2025/26 Player Ranking: #1 Aaron Judge
Began: 11/29/2025. Published: 12/11/2025
Order and simplification are the first steps toward the mastery of a subject – Thomas Mann
1. Aaron Judge: Last 3 seasons/4.6-10.8-9.7 [Rating=575/6=9.58 WAR]
Since the Covid-plague shortened 2020 season, the two best players in Major League Baseball have been undisputedly Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, not necessarily in that order. Because he had a better season by bWAR in 2025 [9.7], Judge ranks above Ohtani [7.7] in these ratings. But over the entire 5 year span [2021-2025], Shohei [45.5] has a clear edge over Judge [41.8] by total bWAR. On the other hand, Judge has had two seasons during this time [10.8 bWAR in both 2022 and 2024] better than Ohtani’s best year by bWAR [10.0 in 2023]. However, no matter how you slice it, one thing is perfectly clear: these two players have been number one and two over this time period and there is no other Major League Baseball [MLB] player or pitcher who is even remotely close. Who you consider or rate #1 is almost just your personal preference.
Like Ohtani, Aaron Judge is a pretty unique talent. He is gigantic for a good Baseball Position Player (though not so much for a Pitcher). Probably the two best comps for Aaron Judge are Frank Howard, the big 1960s and 1970s slugger, and Mark McGwire, the Oakland A’s and St. Louis Cardinal’s basher of the 1980s and 1990s. However, both of these players, despite also being enormous human beings, were/are smaller than Judge. And both of them were much stiffer than Judge. One thing that you quickly notice about Aaron Judge in the field or running is that he appears to be athletic, limber, and even graceful sometimes. Although he is not Willie Mays, Judge has been able to play a passable center field in the Majors. To envision either Howard or McGwire playing center field, especially in their 30s, is to invite cognitive chaos. To be fair, Howard did play both right and left field in the Majors but never had a single game in center. McGwire was just a first baseman. Both of these men had more in common with Judge’s huge teammate Giancarlo Stanton. Currently in his mid-30s, Stanton would best be described as a lumbering and musclebound athlete (and he, of course, is also noticeably smaller than Judge). Basically, there has never been any player in Major League history who combined Aaron Judge’s size and athleticism. Not even close.
Career Path Progression [b. 4/26/92 – 2011-2025]
Also like McGwire and Howard, Aaron Judge has been a late bloomer. The usual Baseball Career Path Progression [BCPP] follows a set trajectory: 1) Developing: while the professional player builds and refines their skills from ages 18 to 25; 2) Peaking: while the player blooms from age 26 to 30 or so; and then 3) Declining: when the player tries to fight off the inevitable deterioration from age into their 30s [and sometimes even 40s]. The great majority of positional Baseball Players hit their peak in their late 20s [MLB Pitchers can be a completely different animal]. But Frank Howard peaked from ages 31 to 33 before a back injury wiped out the rest of his career path. Mark McGwire peaked from ages 31 to 36 before knee surgery curtailed and then ended his career. Aaron Judge is currently in the middle of a late peak very similiar to those of Howard and McGwire. Presently, his best 2 seasons are 2022 (age 30) and 2024 (age 32) with 2024 arguably the better of the two. Interestingly, the year 2025 was on track to be an even better year for Judge but a mid-season elbow injury derailed it. Even so, 2025 was easily his third best year. There is a good chance [50-50] that 2026 or 2027 may be Judge’s actual peak if his career follows the same path as Mark McGwire. McGwire, of course, peaked at the age of 34 with his 70 home run season. Judge will be 34 during the 2026 season. There is also a non-negative chance that an injury ends Judge’s peak (or even his career) like the bad back did for Frank Howard and sore knee did for McGwire. But the career path of Aaron Judge has been unique in many ways. Unlike so many other huge Baseball Players, he may actually last until he is 40 or more.
a) College
From 2011-2013 (ages 19-21), Aaron Judge attended and played baseball for Fresno State in California. He was listed back then as being 6 foot 6 inches or 6 foot 7 inches and weighing from 210 to 240 pounds. Despite his giant size, Judge did not hit for great (or basically any) power. He hit just 2 Home runs in 187 at bats in 2011 and 4 Hrs in 201 ABs in 2012. In the Majors, these power stats [6 HRs in 388 ABs] are those of a small quick infielder. Perhaps the most interesting statistic though was Judge’s plate discipline. In 2011, he walked 25 times and had a .358 batting average. In 2012, he walked 48 times and had a .308 BA. This indicates either opposing pitchers stopped pitching to him or he learned to take a walk. In the Summer of 2012, Judge played in the Cape Cod League and showed his first true inkling of strength (five HRs in 100 ABs). Then, in 2013, Aaron Judge gave the world the first glimpse of his future skills. He batted .369 and slugged .637, for Fresno State, crunching 15 2Bs, 4 3Bs, & 12 HRs in 206 ABs. He also walked 35 times but struck out 53 times, an increase from 2011 & 2012 (exactly 42 SOs each year). One other very intersting statistic from Judge’s college career was that, in 169 games, he stole 36 bases and was only caught 5 times. Over his college career, he showed a good feel to hit, very good plate discipline, good athleticism, and the potential for even greater power when his body filled out. The downside was also obvious and a well-known scouting maxim: Because of his size, his strike zone was so large that good professional pitchers would probably eat him alive.
b) Minor Leagues
The New York Yankees, to the everlasting credit of their scouting staff, took Aaron Judge as the 32nd pick of the 2013 draft. Aaron Judge moved through the minors at a steady rate, with statistical profile consistent with his 2013 College season. In 2014, he hit .308 and slugged .486 with 24 2Bs, 4 3Bs, and 17 HRs in 467 in 467 ABs in A-Ball and High A-Ball. The level of competition was obviously higher than in college but the extra-base ratios were similiar [More 2Bs than HRs]. In 2015, he spent the 1st half of the year at Double-A [2A] before being promoted to Triple-A [3A] for the later part. With the two level jump from 1A to 3A, Judge had a poorer overall statisical year [478 AB, 26 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 20 HRs, .255 BA and a .448 SA] with a large decrease in offense as he moved up the ladder [.284 BA and .516 SA in 2A versus .224 BA and .373 SA in 3A]. Were better pitchers exploiting Judge’s gigantic strike zone as the scouts had feared? It certainly seemed so. During 2014, Judge had drawn 89 walks [BBs] against 131 strikeouts [SOs] over 467 at bats [ABs] in A-Ball. But in 2015, Judge drew only 53 BBs against 144 SOs in 478 ABs in 2A/3A. In 2016, the 23-year-old Judge started off the season back in Triple-A. He bounced back from his poor 3A showing in 2015. For 2016, his 3A stats were 18 2Bs, 1 3B, and 19 HRs in 352 ABs for a .270 BA and .489 SA. He also walked 76 times but struck out an enormous 152 times. Promoted to the Major Leagues at the end of the year, Judge was destroyed by Major League Pitchers. In 84 ABs, Judge hit 4 HRs but batted just .179 with a SA of .345 while walking 9 times and striking out in exactly half of his at bats, a phenomenal 42 times. Based on that performance, Judge was going to have a hard time keeping a job in the Major Leagues.
c) Major Leagues: Rookie of the Year 2017
It is conventional modern Baseball wisdom that the leap between Triple-A and the Major Leagues is as wide now as it has ever been. Rookie hotshots come up and routinely struggle as they try to adjust to supersonic fastballs and tortuous breaking pitches. In his brief 2016 exposure to MLB pitching, Judge was basically overwhelmed. Despite this, the Yankees gave Judge a starting job for the 2017 season. He would play 155 games and get 542 ABs in his rookie year. Before the season started, a reasonable best-case estimate of his 2017 production in 542 ABs would have been something like: 25 2B, 3 3B, and 25 HR with a BA of about .240 and SA of .400 to .425 or so. He would walk an impressive 80 to 90 times but strike out an astounding 250 times or even more. There was also a considerable chance that his strikeouts would swamp his talent and he would be sent back to the minor leagues. With this projection in mind, his actual production [24 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 52 HRs with a .284 BA and .627 SA and also 127 walks and 208 strikeouts], all things considered, was amazing. After the debacle of 2015, Judge had made the adjustments necessary and began pulling the ball which unlocked his light tower power. His plate discipline had also taken a quantum leap. Interestingly, he broke [and still holds] the Major League record for most combined walks [BBs] & strikeouts [SOs] in a single season [335]. Aaron Judge’s 52 HRs were a rookie record [since broken by Pete Alonso with 53 in 2019]. Instead of struggling in his first full season, Judge improved incredibly from a 3A BA of .270 to a MLB BA of .284 and from a 3A SA of .489 to a MLB SA of .627! Aaron Judge’s rookie campaign is one of the greatest of all-time……and also has to be one of the most unexpected.
d) Major Leagues: 2018 to 2021
Of course, Baseball is a game of adjustments. After Aaron Judge’s fantastic Rookie year, pitchers adjusted. They attacked Judge with breaking stuff low and away and fastballs up and in. They concentrated on getting ahead and not walking him. For four straight seasons from 2018 to 2021, his statistics would be quite consistent [BAs of .278, .272, .257, and .287; SAs of .528, .540, .554, and .544; OPS+ of 150, 143, 143, and 149].* From 2018 to 2020, he missed time due to various injuries [2018- broken wrist after a hit by a pitch; 2019- oblique muscle strain; 2020- fractured rib and right calf strain plus Covid]. In 2021, Judge was finally able to play his first full season since his rookie year (missing some time when he came down with Covid mid-season). The 2021 season seemed to indicate what a normal Aaron Judge year would look like going forward. He played 148 games, went to bat 550 times, batted .287, slugged .544, and had good power stats [24 2B, 0 3B, 39 HRs with 75 BBs and 158 SOs]. Of course, Yankee Stadium, his home park very much favors left-handed batters with a short right field porch and large left field. The right-handed hitting Judge was at a big disadvantage in his home park [his home stats for 2021 were: 74 G, 270 ABs, 9 2Bs, 15 HRs, 41 RBIs, .259 BA and .459 SA; his road stats were 74 G, 289 ABs, 15 2Bs, 24 HRs, 57 RBIs, .314 BA & .625 SA]. With free agency looming after the 2022 season, it looked like the best thing for Aaron Judge to do career-wise was to play out the year and maybe move to a park that better suited his talents. The NY Yankees tried to sign Aaron Judge to a long-term contract before and during the 2021 season, but Judge bet on himself and played out the year.
*OPS+ measures how much better a hitter was than an average MLB player. Thus, an OPS+ of 150 means that the hitter was 50% better than average.
e) Major Leagues: Mastery 2022 to 2025
Instead of trying to repeat 2021, Aaron Judge once again adjusted. For the 2022 season, he simplified his swing and decided to become an all fields hitter. With his shorter and more controlled swing, Judge let the ball come to him and hit it where it was pitched. He talked about just trying to meet the ball and let his natural (gigantic) strength do the rest. Interestingly, this adjustment to all fields helped him at Yankee stadium itself. In 2022, Judge would begin hitting opposite field (right field) home runs in bunches. The short right field porch in Yankee Stadium made him almost unpitchable at home. At 30 years old, Judge became one of the greatest hitters of all time, on a par with Ruth, Williams, and Bonds (and, of course, Josh Gibson). His statistics for 2022 [28 2B, 0 3B, 62 HR, 131 RBI, .311 BA, .686 SA, 111 BB, and a 210 OPS+] were eye-popping. The Yankees then signed him to a 40 million dollars annually for 10 years contract. The Yankees would have surely been pleased with 10 years of similar production to 2018-2021 [40 HRs in a 150 game season, .275 BA, .550 SA]. But Aaron Judge had actually leveled up. In 2023, he was on his way to another 2022 when a foot injury derailed his year [106 games, 37 HR, .267 BA and .613 SA]. In 2024, he was actually better than 2022 [36 2B, 1 3B, 58 HRs, 133 RBI, .322 BA, .701 SA, 133 BB, and a 225 OPS+]. In 2025, Judge was on track to have an even greater year but was sidelined by an elbow injury [53 HR, 114 RBI, .331 BA, .688 SA, 124 BB, and a 215 OPS+]. In 2026, he will be 34 years old. Conventional wisdom would say that there is a good chance that 2026 will be the beginning of his decline.
f) The rest of Aaron Judge’s career [2026 on]
In all probabilty, Aaron Judge will begin to fade. The question is, as it is for all MLB baseball players, how quick will his talents dim? Absent injuries, he will, in all likelihood, lose ground slowly. He obviously keeps himself in very good, if not great, shape. He seems to have the exact type of personality to maintain his tools. But there is also a slight possibility that he stays at his peak for awhile, perhaps even improves some. Listed at 6 foot 8 inches and a very specific 282 pounds, Judge has taken a long time to mazimize his skill set. His career path may be unique simply because of his size. Judge could actually peak somewhere from 2026 to perhaps 2029. The best may actually yet to be. There is also one other thing that may be in Judge’s favor. MLB is implementing the automatic strike zone. Anyone who watches NY Yankee games knows that umpires have a hard time with Aaron Judge’s huge strike zone. Judge gets a lot of low, wide and weird strikes called on him. With his plate discipline, the automatic strike zone can only help him.
Baseball Hall of Fame Chances [2016-2025/62.3 bWAR ]
Absent a steroid scandal or mass murder spree, nothing will keep Judge out of the Baseball Hall of Fame [BHOF]. Basically the dividing line for a player to be elected to the BHOF is from 40 to 60 career bWAR with 50 bWAR being the usual bottom line (unless you are someone like Harold Baines and the fix is in). Players in the 40-60 bWAR statistical grey area have an easier time getting into the BHOF if they have a very high peak rather than consistent excellence. Judge is past the grey area now and his peak is not just high, but incredibly high. Aaron Judge is a lock for the BHOF on the first ballot after he has been retired for the minimum five years. The real question now is exactly how high up the all-time list can his career go? Only the best of the best, the players that even non-baseball fans may know, accumulate 100 bWAR in their career. At the rate that he is going, Aaron Judge will be right there with them.