The 2026 Hall of Fame Results
Began: January 22, 2026. Finished: March 26, 2026 [Post dedicated to James 1964-2026, always in my heart]
Nothing worth having was ever achieved without effort – Theodore Roosevelt
Part One: Introduction
It’s now official. The 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame [BHOF] class is: 1) Carlos Beltran, 2) Andruw Jones, and 3) Jeff Kent. Although I’m sure their families are happy, it is not exactly the most exciting BHOF class of all time. But it is nice to end the debate over whether Beltran’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal; Jone’s 2012 domestic violence incident; and Kent’s defensive shortcomings (not to mention surly attitude) are why they had not already been elected to the BHOF. Watching the induction day programming on MLB.com, the most interesting aspect was the obvious visual evidence of Andruw Jones’ continuous weight gain throughout his career. It brought back memories of the great Tony Gwynn. Fortunately, unlike Gwynn, Andruw Jones does not seem to have continued to pack on the pounds after his retirement. Jones showed up looking relatively svelte compared to his physique for the final five years or so of his career. It reinforced one aspect of Jones’ career that is not so easy to overlook. If he had simply stayed in shape and had a decent second-half to his career (his 30s), Jones would have been a slam dunk Hall of Famer with well over 500 career home runs [HR]. The other immediate takeaway from the MLB BHOF telecast was how orderly the Baseball Writers Association of America [BBWAA] elections have become. Recently, BBWAA elections have evolved (or devolved) into a very regular pattern. A player comes on the ballot. If they get the required 5% to stay on the ballot, the player then gets their 10 years to grow their vote up to the 75% threshold for election. In the last few years, since the great mass of steroid-tainted players finally dropped off the ballot, this election process has become almost stately. Once a player survives the initial culling, the whole story becomes about his progress towards the finish line (provided that he isn’t immediately elected). Most importantly, this progress relies seems to rely almost solely upon one modern measurement of player value.
It’s all about the WAR
The two players elected by the BBWAA to the BHOF in 2026 both represent this orderly progress towards election. Beltran came on the ballot in 2023 and received 46.5% of the vote in his 1st year. In his second, he was up to 57.1%. In 2025, Carlos came closer with 70.3% of the ballots cast. Then, in 2026, his steady progress got him over the finish line [84.2%]. By WAR [Wins Above Replacement],* the preiminent modern player value system, Beltran should have been elected immediately. The gray area for induction to the BHOF is basically from 40 to 60 WAR with 50 WAR basically being the break even point. Beltran finished his career with exactly 70.0 WAR, a slam-dunk number. Carlos only had to wait until his fourth year as punishment for (or in consideration of) his deep involvement in the 2017 Houston Astro’s sign stealing scandal. On the other hand, Andruw Jones started his journey to induction from much further back than Beltran. But he also made steady progress until his eventual enshrinement into the BHOF [nine years from 2018 to 2026: 1st year-7.3%, 2nd-7.5%, 3rd-19.4%, 4th-33.9%, 5th-41.4%, 6th-58.1%, 7th-61.6% 8th-66.2%, and finally 9th year-78.4% and election]. Jones’ progress was especially interesting becuase of how close he came to getting kicked right off the ballot in his first two years of eligibility. Jones’ eventual election seemed against the odds at that point. But, once Jones survived, it was probably inevitable. Jones is credited with a career total of 62.7 WAR. Unlike many players, Jones’ WAR total was primarily defensive. There were questions of whether all this defensive credit was appropriate. But, in the end, WAR won out. It can be argued that the BBWAA election system is now controlled by the WAR metric and that, going forward, a player’s WAR total will continue to be (absent some steroid stigma) the most significant factor of whether a player is elected to the BHOF or not.
*There are actually two competing WAR evaluation systems. One is used by Baseball Reference [bWAR] and the other is advocated by the website Fan Graphs [fWAR]. In this article, WAR refers to bWAR.
