Post #45

2024 Year in Review

It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men – Frederick Douglass

Started: December 31, 2024/Finished: January 20, 2025

Introduction

There were many interesting and important Baseball storylines in 2024. The Los Angeles Dodgers perhaps started the next great Baseball Dynasty. Aaron Judge had his greatest regular season yet. Shohei Ohtani was cheated by his interpreter, got married, became the first player to hit both 50 Home Runs & steal 50 bases in a single season, and answered the question of what would happen if he just concentrated on hitting. The Oakland A’s played their last home game by the San Francisco Bay before leaving for Sacramento on the way to possibly Las Vegas. In an odd coincidence, the Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson, an Oakland native and veteran Oakland A’s player, prematurely passed away at the age of just 64 on December 20, 2024 (just 5 days short of his 65th birthday on Xmas Day). His death seemed to be a sad coda to Major League Baseball in the Oakland area. But Henderson, at his peak one of the greatest players that I’ve ever seen (perhaps the greatest), was not the best Baseball player to pass away during 2024. That player was Willie Mays (with all due respect to the late great Pete Rose too). Mays died on June 18, 2024. In the crudest of analogies, Willie Mays is what you get if Rickey Henderson stole 1000 or so less bases but crushed 70 or so more triples plus 400 or so more home runs and also played a gold glove centerfield. Most importantly, the departure of Willie Mays truly marks the end of an era. He was the last surviving Hall of Famer (or even great player) from the Negro Leagues. With Mays gone, the story of those Negro Leagues is no longer a living breathing thing. With Willie Mays gone, the old Negro Leagues are now passing from history into legend and myth. In my mind (and perhaps only my mind), this was the most important Baseball story of the year 2024.

Willie Mays and his Father

The life story of Willie Mays is now complete. It has a beginning, a plateau of greatness, and a long and dignified path to the end. In the media, many articles were written memorializing this life. To this, there is little to add. He apparently lived a good and worthwhile life. Of course, as time flows by and the sadness of his passing recedes, these stories will concentrate more and more on aspects of his time on earth and especially his skill at playing the game of Baseball. Personally, I have always been fascinated by the career paths of Baseball players. What forces shape these careers? Why did their skills improve or regress? What influence did their psychology, unfortunate injuries, or outside forces (such as racism or military service) have on their careers? In the case of Willie Mays, the biggest influence on his career was his father, Willie Mays, Sr (also known as Kat or Kitty Kat). Kat Mays played Baseball too. Like his son, he was apparently a great center fielder. He also played for many years in the Birmingham Industrial Leagues that supplied numerous players to the Negro Leagues. Most importantly, Kat Mays lived out his baseball dreams through his son. Apparently, after his mother left the household, Willie Mays Jr. was raised pretty much entirely by his father. There are stories that Kat Mays rolled baseballs to his infant son before the little Mays could even walk. As an adult, Willie Mays Jr. would talk openly of his love and admiration for his father; and this love and admiration would have a very direct impact on the Baseball career of Willie Mays. Of course, many baseball players get involved with Baseball through their fathers. But this influence is not always a positive or even benign. In a very real sense, both the life and Baseball career of Willie Mays Jr. was a testimonial to how he was raised by his father.

The traditional career arc of a good Major League Baseball player would be one in which they improve until age 26, peak from 26 to 30, and then slowly lose the battle against age from 31 to retirement. But, when you look at the career of Willie Mays, this aging progression is turned somewhat sideways. Willie Mays debuted in the Majors in 1951 at the very young age of 20. After playing briefly early in 1952, he spent the rest of the 1952 season and all of the 1953 season in the U.S. Army (where he continued to basically just play Baseball). Back from the Army, Mays was unstoppable in 1954 (41 HRs with a .345 BA) and 1955 (51 homers with 127 RBIs). If his career had just followed a normal progression, he would have peaked from ages 25 to 30 (1956 to 1961) with probably something like a run of 45-50+ home runs, 125-140+ RBI, and a .325 to .345+ or so BA seasons. Of course, that’s not what happened. From 1956 to 1961, Mays averaged 33.8 HRs (low of 29 twice & high of 40 in 1961) and 101.2 RBIs (low of 84 & high of 123 in 1961). Then, from 1962 to 1965 (his age 31 to 34 seasons), Willie Mays slugged an average of 46.5 homers (with a career high of 52) & drove in 116.8 RBIs per year (including a career high of 141). Of course, the National League did expand in 1962. But other players were certainly not effected to this extent. If there was an effect, it quickly washed away. But Mays kept getting better. By our modern analytics, Willie Mays had his greatest season at the advanced age of 34 in 1965. In other words, the career path of Willie Mays is a very high early peak at 23 and 24 (1954-55), followed by a long high pass up to a later and higher peak again when he was 31 to 34 (1962-65). His career then wound down through lesser crests and valleys from 35 to 42 (1966-1973). The question remains: “Why did the career path of Willie Mays follow this odd arc?” I believe it was because of his psychology.

When Willie Mays debuted at the age of 20 in 1951, his manager was the Hall of Famer Leo Durocher. Of course, Durocher is famous for reportedly saying: “Nice guys finish last.” Durocher was manipulative and narcissistic. He was also tempermental and combative, such a vicious bench jockey that he was nicknamed: “The Lip.” Basically, he was an asshole (or close to being one at any given moment). But Durocher was also a great manager and knew how to handle men. With Mays, he was always incredibly supportive. Intuitively, he seemed to realize that Willie Mays would respond best to a paternal type relationship. So Leo Durocher treated Mays like his favorite son. He praised him. He favored him. Willie Mays would refer to Durocher as “Mister Leo” for many years. Willie Mays played his heart out for Leo Durocher. In 1954 and 1955, Mays was an absolute monster for Durocher. Of course, Durocher had other people who weren’t quite so fond of him. After the New York Giants’ World Championship season in 1954, they slid to 80-74 in 1955 and Durocher was fired. The new manager of the Giants in 1956 was William “Bill” Rigney, a former Giant infielder. If Rigney was a good manager, very little evidence survives. But he was apparently especially atrocious in 1956 and 1957 when his club finished 67-87 and then 69-85. Upon taking over the Giants in 1956, Rigney announced that every player would be treated the exact same. There would be no more special favors for anyone. In other words, he specifically targeted his best player, Willie Mays. It is perhaps unnecessary to point out that a good manager figures out what his subordinates need, not what he himself wants. Bill Rigney managed the Giants from 1956 until his deserved firing early in 1960. Despite being right in his prime, Willie Mays was never the player for Bill Rigney that he was for Durocher. Durocher had treated Willie Mays as Mays own father would have. Rigney treated Willie Mays like he was just another player. The results were predictable.

In 1961, Rigney was replaced with Alvin Dark, another former Giant infielder. Dark took a very different approach with Mays. Dark simply made sure that Mays knew that he was the most important player on the club. In 1964, he would even make Mays the team captain of the Giants. Mays responded to Dark’s treatment of him by returning to his 1954-1955 form (and eventually surpassing it). Unfortunately, Dark quickly ran into his own problems as the team’s manager. Dark could not seem to get along with Giant first baseman Orlando Cepeda. There were rumblings that Dark was bigoted against Black and Latin players. The Long Island newspaper Newsday eventually quoted Dark supposedly denigrating non-White players. Dark would claim that he was misquoted. Interestingly, both Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson came to his defense. It wasn’t enough to save him and Dark was fired after the 1964 season ended. Dark was replaced by a Durocher protoge, Herman Franks, under whom Willie Mays had his greatest year in 1965 before time washed away his skills. I believe that these three men (Durocher, Rigney, and Dark) shaped Willie Mays’ career to a large degree. Willie Mays entered the Major Leagues as his father’s boy. Under Durocher, Willie Mays was the prodigal son from 1951 to 1955 (ascending to a spectacular peak in 1954-1955). Under Rigney, Willie Mays was just another cog in the machine from 1956 to 1960. Mays had played for Durocher with fire and joy. Rigney, for reasons unclear, stomped that out.* Mays matured but lost his Baseball innocence. Finally, under Dark from 1961 to 1964, Willie Mays got back the mojo that Rigney had taken away from him. From 1962 to 1965, the Baseball World got to see how the basically fully-developed Willie Mays played. But a fascinating question lingers. What if the transition from prodigal son to seasoned superstar had been handled differently? What if Bill Rigney had never been hired?

*In 1974-75, Alvin Dark would manage the Oakland Athletics. In mid-1974, the A’s third baseman Sal Bando, upset with Dark after a loss, would utter the famous line: “He couldn’t manage a meat market.” The A’s would go on to win the 1974 World Championship anyways. But the quote actually describes Bill Rigney well. Apparently, as far as Baseball goes, Rigney couldn’t tell the difference between filet mignon and shoe leather.

Willie Mays and his Contemporaries

In the 1950s and into the 1960s, the four most supremely talented Baseball players were: Henry Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, and Willie Mays. With an interestng symmetry, two were Black Americans and two were White Americans. Two were direct rivals as possibly the greatest center fielders of all time (Mantle and Mays). The other two were both teammates and superb home run hitters (Aaron and Mathews). Oddly enough, a good argument can be made that both White players were actually more talented than the two Black players. But it is indisputable that the Black players had much greater overall Baseball careers than their White contemporaries. If you accept the assertion that Mantle was a more gifted centerfielder than Willie Mays and Mathews was a more gifted home run hitter than Henry Aaron, the obvious follow-up question would be: why didn’t the White guys have better careers than the Black guys? The answer is basically that Mantle and Mathews did not have the physical or mental fortitude of either Mays and Aaron. Eddie Mathews, who was basically two years older than Aaron, came up to Major Leagues in 1952 at the age of 20 and had a fine rookie year. Ted Williams, possibly the greatest hitter ever, complimented Mathews on his beautiful swing. Mathews then erupted from 1953 to 1955, hitting 40 or more home runs each year and slugging over .600 each season. But those three years, from age 21 to 23, were his peak. In a normal career progression, Mathews would have had some monster 50+ home runs, 135+ RBIs, 120+ walks and .300+ batting average seasons centered around 1958-1963. It didn’t happen. Mathews did approach his early peak again in 1959 and 1960 but most of his career after his early peak was spent slowly watching his talent drain away. Still, when he turned 30 years old, Eddie Mathews had hit 370 career home runs. When he turned 30, Henry Aaron, who also started his career as a 20-year-old rookie, was at 343 career home runs.

After he turned 30, Eddie Mathews had only 142 more home runs left in the tank. Back problems hobbled him. In 1967, the 35-year-old Mathews played 137 games but hit only 16 bombs. By 1968, Mathews wasn’t even a regular & played just 31 games and got only 57 at bats. He finished the season despite having a spinal disc removed on July 5; but his career was over. After Aaron celebrated his 30th birthday, he kicked on the overdrive and hit another 412 more homers to break Babe Ruth’s career record of 714. Aaron finished with 755 against Mathew’s lowly 512. But it wasn’t lack of talent on Mathew’s part that led to this discrepancy. Mathews was an interesting person. He drank heavily and would certainly be considered an alcoholic today. He could be hostile and angry and wasn’t opposed to fisticuffs. He was certainly tough, probably too tough for his own good. It wasn’t much of a surprise that his career flamed out earlier than it probably should have. On the other hand, Henry Aaron was an even-tempered, dedicated, family man. He approached his career with a tenacious workman-like mentality. It is hardly surprising that Aaron would last in the Major Leagues until he was 42 years old. Willie Mays also lasted until he was 42, but one gets the impression that he lasted a little bit more on talent than tenacity. And then there was Mickey Mantle. When he was young, Mantle was awe-inspiringly fast. Unless there is some type of racist bias complicating matters, the opinion at that time was that Mantle was even faster than Mays. Mantle was also considered to have light tower power. He was certainly considered to have more power than Mays and even Mathews too. On top of all this, Mantle switch hit. Basically, as a rookie, he was a faster stronger switch-hitting version of Willie Mays. But, like Mathews, Mantle would develop a serious problem with alcohol. He was not as belligerant a person as Mathews. But Mantle was apparently such a heavy drinker that he made Mathews seem sober in comparison. Mantle was, in his own way, just as physically tough as Mathews. His entire career was basically one long injury, many of them self-inflicted.

If these four players all came up today and were ranked by talent, the order would probably be: Mantle, Mays, Mathews and Aaron. If they were ranked by power potential, the order would probably be: Mantle, Mathews, Mays & Aaron. But, if you did psychological tests and ordered them by temperment, the order would probably be: Aaron, Mays, Mathews and then Mantle. All in all, the best of these four players was almost surely Willie Mays. He wasn’t as supremely gifted as Mantle, although Mays seems to have been a greater defensive player. Of course, Mantle probably never even came close to his peak potential. In 1951, his very first season, Mantle badly injured his knee and played his entire career partially hobbled. Mays did not have the raw power of either Mantle or Mathews, but Mays probably reached more of his hitting potential than either of them. Mathews never reached his peak at all and Mickey Mantle, as Ted Williams pointed out, spent his entire career swinging as hard as he could rather than as productively as he might have. Mays had a first-class temperment but was probably a little bit more of a primadonna than Henry Aaron. However it’s very close. Willie Mays grew up being the apple of his father’s eye. Due to this, Willie Mays could act a little spoiled at times. Henry Aaron probably never gave anyone anywhere the impression that he was an enfant terrible. He seemed to always want to be the most mature person in the room. But Willie Mays certainly had one thing that outshined all three of his contemporaries. Willie Mays played the game of Baseball with more joy than any of them. This was almost certainly a gift from his father, Willie Mays, Sr. It is also why Willie Mays was, overall, the best Baseball player of his generation.

Willie Mays and Henry Aaron

Traditional Baseball Statistics have been used to make a basic argument that Henry Aaron was a greater player than Willie Mays. The two men each played 23 seasons and were almost direct contemporaries (Mays 1951-1973 and Aaron 1954-1976). Aaron pounded out 755 home runs during his career; Mays hit only 660 bombs. Aaron scored 2174 runs and batted in 2297 during his career; Mays scored 2068 runs and drove in only 1909. Aaron collected 3771 hits and batted .305 during his career; Mays punched out only 3293 hits and batted just .301. In his 1960 book The Long Season, pitcher Jim Brosnan wrote that he thought Aaron was the better hitter & slightly harder to pitch to than Mays. The counter argument would be to state that, even if this was true, Mays was a better overall player because he was a center fielder while Aaron played mostly left field. But, using Modern Baseball Analysis, there is no argument at all. According to the current modern stat of last resort (WAR aka Wins Above Replacement), Willie Mays was so much better than Henry Aaron that there is no contest. Mays is credited with 156.2 career WAR while Aaron had only 143.1 WAR during his lifetime. Aaron’s career high in WAR for just one single season was 9.4 in 1961. Mays is credited with seven seasons of more than 9.4 WAR with six seasons greater than 10.0 WAR and a peak of 11.2 WAR in 1965. Then, when one remembers that 1) Willie Mays lost about 270 games to Military Service in 1952 and 1953 and 2) Henry Aaron got to pad his statistics some by using the designated hitter rule in both 1975 and 1976, there really is no Modern Statistical contest at all. If he had never served in Military at all, Willie Mays would have almost surely ended his career with over 170 WAR. Mays’s career WAR total would be closer to that of Babe Ruth than Henry Aaron.

Of course, one of the great joys of Baseball Statistics is that they can be endlessly manipulated. In 1951, Willie Mays burst into the Major Leagues. Only 20-years-old, he played 121 games, hit 20 home runs, and batted for a credible .274 average. In 1952, Mays played just 34 games. He hit only .236 with just 4 home runs (but also 4 triples) before his induction into the U.S. Army. In other words, Willie Mays played a full season schedule in 1951 and 1952 (155 games). In 1954, Willie Mays returned from the Army and became a superstar (151 games, 41 HRs, 110 RBIs, and a .345 BA). You can simply add Willie Mays 1951 and 1954 seasons back into his career stats to see what he probably would have accomplished without serving in the Military. If you make Mays 1952 season two-thirds 1951 & 1952 and one-third 1954, Willie Mays blasts 30 homers, bats in 97 runs, and hits for a .292 average in 1952. Then, if you make Mays 1953 season one-third 1951 & 1952 and two-thirds 1954, Willie Mays crunchs 35 homers, bats in 104 runs, and hits .317 or so. More interestingly, Mays career totals become much more comparable to Henry Aaron’s stat line: G-[Mays] 3277, Aaron 3298; PA-[M] 13710, [A] 13941; AB-[M] 11953, [A] 12364; R-[M] 2246, [A] 21274; H-[M] 3615, [A] 3771; 2B-[M] 580, [A] 624; 3B-[M] 159, [A] 98; HR-[M] 721, [A] 755; RBI-[M] 2087, [A] 2297; BA-[M] .302, [A] .305; SA-[M] .559, [A] .555; SB-[M] 354, [A] 240; BB-[M] 1591, [A] 1402; SO-[M] 1643, [A] 1381; and TB[M]-6676; [A] 6856. Their career statistics are very comparable. It seems to be true that Aaron was a slighter better pure hitter than Mays, but it was incredibly slight indeed. Willie was obviously faster than Aaron. When you add in the fact that Mays was a significantly greater defensive player than Aaron, the question of which was player was the better man becomes obvious. But the most interesting thing about this exercise is the fact that it becomes very obvious that Willie Mays, not Aaron, would have been the 1st man to break Babe Ruth’s career home run record. The implications of that are historically mind-boggling.

Willie Mays and Babe Ruth

When who the greatest hitter in Baseball history is analyzed, it commonly starts with the 3 usual suspects: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds (Josh Gibson should also be included with this trio, making it a quartet, but that is an entirely different argument). Willie Mays & Hank Aaron are usually not included in this debate although they are included in any conversation about the greatest player overall. The great difference between the big trio (Ruth, Williams, and Bonds) and the dynamic duo of Mays and Aaron is just one of pitch selectivity. The Big Three received tons of bases on balls while they searched for a ball to crush. Mays and Aaron preferred to hit their way on base rather than walk on down. Per 162 games, Ruth averaged 133 walks with a high of 168; Williams averaged 143 with a top mark of 162 twice; and Bonds averaged an inflated 139 with an insane steroid-fueled & record peak of 232 in 2004.* On the other hand, neither Henry Aaron or Willie Mays, with one exception, ever received 100 or more base on balls (or strikeouts) in a single season. Per 162 games, Aaron received just 69 bases on balls during his career and Willie Mays did slightly better with an average of 79. In 1972, the 38-year-old Aaron had his career high of 92 walks (his career strikeout peak was 97 in 1967). Except for one strange season, Mays had career highs of just 82 walks and 92 strikeouts. However, the 40-year-old Mays took 112 bases on balls and struck out 123 times in 1971. In other words, he did not put the ball in play 235 times that year (his second highest mark was 169 in 1970 and his third highest mark was 163 in 1962). Even stranger, Willie Mays set this career high while playing much less than usual. In 1971, Mays had 537 plate appearances. At his peak from 1954 to 1965, he averaged 662 plate appearances per year with a high of 706. If Mays had walked at his 1971 rate over 706 PAs, he would have walked about 147 times. Why is this oddity not discussed more?

*The great difference between Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle, other than the fact that Mantle was a switch-hitter, was also one of pitch selection. Mantle averaged 117 walks (and 115 strikeouts) per 162 games.

In fact, as far as can be determined, this late career bout of extreme pitch selectivity by Willie Mays has not been discussed anywhere. But his 1971 season stands out like a sore thumb. To be totally fair, this was not truly a single season phenomenon. In 1967, Willie Mays walked just 51 times in his 544 PAs, a low rate for him. In 1968, he walked 67 times in 573 PAs, a normal rate in the context of his career. Then, in 1969, Mays walked only 49 times in 459 PAs, once again a low rate. However, in 1970, the 39-year-old Mays began to be more selective. He walked 79 times and struck out 90 times in 566 PAs. Of course, in 1971, his selectivity went through the roof. But that was not the end, Mays late career selectivity did continue for one more year. In 1972, the 41-year-old Mays was playing just part-time, got traded by the San Francisco Giants to the New York Mets at the beginning of the season, but his end of career pitch selectivity continued. In just 309 plate appearances, Willie Mays walked 60 times (with only 48 strike outs). Of course, this is very interesting in the context of Willie Mays’ career; but what does it mean? It would seem to mean that Willie Mays could have exercised pitch selectivity comparable to that of Ruth, Williams, and/or Bonds when he was young if he had simply tried. In a sense, every Baseball player’s career is a series of choices. Does the player commit to working out and staying healthy every year? Does the player abstain from alcohol and other temptations? Does the player obsess over getting better or simply let his talent carry him? Does the player truly love to play Baseball or is it just a job? Mays could have probably been as selective as the greatest hitters. Instead, Willie Mays chose to play for most of his career with the joy that comes from doing something you love. He did not sweat the small stuff. You cannot fault him for that.

Conclusion

Eddie Mathews was born to be a ballplayer. His father, Edwin Mathews Sr., played semi-pro ball and his mother, Eloise, reportedly used to pitch to him while his father shagged fly balls. Reportedly Mathews learned to pull the ball because his mother would make him do extra chores if he hit the ball at her. Mathews had a rough and tumble upbringing and lived a rough and tough life. Henry Aaron was born to be a ballplayer too. His father, Herbert Aaron, played semi-pro ball and taught his son that life was hard. Despite his incredible gifts, Aaron played the game with very little outward passion. Mickey Mantle was born to be a ballplayer. His father, Elvin Mantle, pitched semi-pro ball and poured his thwarted dreams into his eldest son. Mantle was even named after his father’s favorite player, the Hall of Fame catcher Mickey Cochrane. The pressure on Mickey Mantle to be great was immense and bordered on abuse. Willie Mays was also born to be a ballplayer. But you get the impression from reading his biographies and autobiographies that his father, Willie Mays Sr., would have been proud of his son no matter what profession that he followed. That his son, Willie Mays Jr., was one of the greatest ballplayers of all time was just more icing on the cake. All four of these players were talented enough to hit 700+ home runs during their careers. Aaron, with his career long workmanlike excellence, actually did it. Willie Mays would have made it to 700+ if not for losing almost two years to Military Service. It is also very likely that Mays would have hit in excess of 750 career home runs if the San Francisco Giants had never employed Bill Rigney as the manager from 1956 to 1960. If you could pick one of these four players lives to lead, it would have to be Willie Mays. His life was a testament to the power of being nurtured correctly. It is probably not a coincidence that Willie Mays outlived all his main contemporaries too.

Addendum #1

Oddly, while Willie Mays’ burst of plate selectivity in 1971 has been basically ignored, Babe Ruth also has an similar strange year of plate selectivity; but in the opposite direction. In 1919, Babe Ruth became a regular outfielder & he walked 101 times. From 1919 until 1934, Ruth would walk more than 101 times each and every season with three exceptions: 1922 [84 bases on balls in 110 games]; 1925 [59 walks in 98 games]; and 1929 [72 walks in 135 games]. In 1922, Ruth missed part of the season due to a suspension. In 1925, Ruth got sick with his reported bellyache and was basically down for the count all year long. But there has been absolutely no explanation for why George Herman Ruth drew only 72 walks in 135 games during the 1929 season. In 1928, Ruth recieved 137 walks. In 1931, he drew 136 walks in 145 games. Why did Ruth stop walking so much in 1929? One assumes that the Babe did it on purpose. Perhaps he wanted to see if he was a more effective hitter if he put the balls in play? Unfortunately, Ruth is gone and no one seems to have ever asked him what he was doing that year.