Post #6

The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Election, Part 4Golden Age Era Candidates #1 through 10

I am easily satisfied with the very best. Winston Churchill

December 5, 2022

After finishing an analysis of the 10 Early Baseball Era candidates for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame election, I will move on quickly to the 10 candidates that are being considered by the Hall’s Golden Age Era Baseball Committee. Very quickly because it appears that they will announce the new inductees tonight. These ten candidates, listed below in order of their career bWAR [wins above replacement total from Baseball Reference], are:

  1. Kenton (Ken) Boyer [1955-1969] 62.8
  2. Richard (Dick) Allen [1963-1977] 58.7
  3. Orestes (Minnie) Minoso [1949-1964] 53.8 [also 1946-48, 76, 80]
  4. Walter (Billy) Pierce [1945-1964] 53.4
  5. James (Jim) Kaat [1959-1983] 50.5
  6. Gilbert (Gil) Hodges [1943-1963] 43.9
  7. Pedro (Tony) Oliva [1962-1976] 43.0
  8. Maurice (Maury) Wills [1959-1972] 39.6
  9. Roger Maris [1956-1968] 38.3
  10. Daniel (Danny) Murtaugh [1941-1951] 6.6 [Manager: 1957-1976]

All 10 of these candidates have already had multiple chances to be elected. But, for whatever reasons, they have not been considered up to the standards required in the past. But, as many other commentators have already noted, the Baseball Hall of Fame standards for election have always been anything but standard. So the first question that must be considered is: “What exactly are the standards of the Hall of Fame?” Answering this question will hopefully provide the answer to the next question: “What should the standards be?” And, to be clear, when I mention the Baseball Hall of Fame standard, it is the absolute lowest common denominator, not the median. In other words, how bad can a player/pitcher be and still be worthy. To answer this question, I am going to assume that the Hall of Fame has always had a baseline standard of only electing the very best. So how shall we measure this?

My Baseball Hall of Fame Selection Formula

I am also going to assume that the Baseball Hall of Fame wants to reward accomplishment, not actual fame. In other words, merely being famous without the statistics to back it up is not enough. In one way, the Hall of Fame is already self-defining. To date (through the 2021 induction), the Hall of Fame has elected 333 people (332 men and 1 woman) to its ranks. Those people who are already elected fall into four different categories: 1) Players (including Pitchers), 2) Executives, 3) Managers, and 4) Umpires. So a basic answer to the question about the Hall of Fame standards would be: “Right before the 2022 induction, the standard is the best 333 baseball executives, managers, players and umpires of all time. But that doesn’t actually help us analyze the Baseball Hall of Fame cases of the 10 Players listed above. To do that properly, we need to eliminate categories two through four (executives, managers, and umpires) to get to the actual number of players and pitchers elected. But this is further complicated by the fact that a few executives and managers (no umpires) are also qualified as players.

Of the 333 people elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, there have been 264 players, 36 executives (also called pioneers in the beginning of the Hall), 23 managers, and 10 umpires. But 264 players is not the correct baseline either. The Hall of Fame has elected 29 players from the Negro Leagues. As we are trying to establish the Hall of Fame baseline for the traditional Major League players, the Negro League players must be (with all due respect) removed from consideration. That leaves 235 players and/or pitchers. In other words, a player (or pitcher) from the traditional Major Leagues should be at least the equal of or better than the 235th ranked player (including pitchers) in the history of the traditional Majors to be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame. If you use the bWAR statistic from Baseball Reference as a source, the 235th best player in Major League history would be a four-way-tie at 55.8 WAR [Wins Above Replacement] between Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio and Joe Gordon with non-Hall of Famers Bob Johnson and Jim Wynn. But this is still not the correct baseline for this evaluation.

In the top 235 players (by Baseball Reference bWAR) are a lot of players that need to be excluded to actually discover the 235th best player eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame. The exclusions fall under the following five categories: 1) Players who have qualified under one of the other categories [including the Negro Leaguers]; 2) Players who are not eligible because they are still active; 3) Players who have retired and will be eligible five years after the end of their career; 4) Players who are ineligible or suspended or disqualified for whatever official or unofficial reason (such as the steroid abusers); and 5) Players who have not yet spent their entire 10 years on the Baseball Writers Association of America [BWAA] ballot. This ballot is the initial gateway into the Hall of Fame. All 235 players in the Baseball Hall of Fame have had to get through this initial gateway. Due to the steroids controversy, quite a few players on the current BBWA ballot will soon be considered to be disqualified for the Baseball Hall of Fameas as they slip into the BBWA version of Baseball purgatory. How long this disqualification will last is an open question.