The History of WAR and the BHOF
Of course, the WAR metric did not even exist for most of Baseball history. It can certianly be argued that the BHOF always needed WAR (or some system that allowed the sorting of candidates). Since the BHOF’s very first election in 1936, some players of decidedly uncertain BHOF qualifications have been elected right alongside the undeniably great. The Sabrmetric revolution in Baseball from the 1980s to the 2000s developed various player evaluation systems (ratings reducing a player’s total contributions to a single number) into the game. The godfather of Sabrmetrics, Bill James, had one called win shares. But WAR grew out of an alphabet soup of other systems, (such as VORP and WARP, a very early iteration of WAR). By 2010, WAR was the victor amongst all these competing rating systems and was listed right beside the traditional Baseball stats on Baseballreference.com (which had become the main statistical database for all Baseball in the internet age). It can be and has been argued that WAR’s actaul greatest strength is not exactly how well it evaluates a Baseball player but just how completely it has been accepted. Since it’s virtual adoption by the BBWAA for BHOF elections, it has become the greatest indicator of a player’s chances for election by them. Strangely though, WAR has not become the greatest indicator of possible induction by the BHOF Veteran’s Committees [VC]. These 3 Committees, descendants of the original VC, are tasked by the BHOF with honoring those players [and non-players] overlooked in the BBWAA elections. A relic from Major League Baseball’s past bizarre BHOF elections, the VC operates in a cloud of secrecy and (hopefully metaphoric) cigar smoke to make inscrutable selections that lead one to wonder aloud: “What exactly were they thinking?” This strange disconnect between the standards used to elect players by the BBWAA and honor players through the 3 VCs has caused some interesting players to fall through the cracks of the BHOF election system.
The Tao of Steve Garvey
It has also knee-capped the electibility of some players who would have sailed into the BHOF before WAR became the standard. Perhaps the prime example of this type would be Steve Garvey. Most baseball fans remember two things about Garvey: 1) he was the Los Angeles Dodgers’ first baseman back in the 1970s and 2) he was romantically involved with three separate women in 1989, right after his baseball career ended, while going through a divorce. This situation concluded with a divorce, two paternity suits from the women that he broke up with, and a marriage to the one woman that he had not gotten pregnant. During his career, Garvey had cultivated an image as the “All-American Boy” with a “Mr. Clean” image. He was even nickmaned the “Senator” because it was widely assumed, not completely in jest, that his post-Baseball career would be in politics. The paternity scandal turned him from “Mr. Clean” to “Mr. Tarnished” and his political aspirations never recovered. However, while he was active as a Major League Baseball player from 1971 to 1988, the assumption grew from a mere possibility to an almost sure thing that he would be elected to the BHOF. Unfortunately for Garvey, the inevitablity of his election would die on the vine and never recover, just like his potential political career. A very superficial analysis would probably conclude that the Paternity Scandal torpedoed his BHOF chances. But the evidence does not back this analysis up. Garvey retired in 1988, the scandal happened in 1989, and then he received 41.6% of the BHOF vote during his very first appearance on the ballot in 1993. No player, in the entire history of BBWAA elections, has ever received a greater percentage of the vote in his first appearance on the ballot without later being elected. So, if it wasn’t the paternity/divorce scandal that crashed his candidacy, what was it?
Off the Path of Glory and into the Weeds
In 1993, Steve Garvey first became eligible to be elected to the BHOF. At that time, Garvey had 15 years to get elected (it is now set at 10 years in an effort to keep steroid-tainted players out) as long as he received the minimum of five percent to stay on the ballot. During his 18 year Major League career, he had hit 272 Home Runs, amassed 1308 Runs Batted In, had a batting average of .294, and accumulated 2599 hits. Garvey had a consecutive game playing streak of 1207 games from 1975 to 1983, the third longest in Baseball history at that time (now 4th behind Ripken also). He had won the National League MVP (Most Valuable Player) award in 1974 and finished 2nd in 1978. Garvey had collected 200 or more hits in five different seasons, leading the League twice. As a maraschino cherry on top of his career, he was spectacular in the post -season (11 HR, .338 BA in 55 games). It was not an overwhelming BHOF case but it was certainly a good one. More importantly, he had played most of his career in Los Angeles and he was quite famous (for a Baseball Player). As already stated, Garvey received 41.6% of the vote in his first appearance on the 1993 BHOF ballot. Of the top twelve men on the 1993 Ballot, ten have been elected to the BHOF. The two that have not were Garvey, who finished fourth among the twelve, and Ken Boyer, who finished tenth. At this point, his election seemed all but assured. But instead, it stalled. In his 2nd year on the Ballot, Garvey actually lost a little support (36.4%). In his 3rd year, he recovered and posted the highest vote total he ever would (42.6%). But, in his 4rth through 6th years, Garvey once again stalled (37.3%, then 35.3% and back up to 41.2%). In his 7th year, his candidacy began to flatline (30.2%). It recovered a little after that, but continued to drift downwards as the BHOF ballot became stuffed with unelectable steroid abusers. In his 13th year, he bottomed out at 20.5% before recovering to 26.0% and then finishing, in his 15th and final year, at 21.1%. So what happened?
A Victim of Bill James & Sabrmetrics
Steve Garvey’s chances of being elected to the BHOF were almost surely the 1st victim of the Sabrmetric revolution. The Bill James Baseball Abstract was first mass marketed in 1982. James was not kind to Garvey. James basically believed that Garvey, while a good player, was also totally overrated. While a good but not great hitter, Garvey did not walk much and made a crapload of outs. In the field, he did not make many errors but had no range. Garvey played first base, the least valuable position on the field, becuase he had a weak throwing arm. Year after year, James kept up a drumbeat that Garvey was nowhere near as good as people thought. This evalauation eventually took its toll and, when Garvey finally made it onto the BHOF ballot, he went nowhere after a good start. The development of player evaluation systems like WAR put the final nails in Steve Garvey’s BHOF coffin. His bWAR total is just 38.1 wins above replacement. This is actually below the range of bWAR usually associated with a lively BHOF discussion [40 to 60 bWAR]. It is well below the usual break even point [50 bWAR] for an actual induction to the BHOF, and far far below the total that usually makes election inevitable [60 bWAR]. As the WAR system took over the BHOF discussion, Garvey’s chance of election sank like a stone. Interestingly, Steve Garvey has had no luck in the Veterans Committee [VC] elections either. Once his 15 years were up on the BBWAA ballot, he was thrown into the pot with all the other guys passed over by the BBWAA. The VC haS a history of thumbing their noses at modern Sabrmetric analysis. But, while this should have helped Garvey, it did not. Above all else, VC elections are political. It’s about who you know and what friends you have. Steve Garvey was not a well-liked player during his career. He was seen as an odd duck, strangely old-fashioned, and too “goody-two-shoes.” Other players seemed to view Garvey as a self-righteous hypocrite. And these views were seemingly confirmed by his post-career paternity test scandal. Garvey’s chances with the VC went nowhere fast.
Conclusion
Steve Garvey has not and, at this point, will probably never be inducted into the BHOF. Garvey has run out his 15 years of BBWAA eligibility and now also been passed over multiple times by the Veterans Committees. But it is also an almost inescapable conclusion that, if he had just come on the ballot 10 years earlier or the Sabrmetric revolution had started 10 years later, Garvey would almost undoubtedly be in the Baseball Hall of Fame right now.
Part Two: The 2026 BBWAA BHOF Election Results
There were 27 players on the 2026 BHOF BBWAA Ballot. Two were elected. Thirteen players received enough votes to return in 2027 and try again. One player (Manny Ramirez) saw his time on the BBWAA Ballot mercifully come to an end after his 10th and final chance. 11 players, all on their first year on the BBWAA Ballot, didn’t receive the required 5% of the votes and fell into BHOF oblivion (also known as the Veteran Committees’ bucket).
The following is a round-up of the 27 players that were considered with a brief commentary on their future chances at being elected to the BHOF by either the BBWAA of the VC. The primary consideration for their possible induction was the player’s career WAR totals but also whether they will be disqualified for the content of their character.
The 2026 Immortals [2] Elected.
Carlos Beltrán [70.0 bWAR]: 358 votes, 84.2% (4th year on the ballot). It was inevitable that Beltran would be elected. The sin of sign-stealing has never been a capital offense in Baseball. Career highs in WAR: 8.2-7.0-6.8-6.5-5.8-5.4 with three more years in the 4 WAR range.
Andruw Jones [62.7 bWAR]: 333 votes 78.4% (9th year). It was also inevitable that Jones be elected. But the disconnect between his defensive reputation [the greatest center-fielder of all time?] and reality [Better than Willie Mays? Much better than Paul Blair, Garry Maddox, Devon White? Better than Kevin Kiermaier or Torii Hunter?] put a 9-year hitch into his election. Career highs in WAR: 8.2-7.4-7.1-6.7-6.5-5.6 with two more years of exactly 4.9 WAR. It has been argued that Jones’ WAR totals are padded by inappropriate credit for his defense. Ignoring that, WAR indicates that Jones actually had a greater peak than Beltran.
The 2026 Future BBWAA Immortal Inevitables [4]
Chase Utley [64.6 bWAR]: 251 votes, 59.1% (3rd). The eventual election of the Utley is all but inevitable. Like a lot of modern players, Chase Utley would have had a better BHOF case if he had entered Baseball out of High School rather than college and been able to pad his career totals. Career highs in WAR: 9.0-8.2-7.8-7.3-7.3-5.8. By WAR, Utley had a higher peak than either of the two actual 2026 BHOF inductees.
Félix Hernández [49.8]: 196 votes, 46.1% (2nd). Hernandez does not have the career record [163 wins and 136 losses] that usually means BHOF induction pending. But he was arguably the best pitcher in the Major League Baseball from 2009 to 2015. At 49.8% after just two years on the ballot, his election to the BHOF seems inevitable. The election of Felix Hernandez into the BHOF will possibly re-open the cases for a some pitchers who have been already passed over without adequate due process of thought (such as David Cone, Orel Hershier, and also Johan Santana). Career highs in WAR: 7.2-6.4-5.9-5.3-5.1 with two more years of plus 4 WAR.
The 2026 Veteran Committee Inevitables [5]
Andy Pettitte [60.2]: 206 votes, 48.5% (8th). Support for Pettitte’s induction into the BHOF has always been held back by his admission of taking HGH [Human Growth Hormone] in an attempt to heal faster. But, at some point, his honesty about the situation, his honorable reasons for taking it (he said he felt an obligation to the team to try to heal as fast as possible), his great post-season record, and the fact that HGH is not a steroid will almost surely outweigh this supposed negative and he will get inducted. It will probably be by a Veterans Committee filled with his buddies. But at least he will be deserving. Career highs in WAR: 8.4-6.8-5.6 with six more years in the 3.0 WAR range and seven more in the 2.0 WAR range. By WAR, an oddly long career of consistent workmanship-like performance with 3 years of BHOF quality peak years. Weird.
The 2026 Immortal Outcasts [7]
Alex Rodriguez [117.4]: 170 votes, 40.0% (5th). Rodriguez, of course, has the stats of an all-time great and a “slam dunk” Hall of Famer pedigree. But he also took a boatload of steroids to achieve his success even after they were outlawed, and acted like a total asshole after he got caught doing it (deny, lie, throw other people under the bus). Like Pete Rose or the damned 1919 Chicago Black Sox, Alex Rodriguez will serve Baseball better as a warning to others not to make the same mistakes than as a celebrated member of the BHOF. Career highs in WAR: 10.4-9.4-9.4-9.4-8.8-8.5-8.4-8.3-7.6-6.8-5.7 with five more years in 4 WAR range.
Manny Ramírez [69.3]: 165 votes, 38.8% (10th/final). Like ARod, Ramirez was guilty of taking steroids throughout his career and it’s hard to separate his unique greatness from all the pharmaceutical help. But, very much unlike ARod, Ramirez just accepted his punishment gracefully. The fact that ARod got/gets more support for the BHOF from BBWAA voters than Ramirez goes to show that the BBWAA BHOF voters are unable to discern shades of gray. Career highs in WAR: 7.3-6.0-6.0-5.4-5.3-5.2 with six more years in the 4 WAR range. Ramirez’ WAR totals are held down by his admittedly brutal defense. In that sense, he is the anti-Andruw Jones. As defense is the most variable and unreliable measurement in the WAR calculation, there is a good chance that Ramirez is being docked too much for his pitiful defense.
The 2026 Mortal Leftovers [16]
Bobby Abreu [60.2]: 131 votes 30.8% (7th). The odd exception that proves a usually distinct rule. Bobby Abreu, according to his bWAR score, should get much more BHOF support than he does. But, while he did many things well, Abreu did not do anything spectacularly well. Abreu will be off to the tender mercies of the VC soon. Abreu should do better there. Career highs in WAR: 6.6-6.4-6.2-6.1-5.8-5.4-5.2. His seven peak years were from 1998 to 2004, ages 24 to 30. After turing 30, Abreu’s best 3 years were 3.9-3.6-3.2 WAR. If he had maintained more of his skills deep into his 30s, Abreu would already be in the BHOF.
Jimmy Rollins [47.9]: 108 votes, 25.4% (5th). A borderline BHOF candidate, it will be interesting to see if the election of his double play partner Utley will help him. On the other hand, the election of Alan Trammell didn’t help Lou Whitaker one little bit. And Whitaker has much better career numbers than Rollins. Career highs in WAR: 6.1-5.5-4.9 with 3 more seasons in the 4 WAR range. His best season [2007] feels like it should add up to much more than just 6.1 WAR.
Cole Hamels [59.0]: 101 votes, 23.8% (1st). If Felix Hernandez gets in, the case for Cole Hamels becomes instantly much better. Hamels has similar stats & a much better W-L record (163-122). However, while Hamels was pretty much the equal of Hernandez career wise, there is no disputing the fact that King Felix had a higher peak. Career highs in WAR: 6.4-6.4-5.5-5.2 with five nore years of 4.0+ WAR. Hamels has more Career WAR than Felix Hernandez but obviously not the peak.
Dustin Pedroia [51.8]: 88 votes, 20.7% (2nd). Pedroia was well on his way to the BHOF when injuries decimated his knee and stopped his career cold. He will have to eventually take a seat on the bench with all the other injured BHOF wannabees like Don Mattingly or Tony Conigliaro or Grady Sizemore who left their admission ticket on the trainer’s table. But Pedroia may have a much better case than a lot of these guys. Dustin was stopped right at the edge of the Hall. Perhaps only two or three more injury free seasons would have made Pedroia a lock. Career highs in WAR: 8.0-6.9-6.1-5.6-5.4-5.1 with some other seasons that may have gotten in this range sans injuries [like 2010: 3.2 WAR in just 75 games, for example). The Laser show was one hell of a ballplayer.
Mark Buehrle [59.0]: 85 votes, 20.0% (6th). The pitching equivalent of Bobby Abreu, it is interesting that they are on the ballot on the almost exact same time. A very good pitcher for a long time, Buehrle did many things very well. But he completely forgot to be spectacular. Off to the VC with him where he can be overshadowed by lots of spectacular guys (like Doc Gooden). Career highs in WAR: 6.1-6.0-5.3-5.0 with 4 more years of 4.0+ WAR.
Omar Vizquel [45.6]: 78 votes, 18.4% (9th). Vizquel was shaping up to be the Waterloo for old time traditional sportswriters versus the new Sabrmetrics oriented guys. Then things got weird. He was accused of assaulting his wife and sexually harassing an autistic bat boy. Before the accusations, Vizquel seemed like a lock to eventually be elected to the BHOF as the old-timers flipped the Sabrmetric crowd the bird. Now his chances are on life support. Next year, they turn off the ventilator. Career high in WAR: 6.0 in 1999 when he had a .333 BA. His next highest seasonal mark was just 4.0 WAR. Tons of years with 3.0+ WAR. Vizquel’s career was endless [24 years].
David Wright [49.1]: 63 votes, 14.8% (3rd). Like Pedroia, injuries derailed his BHOF gravy train. But, in Wright’s case, it was the back not the knee. Unlike Pedroia, Wright’s injury did not stop his career dead in its tracks. He slowly diminished until he was not being able to play any more. Uninjured, Wright would have made the BHOF easily. Career highs in WAR: 8.3-7.1-6.9-5.2-4.8 etc. At the age of 30, Wright had 46.4 WAR. From 31 on, he had just 2.7 WAR.
Francisco Rodríguez [24.2]: 50 votes, 11.8% (4th). In a previous post, I argued that the way to make sense of the WAR score for a reliever was to double it. If you do that for ‘K-Rod,’ you get 48.4 WAR, right in the middle of the BHOF grey area for WAR. I’ve always thought of Rodriguez, with his Major League single season record of 62 saves, as the Roger Maris of relievers. Of course, not that it’s totally relevant, Maris never got into the BHOF.[career highs in WAR: 3.7-3.3-2.5-2.3-2.2 etc. Doubled that would be: 7.4-6.6-5.0-4.6-4.4 etc.
Torii Hunter [50.6]: 37 votes, 8.7% (6th). I never thought of Torii Hunter as a Hall of Famer. His very long, productive, and praise worthy career seems like a good place to separate the non-BHOF candidates and the blessed. Unfortunately, Hunter will probably always stay on the wrong side of that line. Career highs in WAR: 5.4-5.3-4.7-4.2 with eight seasons of 3.0+ WAR. Hunter was reportedly an intelligent dedicated and determined player. His two career highs in WAR are good evidence of that. He had 5.3 WAR at the age of 33 in 2009 and thn 5.4 WAR in 2012 at the age of 36. The number of players that peaked at 36 is minscule to non-existent.
The 2026 Mortal One and Dones [27] [Hall of Very Good Plaque Winners]
Ryan Braun [47.2]: 15 votes, 3.5% (1st). Arod Lite. Braun tested positive for steroids and then, rather than just admitting it, waged a totally dishonest and vindictive campaign to discredit the guy who collected his urine. May he rot in Baseball hell. If he had never been caught or gotten away with his slander, Braun would have had a low key BHOF case. Of course, he wasn’t anywhere near as good once he evidently stopped juicing. Career highs in WAR: 7.7-6.9-6.2-5.7-4.6, all from 2008-2012. After being caught juicing, his career high was 4.4 WAR.
Edwin Encarnación [35.3]: 6 votes, 1.4% (1st). After struggling to establish himself in his 20s, Encarnacion had a nice little renaissance as a designated hitter from 2012 to 2019 [ages 29 to 36]. His very best years (including two 42 HR campaigns) look like off years for David Ortiz. One way to think of BHOF candidates is that they need to collect 5.0 WAR for 10 years to accumulate the 50 WAR necessary to make a borderline BHOF case. Edwin Encarnacion had only one year in his entire career with 5.0 or more WAR. It was 2012 and he finished with exactly 5.0 WAR [career highs in WAR: 5.0-4.8-4.1-3.8-3.8]. Of course, WAR gives no love to DHs.
Shin-Soo Choo [34.7]: 3 votes, 0.7% (1st). As the first star player from Korea to play in the Major Leagues, Choo may get a little extra love from the VC. But, while he was a very fine player, Shin-Soo Choo not actually of BHOF caliber. Career highs in WAR: 5.9-5.5-4.6 with 3 more seasons of 3.0+ WAR. In other words, two good years does not a BHOF career make.
Matt Kemp [21.6]: 2 votes, 0.5% (1st). Of all the 2026 one and done guys, it can be argued that Kemp was the best coulda shoulda woulda contender in the group. He certainly had a Hall of Fame type year in 2011 [26 years old with a league leading 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, plus 8.0 WAR]. That 2011 season is best remembered for being his rebound from a relationship with Rihanna, the famous singer. After basically playing way under his talents in 2010 while he romanced Rihanna, Kemp turned into a Baseball monster in 2011. In 2012, Kemp started the season like he would rule the National League for the next five or so years. But then his career was derailed by a cascade of injuries and Kemp never fulfilled his promise. Career highs in WAR: 8.0-4.9-3.9-2.8-1.6 etc. One great year and then poof!
Hunter Pence [30.9]: 2 votes, 0.5% (1st). Fine career. Interesting guy. Not a Baseball Hall of Famer. Career highs in WAR: 5.7-4.0-4.0-3.8-3.4 etc.
Rick Porcello [18.8]: 2 votes, 0.5% (1st). On good year gets him on the ballot [2016 record of 22 wins against 4 losses]. But one good and lucky year does not get you elected. Career highs in WAR: 4.7-3.8-2.5-2.4-2.3 etc.
Alex Gordon [34.8]: 1 vote, 0.2% (1st). For a four year span [2011-14], Gordon was a hell of a good and under-rated player. But he struggled before that period and collapsed after it and that torpedoed his chances for the BHOF. Career highs in WAR: 7.3-6.3-6.1-4.1-2.8 with his four best years from 2011 to 2014 [plus 23.8 of his 34.8 career WAR].
Nick Markakis [33.7]: 1 vote, 0.2% (1st). Markakis had his best years at 23 and 24 years old and then his production slowly decayed. But this decay was so gradual that it seemed like he had a chance to get to some truly remarkable career numbers [like 3000 hits] that might qualify him for the BHOF. But his gradual descent turned sudden all at once and ended his chances. It’s hard to simply stay competent and survive in Baseball. Eventually the void sucks you down. Career highs in WAR: 7.4-4.2-2.9-2.7-2.6-2.5 etc.
Gio Gonzalez [28.3]: 0 votes, 0.0% (1st). See Rick Porcello above. Gonzales was a good pitcher and once went 21-8. That was enough to get him on the 2026 BHOF ballot. By WAR, he had a better overall career than Porcello and also better career years. Career highs in WAR: 6.5-5.0-4.4-3.9-2.7 etc.
Howie Kendrick [35.0]: 0 votes, 0.0% (1st). Howie Kendrick always gave one the impression that he was a very nice guy who believed he was lucky to be there. He had a very good career but he was not a BHOF caliber player. But you get the sense that, if he only had some Ty Cobb or Barry Bonds type of competitive personality disorder, he might have been. Kendrick also goes down as one of those guys who went supernova right at the very end of his career [2019: 17 HRs, 62 RBI, .344 BA, .572 SA in 330 ABs]. His career highs in WAR: 6.1-4.6-3.6-3.1-2.9 etc.
Daniel Murphy [20.8]: 0 votes, 0.0% (1st). When he was 31 & 32 years old, Murphy certainly hit like a Hall of Famer (but evidently fielded like a little leaguer). But those were his only two years at that level. Career highs in WAR: 4.7-3.2-2.8-2.5-2.3 etc.
Part 3: Steve Garvey and the BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame vote
Steve Garvey: 1993/1st year-176 votes out of 423 cast for 41.6%; 1994/2nd-166-456 36.4%; 1995/3rd-196-460 42.6%; 1996/4th-175-470 37.2%; 1997/5th-167-473 35.3%; 1998/6th-195-473 41.2%; 1999-7th-150-497 30.2%; 2000/8th-160-499 32.1; 2001/9th-176-515 34.2%; 2002/10th-134-472 28.4%; 2003/11th-138-496 27.8%; 2004/12th-123-506 24.3%; 2005/13th-106-516 20.5%; 2006/ 14th-135-520 26.0%; and 2007/15th-115-545 21.1% in his very last year on the ballot.
1993: 10 of first 12 players on the ballot have eventually been elected, only Garvey #4 and Ken Boyer #10 have not.
1994: 12 of first 15 elected/Garvey 6~Boyer 12~Pinson 14. Ted Simmons, #26 on the 1994 Ballot, has been elected.
1995: 12 of first 15 elected/Garvey 5~John 11~Flood 14 not.
1996: 11 of first 17 elected/Garvey 4~John 9~Flood 12~Tiant 13~Concepcion 14~Pinson 16 not.
1997: 11 of first 13 elected/Garvey 6~John 10 not.
1998: 10 of first 13 elected/Garvey 6~John 9~Concepcion 12. In 1998, Don Sutton was elected in his 5th year on the ballot 1994-1998. Of course, Sutton and Garvey famously fought each other in the Dodger clubhouse. In the four years that they were on the ballot together [1-56.8% Sutton 5th/Garvey 6; 2-57.4%; 3-63.8%; 4-73.2%; 5-81.6%] 1994-1998
1999: 12 of first 15 elected/Garvey 7~Murphy 11~John 12. Nolan Ryan and Robin Yount came on the ballot togther in 1999. With more and more sure fire BHOF candidates coming on the ballot each year (and some not being electable because of steroid allegations), Garvey begins to lose ground.
2000: 10 of first 13 elected/Garvey 7~John 8~Murphy 10
2001: 10 of first 14 elected/Garvey 7~John 8~Mattingly 9~Murphy 13
2002: 10 of first 14 elected/Garvey 7~John 8~Mattingly 12~Tiant 13~Murphy 15
2003: 14 of first 18 elected/Garvey 10~John 12~Mattingly 15~Murphy 16~Concepcion 17
2004: 12 of first 16 elected/Garvey 11~John 12~Mattingly 14~Concepcion 15
2005: 11 of first 13 elected/John 10~Garvey 11 [Notes: Garvey falls behind Tommy John after polling better than him for years].
2006: 9 of first 11 elected/John 8~Garvey 9 the two guys never inducted
2007: 11 of first 17 elected/Mark McGwire 9~John 10~Garvey 11~Concepcion 12~Marttingly 15~Murphy 16 [In 2007, Cal Ripken & Tony Gwynn come on & were immediately elected. Harold Baines, who would later be elected by the VC, finished at #17.
Conclusion:
Having used up his entire 15 year alottment, