honor of Jim Bouton and Ball Four) or a Bud Selig curse to explain away their oddly successful mediocrity (and to use as publicity until they break it). Youngblood: The Alcoholics debuted their next potential superstar, Jackson Chourio, in 2024. After a slow start, the 20-year- old Churio was the Brew Crew’s best player in 2024. His 148 game, 21 HR, 79 RBI, .275 BA and .464 SA stats were pretty good but his second half (after the All-Star Game) 61 G-12 HR-44 RBI-.310 BA-.552 SA stats scream superstar. The upside seems to be the Hall of Fame. The downside, as long as injuries or fate does not intervene, would seem to be a Raul Mondesi type career. In any case, it seems that Chourio will be the foundational superstar for the Drunkards for quite some time. Their signing of Chourio to that eight year contract (with two more team options) before the 2024 season seems like genius right now as long as the curse of Wander Franco doesn’t get him.
4t. San Diego Padres [93-69]
First Third: 27-27 [81]; Halfway: 41-40 [82]; Second Third: 30-24/57-51 [85.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 36-18 [93-69].
Prognosis: The Friars were predicted to be a playoff team lock in 2023. But, after underperforming badly, the Monsignors fell just short of the play-offs despite a futile last minute rush. The team owner who was fueling the push for a Championship died and key players left. So, in 2024, the Padres were forecast to spend the season picking up the shattered pieces. Instead, San Diego muddled along, then caught fire, and charged into the 2024 play-offs. At the crest of their wave, they almost took out the eventual championship Dodgers and advanced to the World Series. One of the beauties of sport is the underdog team that overperforms after disappointing (the NY Mets of 2024 also fit this description). On the other hand, the 2024 Padres have a lot of similarities to the 2024 Brewers. They finished with the same record and neither team has ever won the World Series. Both team’s best player was a rookie named Jackson. But, in 2024, the Brew Crew just never really ignited while the Padres crashed painfully. One has to ask the age-old question: Is it better to burn out or fade away? Prognosis: If the Padres were the HMS Titanic, GM AJ Preller would be the man shoveling Major Leaguers & Minor League prospects into the coal burners at a furious pace to increase the speed. Thus, the Padre’s patience with rookie outfielder Jackson Merrill was fascinating. And it was rewarded. Before the season started, the three top rookie player hopefuls were all named Jackson. In order of hype, they would have been probabaly been listed as: 1. Jackson Holliday, 2. Jackson Chourio and 3. Jackson Merrill. But Merrill ended up as the best of them in 2024. If not for Paul Skenes*, Merrill would have been the runaway NL Rookie-of-the-Year winner (with Jackson Chourio second). Of course, Holliday spent most of 2024 back in the minors. It will be interesting to see if their careers continue along this path. Like Chourio, Merrill was on-fire after the All-Star break [61 G-12 HR-44 RBI-.314 BA-.596 SA]. In fact, his post All-Star stats are almost copies of Chourio’s numbers, just a little bit better.
*The Players Union seems to have missed a sub-clause or two here. In the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the MLB and the Union agreed to fight rampant service time manipulation with the PPI (Player Promotion Incentive). If a qualifying Rookie player accrued a year of service time as a rookie and then won the Rookie of the Year Award, the player’s club received a draft pick after the first round. Because he was brought up mid-season by the Pirates, Paul Skenes did not qualify for the extra draft pick. But Jackson Merrill, because he finished 2nd to Skenes in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting, did not bring home a draft pick either. If the Player’s Union had been on the ball, the PPI would have just defaulted from Skenes to Merrill.
6. Cleveland Guardians [92-69]
First Third: 38-16 [114]; Halfway: 52-29 [104]; Second Third: 28-26/66-42 [99.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 26-27 [92-69].
Prognosis: The pythagorem theorem finally caught up with the Guardians in 2024. The Guards spent their entire season outperforming the percentages (politically correct or not, Guards simply doesn’t have the ring of the Tribe). After breaking out of the gate like Secretariat on a bender, Cleveland simply played .500 ball for the rest of the year and then glided into the playoffs. The Guardian’s transcedence of Baseball mathematics was usually credited to the club’s sublime bullpen and their great closer, Emmanuel Clase. But the Baseball Gods are fickle. Once Cleveland drifted into the playoffs, their relief core betrayed them. Emmanuel Clase, who was almost untouchable during the regular season, went from superman to a pinata. For those who like their karma served cold, it was a frigid fate. Guardian manager Stephen Vogt, who had replaced the very successful Terry Francona before the 2024 season, got a lot of credit for how well the team played at first. But, in the end, Cleveland finished with 92 wins, which was pretty much the normal win total under Francona. Youngblood: All of the pre-season prognasticators believed that a lack of power would be a serious problem for Cleveland in 2024. So their resident superstar Jose Ramirez decided to personally deal with that issue [he would hit 39 homers in 2024]. Josh Naylor also stepped up [with 31 HRs]. Mid-year, they were joined by one Jhonkensy Noel [13 HRs in 67 games]. A 6 feet 3 inch, 250+ pound Dominican, the sturdy Noel goes by the wonderful nickname of “Big Xmas” (in honor of his fellow Dominican David “Big Papi” Ortiz). Despite a minor league track record that suggests Major League pitchers will eventually carve him up and strikeouts will eat his future, there is also the possibility that Noel can eventually stay ahead of the coming adjustments. Just watching him hit, it appears that Noel has already figured out that he doesn’t have to pull every pitch. With his great strength, he has opposite field power. Without any adjustments, Noel will be a 30 homer a year, low BA slugger going forward. If he can adjust, Noel will be a 40+ Homers a year monster. Noel is my favorite 2024 Rookie, if only for the rekindled memories of my favorite player of the 21st Century.
7. Baltimore Orioles [91-71]
First Third: 35-19 [105]; Halfway: 51-30 [102]; Second Third: 29-25/64-44 [96]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 27-27 [91-71].