Of the 235 best players by bWAR, 158 have already been elected to the Hall of Fame. Of course, 235 minus 158 equals 77. Three (3) of these unelected 77 players have been elected in other categories. Five (5) more of these players are ineligible for various reasons. Fourteen (14) players are currently on the BBWA ballot. Five (5) more players have recently retired. Ten (10) players are still active. One player (Rogan) actually would qualify from the Negro Leagues but he has not included in the initial 235. In other words, there are 37 players of the 235 best players by BWAR who are not actually eligible for election. So we need to continue to weed through the list to find the actual 235th eligible player. To make an already long story a little shorter, the eligible 235th player on Baseball reference’s bWAR career list is actually #276, also known as John “Bid” McPhee [#277 is Hall of Famer Waite Hoyt and #278 is Hall of Famer Jim O’Rourke]. The career bWAR statistic for McPhee is 52.5 bWAR [wins above replacement]. Thus, 52.5 bWAR [career wins above replacement] should be the actual lowest common denominator (or threshold or standard) for entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame by this method.

Of the current 235 players eligible and elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, 172 of them meet this minimum standard of 52.5 career bWAR. Of course, this also means that 63 of them do not. Some of them are not even close. Like a drunk at a bar searching desperately for a date, the Hall of Fame has occasionally brought someone home who should have been left outside. Three of these Hall of Fame players (George Kelly, Bruce Sutter, and Tommy McCarthy) are not even listed in the top 1000 players by career bWAR on Baseball Reference [Not uncoincidentally, these three players are also often mentioned as the worst players in the Hall of Fame]. However, since players can only enter into the Baseball Hall of Fame and never be thrown out, this knowledge does little good. An argument could be made that this method (requiring Hall of Famers to meet a 52.5 bWAR standard) is imperfect because it doesn’t match the actual results. But the counter-argument would be that the actual results, not this method, are and have always been deeply flawed. In any event, because you need to at least start with a system, I will use this bWAR lowest common denominator method to evaluate the current crop of candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Do any or all of the 10 current candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame being considered for election by the Golden Age Era Committee meet the minimum requirement of 52.5 wins above replacement [bWAR] for their careers? In the alternative, do any of these players have a persuasive or compelling argument that some force beyond their control, such as war or racism or the stupidity of baseball owners or executives, kept them from getting to this standard?

#1 Kenton (Ken) Boyer [3B], 1955-1969, 62.8 WAR

With 62.8 career WAR, Ken Boyer is actually overqualified for the Hall of Fame. It is odd that Boyer has not already been elected. Baseball sportswriters have often pointed out that third base, Boyer’s main position, is under-represented in the Hall of Fame. Playing a great third base, Ken Boyer won the National League MVP for the 1964 World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. At that point in his career, he seemed like a shoo-in for eventual enshrinement. But that was his last good year. Back problems unraveled the rest of his career and did not allow Boyer to amass the batting statistics that would have ensured an uncontested election to the Hall. I advocate that Ken Boyer be elected.

#2 Richard (Dick) Allen [1B-3B], 1963-1977, 58.7 WAR

Dick Allen has to be the odd’s on favorite to be elected by the Golden Days Era Committee. Almost elected several years ago, Allen passed away recently. Beset by racism during his career, this one last snubbing of Dick Allen by the baseball establishment now seems like just another added injustice. Allen was quite similar to two recent players, Albert Belle and Gary Sheffield. But he was better than either of them. An absolute whale of a hitter, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Dick Allen had played ball in a supportive rather than destructive setting. As it was, Dick Allen seemed to have simply given up on the game at the age of 32. If he had had any type of career into his later 30s, Dick Allen would have been elected long ago. I also advocate that Dick Allen be elected.

#3 Orestes (Minnie) Minoso [LF] 1946-1948 [Negro Leagues], 1949-1964, 1976, 1980, 53.8 WAR

Minnie Minoso is yet another player whom the Hall of Fame simply refused to honor while he was still alive. Using 52.5 bWAR as the gateway/threshold for the Hall of Fame, Minoso ( with his career 53.8 WAR total) clears this minimum with little room to spare. But Minoso is missing the first couple of years of his career (in the tradional Major Leagues) to the racism of that time. He should have been in the Major Leagues by 1947 and become a regular by 1948 at the least. Instead, Minoso played his first full season in 1951. He is missing 10-12 WAR (at least) from the front end of his career. This missing value would put Minnie Minoso well over the 52.5 WAR threshold and at the top of this list. I strongly advocate that Minnie Minoso be elected.

#4 Walter (Billy) Pierce [P] 1945-1964, 53.4

Billy Pierce was a great pitcher and, by all reports, a very nice man. But the tides of Baseball History have washed over him and swept the remains of his career away. He does just make it over the 52.5 WAR threshold for entrance to the Hall of Fame. Although not strongly advocating that Pierce be elected, we certainly do not oppose it. Despite what Leo Durocher said, nice guys do not always have to finish last. I advocate that Billy Pierce be elected.

#5 James (Jim) Kaat [P] 1959-1983, 50.5

Like Billy Pierce, Jim Kaat was also a very good pitcher and a really nice man. His career makes an interesting matched set with the career of Pierce. While Pierce has quality to recommend his career, Kaat has one thing to sell to the Hall of Fame and that is bulk. His pitching career was as endless as his 283-237 won-loss record indicates. Personally, I have always believed that Kaat (and his unindicted co-conspirator Tommy John) belonged in the Hall. But by this present statistical analysis, he just barely misses the 52.5 WAR threshold. I regretfully do not advocate that Jim Kaat be elected.

#6 Gilbert (Gil) Hodges [1B] 1943-1963, 43.9

Gil Hodges was a very good first baseman and, by all reports, (does anyone see a theme here) a very nice man. In 1966, the baseball book “The Glory of Their Times” was published. As a direct consequence of that book, several players with very underwhelming qualifications were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. We believe that Hodges is the tip of the spear for the baseball book “The Boys of Summer” (published 1972). We need to stop this band wagon here before Preacher Roe, Carl Erskine, Carl Furillo, and Billy Cox all march together into the Hall. In all seriousness, Gil Hodges, member of the Boys of Summer and also manager of the famed 1969 Miracle Mets, is a good represention of the flip side of the accomplishment theory to the Hall of Fame. This flip side is Fame. If your threshold for the Hall is based on Fame, Hodges belongs all day long. But, using the 52.5 WAR threshold, Hodges does not belong at all. I do not advocate that Gil Hodges be elected.

#7 Pedro (Tony) Oliva [RF] 1962-1976, 43.0

Pedro (Tony) Oliva has the same story to sell to the Hall of Fame as so many other unfortunate players and pitchers. A Hall of Fame career derailed before it was ever completed. His career also has a somewhat odd shape. Oliva was at his greatest before and after the late 1960s dead ball era which co-incided with his peak years. He was still one hell of a hitter in the middle of his career, but he was better both earlier and then later before the knee injury wrecked his glide path to immortality. Most career paths are peaks. Oliva’s was like a plateau with a dip in the middle. Dick Allen has a similar trough through the dead ball years. One just has to wonder if modern medicine could have saved Tony Oliva’s knee. Like so many people, Oliva was probably just born at the wrong time. I regretfully do not advocate that Tony Oliva be elected.

#8 Maurice (Maury) Wills [SS] 1959-1972, 39.6

Maury Wills can be considered the antidote to Pierce, Kaat, and Hodges (and even Oliva). He was not a very nice man. But he was certainly an interesting one. Like Gil Hodges, Maury Wills has fame in abundance to punch his ticket to Cooperstown. As the initial breaker of Ty Cobb’s single season stolen base record, one of the great stars of the 1960s Dodgers, and the strange love thief of Doris Day’s heart, Maury has enough fame for two players. Unfortunately, his actual total accomplishments on the Baseball field does not really add up to a Hall of Fame career. I do not advocate that Maury Wills be elected.

#9 Roger Maris [RF] 1957-1968, 38.3

Roger Maris, the initial breaker of Babe Ruth’s single season home run record, has probably more fame to sell than Hodges and Wills put together. But he also has the same type of injury story as Tony Oliva, only perhaps sadder. An injury in 1963 derailed yet another great season. Then, in July of 1965, Maris fractured his hand sliding into second base. He proceeded to play the entire 1966 season with a still broken hand. There is evidence that that the Yankees did not bother to inform Maris of his injury because they wanted his presence in the line-up to sell tickets. With his hand ruined, Maris’ career slipped away from 1965 to 1968. One has to wonder how his career would have played out today. Maris, who famously did not like the bright lights of New York, would have been able to eventually pick where he played through free agency. The current medical treatments for player injuries makes the 1960s seem like the dark ages. His hand would have probably been salvaged. But instead, Maris is what he was. Like Tony Oliva, an obvious Hall of Fame career derailed by injury (and probably stress). I regretfully do not advocate that Roger Maris be elected.

#10 Danny Murtaugh [MGR] player 1941-1951, manager 1957-1976, 6.6

As I have not studied the Hall of Fame qualifications for Major League field managers at any length, my opinion about Danny Murtaugh’s Hall of Fame chances will hardly be meaningful. He did manage the Pittsburgh Pirates to five pennants. His Pirates won both World Series that they appeared in [1960 and 1971]. Murtaugh seems to be receiving a lot of credit for fielding the first completely non-white baseball line-up in traditional Major League history. He died early in 1976, ending his successful managerial career pre-maturely. But my impression of him, when he was alive, was that Murtaugh was a nice guy who managed like someone trying to drive an automobile from the back seat. Whether this impression is fair or unfair, I do not really know. In any case, I do not advocate his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

But, to be quite clear, I don’t really give a hot damn about the election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in the categories of commissioners, owners, executives, managers, coaches or batboys. So I may be missing something here.

NEXT:

Examining the actual inductees of the Early Baseball Era and Golden Days Era Baseball Committees.