Prognosis: Despite going from 101 wins in 2023 to 91 wins in 2024, the Birds are still on the dynasty track. After a second straight 90+ win play-off team, the three brutal 100+ loss seasons suffered between 2018 to 2021 are finally in the rear view mirror. All they need now is a World Series appearance or two to take the next step (and hopefully win a World Championship). More importantly, the Birdos seem to have upgraded to a new ownership group that will attempt to keep the dynasty together (replacing the Angelos family is almost surely a net poisitve). It will be interesting to see how the Orioles try to turn their horde of minor league talent into Major League success. If they can resign or replace ace Corbin Burnes, the Birdos will be on the right path. Youngblood: All this being said, the El Birdos treatment of infielder Jackson Holliday’s 2024 rookie season raises a tiny red flag. Holliday hit well enough to make the team out of Spring Training. The Birdos then sent him down to Triple-A anyways. Shortly thereafter, they brought him right back up. Obviously pressing, Holliday slapped an atrocious two singles in 34 at bats. So the Orioles sent him back down again. They left him in the minors until July 31st, bringing him back for the pennant race. Would it have been better to keep him right out of Spring Training, bat him ninth, and tell him that (rain or shine) he was there to stay? Do everything possible to let him relax into the Majors? Perhaps there was an underlying strategy to all this? In 2024, Holliday used up his rookie elligibility. Because of his poor season, he did not win the Rookie of the Year. Of course, this would have shortened his eligibility for free agency from 6 years to 5. One of the keys to any sports dynasty is to know how to break a rookie in. The current Oriole organization hasn’t shown that it has acquired this skill yet. How Holliday responds in 2025 to this poor handling of his rookie season will be interesting to watch. Another interesting player to watch in 2025 will be Adley Rutschman. After 3 years, it seems like Rutschman may be suffering from Catcher Stagnation Syndrome.* It may be yet another example of poor Oriole talent handling.
*Catcher Stagnation Syndrome: Because of the brutal wear and tear of their position on the field, tthe inability of catchers to improve over time.
8t. Atlanta Braves [89-73]
First Third: 31-23 [93]; Halfway: 46-35 [92]; Second Third: 28-26/59-49 [88.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 30-24 [89-73].
Prognosis: In cartoons, a character would step on the prongs of a rake and then get whacked in the face by the handle. Rooting for the Atlanta Braves in 2024 must have been like watching someone step on 100 rakes in a row. The good news was that, despite injuries and underperformance hobbling the team all season long, Atlanta still won 89 games and made the playoffs (although they were quickly bounced out). But It is also obvious that the Braves’ season was also only this successful because of a lucky trade. They picked up former ace pitcher Chris Sale off the trash heap and he then won the 2024 NL Cy-Young-Award. Despite this, you had to root for the Braves in 2024, a team trying to win a tough race while stuck in third gear. Just getting into the playoffs must have felt like winning the World Series to them. The Braves’ motto in 2024 must have been: Live to fight another day. It will be quite interesting to see how the Braves do in 2025. Often, when everything goes wrong for a club one year, it bounces back in the other direction in the following year. If this holds true, the Braves should be a menace in 2025. Youngblood: With all the injuries to Braves players in 2024, Atlanta rookies had plenty of opportunites to shine. The best of them was the wonderfully named Spencer Schwellenbach. Coming up from the minors on May 29th, 2024, Schwellenbach showed a repertoire of pitches good enough to give Braves’ fans fond memories of their long gone aces (Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz). While it is unlikely that he will last that long (Schwellenbach has already had a Tommy John in 2021), his emergance gives the Braves a good chance of replacing the departed Max Fried in their rotation. If ace Spencer Strider returns healthy from his own Tommy John, the Braves may not even miss a stride back to the top of the standings.
8t. Arizona Diamondbacks [89-73]
First Third: 25-29 [75]; Halfway: 39-42 [78]; Second Third: 32-22/57-51 [85.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 32-22 [89-73]
Prognosis: The 2024 Arizona Diamonback season may seem like a step back from their 2023 year. In 2023, the Snakes snuck into the playoffs and made it all the way into the World Series before losing. In 2024, the Diamonbacks finished the year tied with two other teams with the exact same records for the final two playoff spots. But Arizona was eliminated because both teams had winning records against Arizona during the season. The Serpents were eliminated without even a old-style one-game play-off series. However, the Serpientes went from 84 wins in 2023 to 89 wins in 2024. The team is still on the glory road and the immediate future looks bright. The Front office simply needs to make smart moves and let the talent mature. Youngblood: Of course, it would help Arizona take the next step up if the team had a true ace and superstar. In 2024, sophmore pitcher Brandon Pfaadt established himself in the Majors. He made 32 starts, pitched 181.2 innings, walked only 42 players, and struck out 185. But a 11-10 record and 4.71 ERA was not good enough. If Pfaadt can improve, he could certainly be their ace. Some would argue that Arizona already has a superstar player in Ketel Marte. But, even in his best years, he falls a little short. He is just a solid star. 2023 Rookie-of-the-Year Sophmore Corbin Carroll certainly seemed to be on the verge of superstardom (25 HR-76 RBI-.285 BA). But his sophmore 2024 season (22 HR- 75 RBI-.231 BA) was a disappointment. But this comes with a caveat. Carroll evidently had a bad shoulder early in 2024. His statistics after the All-Star break seem to show that his shoulder had healed (64G-17HR-42 RBI-.259 BA- .568 SA). If he produces at that rate over a entire season, Carroll will be a superstar. There is even a good chance that he can do better.
8t. New York Mets [89-73]
First Third: 22-32 [66]; Halfway: 40-41 [80]; Second Third: 35-19/57-51 [85.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 32-22 [89-73].
Prognosis: Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Steve Cohen is often publicized as the “richest owner in Baseball.” Cohen has now owned the New York Mets for four years (2021-2024). In 2021, the Mets finished 77-85 as the residue of Wilpon’s (the former owners) mismanagement washed away. In 2022, Cohen turned on his money faucet, brought in a bunch of high priced free agents, and the Mets went 101-61. But that season ended in disappointment as the Braves ran them down for the divisional crown and the Metros were quickly eliminated with a Wild Card Series loss in the playoffs. In 2023, Cohen tried to replicate the 2022 season by throwing money around. Instead, the 2023 Mets were a massive disappointment with a record of 75-87. So the Metros announced that they would reset in 2024 and take a couple of seasons off to rebuild. The players certainly seemed to buy into this strategy and the team floundered in the early going. But then they caught fire. New York roared down the stretch right into the playoffs. The Mets then eliminated two good teams (Milwaukee and the Phillies) before falling to the eventual World Champion Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Will the team’s success in 2024 cause owner Steve Cohen to scrap the rebuilding plans and return to his former free spending ways? Youngblood: If Steve Cohen signs 26-year-old superstar Juan Soto for 2025, the five-year-plan is toast. If they add Soto, they will be going for it big time. And this will be very interesting. Soto would join a couple of other sluggers with 30 home run potential (Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos). Of course, this doesn’t even include yet another 30 HR slugger and the Met’s current best player, Francisco Lindor. If the Mets also resign first baseman Pete Alonso, there is good chance that the Mets 2025 line-up would start with the 20+ HR hitting on-base machine Brandon Nimmo followed by five straight 30 HR crunching threats. The 2025 Metropolitan line-up may be quite intimidating.
11. Houston Astros [88-73]
First Third: 24-30 [72]; Halfway: 40-41 [80]; Second Third: 32-22/56-52 [84.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 32-21 [88-73]
Prognosis: The 2024 Astros started slow but kept on coming all season long, eventually making the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. It has been pretty obvious since 2023 that the Astronauts’ success cycle would be drawing to a close soon (the signing of first baseman Jose Abreu in 2023 was the canary in the coal mine). But the Asteroids were able to fight off the undertaker for one more year during 2024. Although tainted by the 2017 trash-can-banging and sign-stealing scandal, this Astro success cycle was quite successful. The team won two World Series titles during their ten year run (2015-2024). But rampant owner interference and the jettisoning of a Moneyball philosophy front office for one with a “jockocracy” ideology will eventually overwhelm this team. Youngblood: 30-year-old rookie pitcher Ronel Blanco illustrated a somewhat hidden strength of this Astro dynasty. The Asteroids were able to find and develop Latin pitchers with little to no pedigrees [large signing bonuses] such as Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco fits this pattern well. Signed way back in 2016 at the age of 22, Blanco has wandered through the Astro’s minor league for years before finally making undistinguished appearances for the Astronauts in 2022 (7.11 ERA in 6.1 IP) & 2023 (4.50 ERA in 52.0 IP). His 2024 season (13-8 with a 2.80 ERA in 167.1 IP) was a complete surprise. It will be interesting to see if Blanco can maintain any of his 2024 success in 2025. If he can, it could help keep the Asteroids from finally succumbing to gravity for yet another year. Meanwhile, perhaps 2025 will be the season in which slugger extraordinaire Yordan Alvarez plays a full season (150 or more games).
12t. Detroit Tigers [86-76]
First Third: 27-27 [81]; Halfway: 37-44 [74]; Second Third: 25-29/52-56 [78.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 34-20 [86-76].
Prognosis: In 2024, the Detroit Tigers emerged from a long slumber in the baseball depths (2017-2023). This came as a surprise to not only the rest of the League but to the Tigers themselves. At the trade deadline, the Tigers, believing themselves not to be contenders, traded veterans away, including their #2 starter, Jack Flaherty. But a final surge at the end of the season put them into the playoffs. There is a chance that the Tigers’ conversion from a kitten to a tomcat may be somewhat premature. But the Tigers now have a resident superstar in Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal and also potential superstar hitter in Riley Greene. Youngblood: It doesn’t take much to dream about the Tigers becoming an offensive juggernaut. The ballclub has quite a few players who could back up Riley Greene in the line-up if they all take a step forward together: Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling, the and fantastically named, western gunslinger sounding, Colt Keith. Riley Greene himself could still improve. However, the one Big Cat who seems to have the most potetnial to improve has to be 26-year-old Kerry Carpenter. He has the hitting potential to turn into a 30+ HR/100+ RBI and .275-.300 BA slugger if he can just play a complete season. If Carpenter, Torkelson, and Greene can all reach their 30+ HR potential in 2025, there is a good chance that the Tigers continue their 2024 rampage into the next season.
12t. Kansas City Royals [86-76]
First Third: 34-20 [102] ; Halfway: 43-38 [86]; Second Third: 25-29/59-49 [88.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 27-27 [86-76].
Prognosis: The Royals spent the entire 2024 season simply going for it. They signed their one potential superstar long term, signed necessary free agent pitchers to shore up their staff, and then continued trying to upgrade their roster all season long. In other words, the small market Royals spent talent through trades and money in 2024 like an expiring man trying to go out with a bang. Considering that they finished 2023 with a 56-106 record, their 2024 strategy seemed to lack basic sanity. But incredibly, it worked. The Kansas City Royals made the playoffs in 2024 for the very first time since they won the World Championship in 2015. Usually, this type of desperation scenario ends in a complete disaster (the 2023 Los Angeles Angels, for example). Any true Baseball fan has got to be rooting for the Royals after the 2024 season. They should rewarded for their institutional bravery. Youngblood: Before the 2024 season, Bobby Witt Jr. signed a contract that will keep him on the Royals until he is at least 31-years-old. Witt then exploded into a superstar during the 2024 season and finished second to Aaron Judge in the AL Most Valuable Player [MVP] voting. Will he continue to improve? If he improves as much as he did from 2023 to 2024, Witt will be the greatest player in the game, bar none. Even if he just maintains or slightly recedes from his 2024 level, the Kansas City Royals have their franchise player for quite some time to come. Witt currently comps, at age 24, as prime time Robin Yount. There is even a chance that he will eventually eclipse George Brett as the face of the KC Royals franchise. This is Hall of Fame stuff. Of course, Witt’s career could crash and burn like Grady Sizemore’s did. Hopefully, the Royals can continue to surround him with enough talent that he reaches the playoffs multiple times.
14. Seattle Mariners [85-77]
First Third: 28-26 [84]; Halfway: 45-36 [90]; Second Third: 28-26/56-52 [84.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 29-25 [85-77]
Prognosis: The story of the Seattle Mariners 2024 season was reportedly a great pitching staff dragged down by a complete lack of offense. Of course, some of it was simply the ballpark. The Mariners’ hitters scored 371 runs on the road against just 305 at home. The Mariners’ pitchers allowed 351 runs on the road but just 251 at home. In other words, the Mariners’ 2024 pitching staff was probably better than their batting line-up, but not by much. But it also may have just been a park illusion. Perhaps the Sailors should reshape their park to equalize the benefits given to pitchers and/or hitters. As it is currently configured, the park may contribute to some unfortunate Mariner front office delusions about their own team. Also, much like San Francisco in the National League, the large bias of their home park towards pitchers may discourage free agent hitters to sign with Seattle. Youngblood: George Kirby is a fascinating pitcher. He has extreme control. In 2024, which was his third season, he walked just 23 men while striking out 179 in 191 innings pitched. The 26-year-old Kirby had a good, but not fantastic, 3.53 ERA. This was basically his third straight, pretty much identical, season in a row. How can the Mariners help Kirby improve and become the ace they need? During the 2024 season, there was a fascinating story about Greg Maddux (who the control freak Kirby has often been compared to). Apparently in 2008, Greg Maddux, in the last year of his career, was playing for the Dodgers when he taught the Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda his two seam fastball. This pitch looked like a ball to the batter and then, at the last moment dove back over the plate, for a strike. Kuroda credited this two-seamer with extending his career for 10 years. Maybe the Mariners should hire Maddux to tutor Kirby. What better pitch for a man who is a strike throwing machine than one that does not even look like strike until the last minute?
15t. Chicago Cubs [83-79]
First Third: 27-27 [81]; Halfway: 37-44 [74]; Second Third: 24-30/51-57 [76.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 32-22 [83-79].
Prognosis: The Cubs were one of the many middling type teams that made some nice upgrades during the 2023-2024 off-season and hoped to catch a wave that they could ride home into the play-offs. But injuries to their star players during 2024, dashed those hopes against the rocks. Much like the Boston Red Sox, the Chicago Cubbies will reload in 2025 and try to catch the next wave to contention. In fact the Bear Cubs and the Red Sox have many similarities in common. Like the Red Sox, the Cubs have been stuck in the breakdown lane since ending a reported ancient curse. Like the Red Sox, they no longer seem overly anxious to field a winning team. Like the Red Sox, the Cubbies seem to be trying to accumulate as much young talent as humanly possible in the hope that it will all jell into a playoff run before their fans boycott the park. Youngblood: Outside of the L.A. Dodgers, the Cubs may have the best refugees from the Japanese Major Leagues. While not young, the 30-year-old pitcher Shota Imanaga was worth every penny in his first Major League season [15-3/2.91 ERA/173.1 IP/28 BB/174 SO]. Now in his third season, the 29-year old Seiya Suzuki has steadily improved despite being injured in each and every season. Hopefully he gets just one season of good health to really show what he can do. The Cubs also added former Dodgers prospect Michael Busch in 2024. The 26-year-old Busch had a 2024 season that could be built upon [21 HR-65 RBI-.248 BA). The Cubbie’s talent pool is deep, but they don’t have a single superstar type player. Collections of good players without any great players do not often win it all.
15t. St. Louis Cardinals [83-79]
First Third: 27-27 [81]; Halfway: 42-39 [84]; Second Third: 29-25/56-52 [84.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 27-27 [83-79].
Prognosis: The St. Louis Cardinals, years ago now, were one of the teams in the forefront of the Moneyball/Sabermetrics revolution. But they lost their stats guru (Jeff Luhnow) to the Houston Astros. Then one of their remaining Moneyball guys was busted for a cyber-crime (breaking into Luhnow’s Astro database). In reaction to all this, the Cards went in a different direction. Or, to be precise, they went back to the type of jock meritocracy that Moneyball had replaced. The Redbirds hired a traditional GM (John Mozeliak) to head the club. The Cards have been in a slow motion death spiral ever since that fateful decision. After the 2023 season, sabermetics would have demanded that the club reset. Instead, the Cardinals decided to double down on their current club, bringing in even more veterans to prop the team up. It worked for awhile (though Pythagoras said it was all an illusion). It is really hard to compete when you are the stupidest guy in the room. Youngblood: In 2023, the St. Louis Cardinals had a potential Rookie-of-the-Year prospect in 3rd baseman Jordan Walker. One way to break a rookie player into the Majors is to proceed cautiously. For batters, a club can platoon. For pitchers, a team can start them in relief. At all times, the team should let the player know that it has their back. They are going to let the player settle in. Of course, a team can also use the old “sink or swim” approach. Throw the player right into the conflict. Yank him right out of the line-up if any little thing goes wrong. Put him on the bench to rot. Send him to the Minor Leagues and recall him. Last year, the Cards did their best to wreck Jordan’s rookie year by changing his position from 3B to the OF (without even prepping him), & then sending him down to the Minors the minute he cooled off from at hot start. It will be interesting to see if he can recover. In 2024, the Cardinals brought up their hotshot SS prospect, Masyn Winn. They left Winn alone and simply let him play. Why the Cardinals didn’t treat poor Jordan Walker like this will apparently remain a mystery.*
* Incredibly, Masyn Winn didn’t get any support, not even a third place vote, for Rookie-of-the Year in 2024 despite finishing 2nd to Paul Skenes in Rookie bWAR. (Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement). Weird.
17. Minnesota Twins [82-80]
First Third: 30-24 [90]; Halfway: 45-36 [90]; Second Third: 30-24/60-48 [90.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 22-32 [82-80].
Prognosis: For most of the 2024 season, the Twins looked like lock to make the playoffs. Their 2023 strategy of deep depth because their players are so injury-prone was working again. But then the Doppelgangers were dragged down by injuries and slumps as the season expired. As usual, the Twinkies were pulled down by the inability of their three potential superstars (Carlos Correa, Brian Buxton and Royce Lewis) to just remain healthy for a full year. In Baseball history, has any other ball club ever had three such injury-prone star players? Of course, there were a bunch of other Twins’ players that just could not post everyday either (Max Kepler, Edward Julien &, Jose Miranda, for a start).* Predicting how the Twins will do in the year 2025 is an exercise in futility. Will this team have good health? Then they will be a contender. Will they all be unavailable for some portion of the season like usual? Then they won’t be contenders. Youngblood: Royce Lewis has been in the Majors for three years now. In those three years, Lewis has played 152 total games. In that span, he has hit 33 HRs-104 RBI-.268 BA-.497 BA in 549 at bats. If he could just stay healthy, Lewis would be star player. As far as actual rookies go, starter Simeon Woods Richardson had a very good year. But perhaps the most interesting young Twin is sophomore first baseman and slugger Matt Wallner. Wallner, a left-handed batter, destroys right-handed pitching. But he apparently cannot hit left-handed pitching at all so the Twins platoon him (only let him hit righties). There is a potential 30-40 home runs a year bat in Wallner if he can just learn to hit lefties. Would it hurt to simply put him on first base and see if a little on-the-job training could bring some of his potential left-handed hittting talent out? With all the new Sabermetics’ programs out there, could he be taught? It certainly seems worth a try.
*In Ocotber 31, 2024, 26-year-old Minnesota Twins’ deep depth outfielder and former top prospect Alex Kiriloff announced his retirement due to one injury after another crippling his talent and career prospects. During his career, he played 54 games in Triple-A, hitting 17 HRs & 53 RBIs with a .362 BA and .667 SA. His promise will never be realized. Seems like perfect Twinkie.
18. Boston Red Sox [81-81]
First Third: 27-27 [81]; Halfway: 43-38 [86]; Second Third: 31-23/58-50 [87.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 23-31 [81-81].
Prognosis: The BoSox strategy of constantly building, but never really going for it (in place since their 2018 World Championship), continued during the 2024 season. The team stayed on the fringes all year long and will be able to point to all the talent bubbling up when they sell tickets for 2025. Oddly enough, one somewhat justifiable decision probably doomed their chances in 2024. In Spring Training, the Crimson Hose dumped the injury-plagued Chris Sale, technically their ace, on Atlanta for more slowly bubbling talent. Improbably, Sale returned to his sparkling 2018 form after spending 2019 to 2023 basically nursing one injury after another. With Sale in 2024, the BoSox would almost surely have made it to the playoffs. If the Red Sox strategy for 2025 is to once again hope that Lady Luck winks their way, they may want to consider that she doesn’t actually like them. Youngblood: The Boston Red Sox debuted two fine rookie players in 2024: Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. Rafaela is the younger and more interesting one. He is fast in every way (his swing, quick twitch reflexes, running the bases, etc). But he has one great weakness (he doesn’t control the strike zone). Abreu is more steady (a good hitter with power). Unfortunately, the BoSox potential sophmore star and middle-of the-order bat, Tristan Casas, spent almost the entire season sidelined with a rib injury. On top of all this, the Red Sox reportedly have 4 of the very top prospects in the Minors (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel). Who will they trade for pitching when they finally decide to compete? Will they ever again decide to once again join the fray for pennant and glory? Red Sox Nation waits with irritability. But the smart money is on 2025 being just another season of slow boil.
19t. San Francisco Giants [80-82]
First Third: 27-27 [81]; Halfway: 39-42 [78]; Second Third: 26-28/53-55 [79.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 27-27 [80-82].
Prognosis: Can a team’s progress through the sucess cycle be derailed by just one fluke season? The success cycle usually begins with a club that is down and out, finishing at the bottom of the standings. This team acquires top draft picks and can trade away it regulars for more young players. All this talent matures and the team rises and contends, hopefully getting to the World Series at least, if not winning one. Then the talent ages out and the team descends back down in the standings until it bottoms out and the cycle begins all over again. From 2009 to 2016, the Giants had a good run, inexplicably winning 3 World Series during that time (2010-2012-2014).* The team fell apart in 2017 but quickly rose back to mediocrity. This rise caused the Giants to try to restart their success cycle. And then, in 2021, they went an insane 107-55 with a badly aging line-up. From 2022 to 2024, they tried hard to recapture this magic. But it resulted in years of mediocrity (81-81, 79-83, and 80-82) and eventually cost their GM, Farhan Zaidi, his job (much to the delight of many SF Giant fans). It can be argued that the SF Gigantes should have wallowed at the bottom a bit longer after their 2017 bottom. But what is done is done. Youngblood: The Giants do have some interesting but not really established players (such as Tyler Fitzgerald & Kyle Harrison). However, the shortstop Fitzgerald is already 26 and Harrison is a pitcher, an inherently risky proposition. The Giants face the exact same decision that they have since 2021: should they rebuild or go for it. Of course, going for it has not worked for three years in a row now. They still desperately need a superstar.
*If you believe in the God of Baseball, the Giants’ three-straight even-season Wold Series victories from 2010 to 2014 are proof that he has a sick sense of humor. Barry Bonds, one of the greatest players ever but who was never on a World Championship team, was forcibly retired by the SF Giants and MLB after the 2007 season. The prickly and disliked Bonds then had to watch his team win those three Series in a row. Ouch.
19t. Tampa Bay Rays [80-82]
First Third: 26-28 [78]; Halfway: 40-41 [80]; Second Third: 29-25/55-53 [82.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 25-29 [80-82].
Prognosis: In 2024, the former Devil Rays had their first losing season since 2017. It will be interesting to see if their success cycle from 2018 to 2023 is now over and the Rays will have to reset. It seems like they should. There seems to be no escape from the Wander Franco disaster. Strangely enough, the signing of Franco to an 11-year 182-million dollar contract in November 2021 seemed like just another brilliant move by the respected Tampa front office.* Franco looked like a pretty good bet for a Hall-of-Fame career. But then the curse of Cesar Cedeno struck (immaturity). It looks like it will be years before Franco is able to restart his career (if ever). Probably the only way that Franco will get into the Hall now is by buying a ticket at the door. What happens to this franchise in 2025 seems like a good test to see if they can rebound. Youngblood: The Manta Rays got pitcher Ryan Pepiot from the LA Dodgers in exchange for their former ace pitcher, Tyler Glasnow. This was a perfect example of what should be called a Tampa trade. Tyler Glasnow was traded for some one who could fill at least 50% of his value at far less than half his price (the trade also contained 2 outfielders who fit the same bill (Tampa sent veteran Manuel Margot for propsect Jonny DeLuca). The 26-year-old Pepiot went 8-8 with a 3.60 ERA/48 BB/142 SO in 130.0 IP. Good stuff. The Rays may be able to get over the Wander Franco debacle if their best prospect, Junior Caminero, develops. The 6-foot-1/220 lb 21-year-old Caminero may not the same caliber of defensive talent as Franco, but he has a chance to be an even better hitter with much greater power. If Franco never returns, the lost paring of Caminero and Franco in the middle of the Tampa Bay Rays batting order may be written in the book of “Never Was.”
*In defense of Tampa Bay’s front office, it should be pointed out that Franco has never really collected much from this contract. His salary in 2024 was just 2.454 million. He was scheduled to receive 8+ million in 2025 but will not get paid as he is on the ineligable list [potentially wiping out his 15+ rising to 25+ million salaries from 2026 to 2028 too]. It will be interesting to see if Franco returns in, say, 2030 after missing years of playing time. But is then due the 25.454 million on the re-activated contract.
21. Texas Rangers [78-84]
First Third: 25-29 [75]; Halfway: 37-44 [74]; Second Third: 27-27/52-56 [78.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 26-28 [78-84].
Prognosis: After (surprisingly) making it all the way to the World Series in 2023 and (even more suprisingly) winning it, Texas fell apart (or imploded) back to the middle of the pack in 2024. So the question is: where exactly is this team on the path to the playoffs? Are they still improving or are they actually declining? Much of the answer to this will simply be in the injury list. Will Corey Seager come back from his hernia? Will Jacob DeGrom ever contribute at all? Will Josh Jung bounce back? Was Evan Carter in 2023 a mirage? On top of all that, the pitching staff looks thin. Will they bulk it up before 2025? A good case can be made for the Texas Rangers 2025 season going either way. Youngblood: Texas rookie outfielder Wyatt Langford got somewhat lost in the shuffle with several other rookie outfielders having great 2024 campaigns (Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, Colton Cowser, and Wilyer Abreu). Their OPS+ tells the story: Merrill 127, Cowser 123, Chourio 117, Abreu 114, and Langford 111.* After the All-Star break, the OPS+ (unadjusted by park) were a bit different: Merrill 160, Cowser 126, Chourio 153, Abreu 115, and Langford 118. By these splits, Merrill and Chourio are the clear class of 2024’s rookie outfielders. However, Langford was the one rookie who hit for much more home run power as the season went on (1st half: 5 HR & 11 HR: 2nd half). With nothing other than an undeucated hunch, there seems a good chance that Langford hits more HRs in 2025 than any of his rookie compatriots. All that being said, the Sherrifs will probably overachieve in 2025 if some pitching develops. Jack Lieter and Kumar Rocker, the Texas Ranger’s lonely eyes turn to you.
*OPS+ is calculated by adding the player’s slugging percentage and on-base percentage together, adjusting it by park, and then dividing it by the League averages for those two statistics. A score of 100 equals League average and 110 would supposedly indicate the hitter was 10 percent better than League average. However, this statistic is apparently geometric. In other words, an OPS+ OF 110 means the hitter was actually 21 percent better than the League [110 squared = 121]. If it really is geometric, it would mean that Aaron Judge, with his OPS+ OF 200, is actually four times better than an average hitter.
22. Cincinnati Reds [77-85]
First Third: 24-30 [72]; Halfway: 38-43 [76]; Second Third: 28-26/52-56 [78.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 25-29 [77-85].
Prognosis: The Cincinnati Reds simmered but never boiled during 2024. But they made some progress anyways. Shortstop Elly De la Cruz took a big step towards superstardom. All Cruz needs to do now is control the strike zone a whole lot better to be one of the 4 or 5 best players in the game. Of course, this is easier said than done. Irregardless, Cruz may be the most incredibly gifted player in the Major Leagues today outside of Ohtani. And, even more importantly, he will be just 23 years old in 2025. In addition to Cuz, the Reds’ ace pitcher Hunter Greene also showed signs of stardom in 2024. But that comes with a sad caveat. Greene spent 6 weeks on the DL (Disabled List) in 2024 with a sprained elbow. This type of injury is often the precursor to an upcoming Tommy John Surgery. If Cruz and Greene can both stay healthy & continue to improve, the Redlegs may have their first real contender since 2012 and 2013. All the Cincinnati Reds’ front office has to do is effectively fill in around these stars. Youngblood: Reds’ Sophmore Starter Andrew Abbott seems to be on the verge of becoming a very nice #2 starter behind Greene. Nick Lodolo had an up and down year but flashed enormous potential. If these three pitchers can give the Reds 30-32 relatively good starts in 2025, the team will be primed to take off. The core of a really good team is here. If second baseman Matt McLain can come back all or most of the way from the shoulder injury that wiped out his entire 2024 season, the Crimson Tide may wash over the National League. McLain flashed superstar potential in 2023. Throw in a couple good trades and the Reds will be in business.*
*After writing this but before posting, the Reds traded excess 2B Jonathan India plus a fungible outfielder to Kansas City for starting pitcher Brady Singer. Even if it doesn’t work out, this is exactly the type of trade that Cincinnati should be making.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates [76-86]
First Third: 25-29 [75]; Halfway: 39-42 [78]; Second Third: 30-24/55-53 [82.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 21-33 [76-86].
Prognosis: In Baseball, it is hard to take a run at the top or even get into the playoffs unless your team has a resident superstar. In the beginning of the 2024 season, the Pirates had no superstar in residence. Like several other teams (the Cincinnati Reds with De Cruz and Greene, the Kansas City Royals with Witt, and the Washington Nationals with Wood and Crews), the Corsairs were waiting and hoping that their savior would arrive and lead them to the promised land. For the Reds, Hunter and especially Cruz took steps toward becoming superstars in 2024. For the Royals, Witt went almost supernova & led them to the playoffs in 2024. For the Nats, Wood and Crews established themselves in the Major Leagues in 2024. But, for the Pirates, their lack of a superstar was remedied the minute pitcher Paul Skenes stepped onto the field in 2024 after spending his first six weeks in the Minors. The Privateers now just need to sign or develop some decent players to support their ace (providing his arm holds up). Youngblood: Of course, it could be disputed that Paul Skenes was really a superstar in 2024. Skenes arrived to play his first game on May 11th, 2024. It was the Pirates 40th game of the season. In the 3/4 of the season that remained, Skenes put up 5.9 WAR* (Wins Above Replacement). If Skenes had played the whole season and produced at the same rate, he would have compiled about 8.0 WAR in 2024. This stat would have made Skenes the 5th or 6th best basebll player in the Major Leagues for 2024. If that’s not a superstar, what is? In 2024, Skenes’ debut actually pushed the Pirates into the fringes of the NL Pennant Race for a little while. With a whole season of Skenes in 2025 and some more players percolating, the Pirates may end up in the middle of the pennant scrum in 2025.
*The 5.9 WAR measurement is from Baseball Reference’s measurement. The Fangraph website figured Paul Skenes’ WAR as 4.3. Quite frankly, Frangraphs seems way off base with many of their pitching WARs.
24. Toronto Blue Jays [74-88]
First Third: 25-29 [75]; Halfway: 37-44 [74]; Second Third: 25-29/50-58 [75.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 24-30 [74-88].
Prognosis: The Toronto Blue Jays went into the 2024 season believing that they were approaching the top of a success cycle. After three straight losing seasons from 2017 to 2019, the Bluebirds edged back over .500 in 2020. This was followed by three straight 90 or so winning seasons (2021-2023: 91, 92, & 89). But they were elimanted in the wild card play-offs in 2020, 2022 & 2023. Toronto was lead by two nepobaby stars who were coming into their primes (Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Junior). In an effort to go all out in 2024, the team even made a doomed effort to sign Shohei Ohtani. Thus, it probably was a shock to the system when the Bluebirds staggered through 2024 like a high-performance car with four flat tires. It appears now that the 2020-2023 success cycle may have already crested. In fact, Toronto seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place. Both Bichette and Guerrero Jr. will be free agents after the 2025 season. Neither seems likely to resign. The question for the Bluebirds going into 2025 will be: should the Jays attempt to roll the play-off dice 1 more time or tear down and rebuild? Youngblood: For fans of bad body players, Alejandro Kirk of the Blue Jays has to be a favorite. Listed as 5 foot 8 eight inches tall and a generous 245 pounds give or take a Fred Flintstone steak, Kirk is following in the footsteps of the unforgetable John Kruk (His autobiography title: I ain’t an Athlete, Lady, I’m a Baseball Player). Unfortunately, after starting out his career with a pretty potent bat, Kirk has been a sub-average hitter for two straight years. If the Bluebirds do decide to rebuild, they may want to tell Kirk to forget about being a catcher, place him on first base after trading Guerrero, and tell him to just concentrate on bashing the ball. In 2024, Kirk will be 26-years-old. If they want to maximize his value, they may not want to go down the Earl Williams path.*
*Earl Williams was an defensively challenged but offensively gifted catcher from 1970-1977. As a rookie in 1970, he crushed 33 HR with 87 RBI (.260 BA). Then he career spiraled down the drain due to psychological problems. Of course, one of these problems was that he didn’t want to be a catcher.
25. Washington Nationals [71-91]
First Third: 25-29 [75]; Halfway: 38-43 [76]; Second Third: 24-30/49-59 [73.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 22-32 [71-91].
Prognosis: The Nats are finally coming out of their long stay on the bottom of the standings after winning the 2019 World Championship. It would be fascinating if they were able to resign Juan Soto this coming off-season to cap off their rebuild. But their trade of Soto to the San Diego Padres in 2022 for 6 players (5 prospects) will still be written down in the history of good trades. While 2 of those prospects have not ripened into anything yet, the next Nat contender will probably feature C.J, Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood as stars. If even just 2 of them reach their potential, the Nats will still have won the trade. Youngbood: In 2024, the Nats called up Dylan Crews, who they selected #2 in the 2023 Draft. Physically, he reminds one of Bobby Witt Junior. In other words, he looks good. But the most interesting Nats’ rookie is the 21 year old and 6-feet 7-inch left-fielder James Wood. He has been compared (with a straight face) to both Darryl Strawberry and Ted Williams. However, there is one main difference between Woods and those two ferocious hitters. Both of those men were basically pull hitters. Woods currently seems to hit most everything to the opposite field. How good will James Woods be if he learns to pull the ball? Woods’ downside is probably a Jason Heywood type career. His upside is obviously sky high. Without any bad luck, the Nationals will probably have (at least) two future superstars now to build their team around. The year 2025 may see their 1st baby steps back on the pennant path.
26. Oakland Athletics [69-93]
First Third: 22-32 [66]; Halfway: 29-52 [58]; Second Third: 22-32/44-64 [66.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 25-29 [69-93].
Prognosis: Despite the entire future of the franchise being up in the air, the Athletics are making progress towards their next good team. Unfortunately for Oakland A’s fans, that team will probably be named the Las Vegas A’s or, if the rebuild is quick, maybe even the Sacramento A’s (or perhaps they will rebrand the team and turn into the Las Vegas Nights or Gamblers or some such thing). In any case, it looks like the 2023 season was the low point for this team. Youngblood: The A’s have some interesting players. Brent Rooker is one hell of a clean-up hitter (though why it took him until 28 to establish himself is strange). Catcher Shea Langeliers, center fielder J.J. Bleday, and second baseman Zack Gelof give the A’s middle-of-the-diamond strength. Right fielder Lawrence Butler, who broke out in 2024, gave them another good player. This team can really hit for a bottom dweller. Of course, the best Oakland story in 2024 was Mason Miller, a 103-105 mph flamethrower relief pitcher. All season, the smart money (i.e. talking head sportswriters) had been saying that the Oakland A’s should trade Miller before his elbow implodes. But what if it never does and the ligaments hold? There is a relief player with a supersonic fastball who has held up now for 15 whole years. Why can’t Mason Miller be the next Aroldis Chapman? Of course, that is a more-or-less best case scenario.
27. Los Angeles Angels [63-99]
First Third: 21-33 [63]; Halfway: 35-46 [70]; Second Third: 26-28/47-61 [70.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 16-38 [63-99].
Prognosis: The Angels may be incompetently owned and incomprehensibly managed; Shohei Ohtani is gone and the cursed second-half career of Mike Trout continues; but this team stills does some fascinating stuff. They are like a lab for half-baked ideas. Collect every first draft reclamation project that we can get our hands on? OK. Draft only pitchers one year? Let’s do it. Look to immediately promote draft picks to the Majors? Why not? Hire a well-regarded Baseball lifer as our manager despite the fact that he lost his previous managerial career to drug scandal over a decade ago? What could go wrong? Of course, half-baked ideas have a tendency to blow up in your face. The admirable, but also completely nuts, decision to go all in to win during Ohtani’s last year in 2023 should haunt this organization for the next 4 or 5 years. But you never know. Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than smart. Youngblood: The Angels have a number of building blocks despite getting nothing back for Ohtani. Zack Neto [SS] and Logan O’Hoppe [C] are building blocks for the future. Nolan Schanuel [1B] could turn into a good player. Although less likely, Jo Adell [RF] may realize his promise too. They may be able to turn some of their remaining veterans into valuable pieces. However, like their West Coast neighbor above (Oakland A’s), perhaps their most interesting player is a 105 mph flamethrowing reliever. Ben Joyce, like Mason Miller, is probably going to blow out his elbow out sometime soon. Should he be traded before this happens or should they keep him on the off chance that his arm can hold up too? The answer may be: they should definitely trade him. The Dodgers collect guys like this.
28. Miami Marlins [62-100]
First Third: 19-35 [57]; Halfway: 29-52 [58]; Second Third: 21-23/40-68 [60.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 22-32 [62-100].
Prognosis: Unlike the two teams below them (Colorado and the White Sox), there is a slim chance that the Marlins will improve in the near future. Their new GM, Peter Bendix, has a Tampa Bay front-office pedigree. And perhaps he is the right man for the Miami job. However, just because you come from a highly regarded organization, it doesn’t mean that you will be competent all on your own. So far, his actions as the Miami GM seem to be impetuous. He has basically burned the Miami front office down to the ground. Maybe it needed it. But wouldn’t it have been more prudent to simply prune? Keep the good and discard the non-functional? Only time will tell. Youngblood: Connor Norby and Xavier Edwards, the Marlins rookie 2B & SS, have shown the talent to be a good keystone combination going forward. But, if the Fish are to make a quick return to respectability, both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez will have to return and once again be front line starters. Of course, this is easier said then done. Some organizations, because of the inherent injury risk of pitching talent, have concentrated on acquiring mostly batting talent in the draft (notably the Boston Red Sox). Apparently, these teams believe that they can simply acquire pitching later by trade or free agency. But the Swordfish don’t have that option here. They will be done or undone by their pitching talent for the near future. Will the curse of Jose Fernandez continue to haunt them? Or perhaps the curse of Kim Ng, their competent 2023 GM who was thrown off the Marlin bus by Bendix without even a nice gift basket.
29. Colorado Rockies [61-101]
First Third: 19-35 [57]; Halfway: 27-54 [54]; Second Third: 19-35/38-70 [57.0]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 23-31 [61-101].
Prognosis: If it wasn’t for the pitiful Pale Hose Sox (see below), the Rockies would be, hands down, the Major League’s most pathetic team. However, they still are the most boring team in the Majors. The White Sox have the excitement of chasing records for futility and losing epically. The Rockies have basically nothing. The team’s ownership and it’s front office seem to be either incompetent or detached (perhaps they are just stoned). Every move they make seems to lack reason or motive. Youngblood: By bWAR, the Rockies’ two best players in 2024 were a pair of sophmores, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar. Doyle epitomizes the Colorado conundrum. He hit 23 HR-72 RBI-.260 BA in 2024. He also hit 12 HRs at home and 11 HRs on the road. But he had a .313 BA at home with a woeful .211 BA away from his Colorado condo. On the other hand, Tovar hit almost as well on the road as he did at home in 2024 [overall he hit 26 HR-78 RBI-.269 BA with a 13 HR-36 RBI-.261 BA line on the road]. If you were trading with Colorado, would it be a good idea to trade for the player who hits better at ground zero than up a mile high? Of course, Tovar is also just 23 while Doyle is already 26. Tovar is obviously more valuable. There is a chance that, at his peak in Colorado, he may put up some 30 HR-100 RBI-.300 or so BA seasons. In any case, neither player looks like a potential superstar. The Rockies do have the remains of a superstar on their roster. But is there even a slim chance that Kris Bryant ever returns to a semblance of his former form? The Rockies have 4 more seasons (2025-2028) to find out. It is doubtful that the wreck of the Rockies will post a wining record in any of them.
30. Chicago White Sox [41-121]
First Third: 15-39 [45]; Halfway: 21-60 [42]; Second Third: 12-42/27-81 [40.5]; Stretch Run/Final Third: 14-40 [41-121].
Prognosis: It seems like this team hasn’t even begun to formulate the first year of a five-year rebuilding plan to reach mediocrity. You have to assume that the White Sox cannot be worse than this in 2025. But the evidence for an actual turnaround is scarce. From all reports, the Pale Hose are trying to unload all their remaining assets. Even worse, the Major League Baseball ecosystem no longer rewards quite so handsomely the strategy of tanking your team to acquire high level draft picks. The Sox may be approximately this bad for some time, even if they don’t get back down to 121 losses again. Youngblood: Although the bottom completely fell out on the Pale Hose in 2024, they just kept running their veteran players out there anyways. Why they didn’t trade everyone (and throw in the kitchen sink too) is a mystery. They should have filled the roster with guys acquired in trades, reclamation projects, and rookies.* Instead, the Pale Sox decided that riding this Titanic down to the bottom of the sea with its current crew was a good idea. They did throw their doomed manager Pedro Grifol overboard; and replaced him with Grady Sizemore, a skipper with virtually no qualifications other than he had once been a Major League player. To underline the pointlessness of this move, they announced that they would not be considering Sizemore for the job in 2025, come hell or high water. The only really interesting player left here is the Sox’ flamethrower starting pitcher Garrett Crochett. But all that interest really comes down to two Questions: 1) What will the White Sox get for him in trade; and/or 2) Will his arm blow out again before he gets traded (Crochett had Tommy John Surgery in 2022). In all probability, the Useless Hose will keep Crochett until he is all but worthless (at which point, the Los Angeles Dodgers will pick him up and attempt to fix him. Unless you are a masochist, it must be terrible to root for the Chicago White Sox right now.
*The White Sox probably need to have a Spring Training in 2025 like the one shown in the first Major League movie. Though it is doubful that they would come up with anyone quite as good as Willie Mays Hayes, Rick Vaughn, or Pedro Cerrano for real. But it certainly would be fun.
The Success Cycle:
A. Mountain Top
1) Atlanta Braves, 2) Baltimore Orioles 3) Los Angeles Dodgers, 4) New York Yankees, 5) New York Mets (as long as they sign Soto) and 6) Philadelphia Phillies.
Teams that are on the top of the success cycle with no plans to come down. There seems to have been a shift during this Century between the Baseball franchises haves and have nots. Some teams are now able to stay on top of the standings almost permanently. For example, the Los Angeles Dodgers have had 14 straight winning seasons [2011-2014] and only 2 losing seasons this Century [2000-2024].
B. Slippery Slope
1) Boston Red Sox, 2) Chicago Cubs, 3) Cleveland Guardians, 4) Milwaukee Brewers, 5) San Francisco Giants, and 6) Seattle Mariners.
Teams trying to contend on a hope and a prayer that everything goes right and nothing goes wrong. The common denominator between these teams is an aversion or inability to spend enough money to ascend the mountain top. They are all average to good teams that, unless all goes right, are just not good enough. The San Francisco Giants get special mention as a team that has tried to actually spend the money but not found anyone willing to take it.
C. Glory Road
1) Arizona Diamondbacks, 2) Cincinnati Reds, 3) Detroit Tigers, 4) Kansas City Royals, 5) Pittsburgh Pirates, and 6) Texas Rangers.
Teams that are preparing to make a Championship run by bulking up their rosters through trades or free agency. One thing that almost these teams have in common is a resident young superstar or superstar-to-be: Arizona (Carroll), Cincinnati (De la Cruz), Tigers (Skubal), Royals (Witt), and Pirates (Skenes). The Rangers are slightly different as they have 3 resident players who were once, and might be again, of superstar caliber (Seager, DeGrom & Semien).
D. Downward Spiral
1) Houston Astros, 2) Milwaukee Brewers, 3) Minnesota Twins, 4) St. Louis Cardinals, 5) Tampa Bay Rays, and 6) Toronto Blue Jays.
Teams that baseball gravity is trying to pull down into the sun where they will burn up or out. Each has a slightly different slant to their problems with staying afloat: Astros (age), Brewers (luck), Twins (constant injuries), Cardinals (organizational rigidity), Rays (personnel problems), and the Blue Jays (impending free agents).
E. Ocean Bottom
1) Chicago White Sox, 2) Colorado Rockies, 3) Los Angeles Angels, 4) Miami Marlins, 5) Oakland [Sacramento/Las Vegas] Athletics [?] and 6) Washington Nationals.
Teams that will not be contending any time soon. Some of these teams are showing signs of life (Oakland and Washington). Some are thrashing around like a gasping fish on land (LA Angels and Miami). Some are just dead on the ground after drowning in a 1-inch-deep pool of water (Chicago & Colorado).
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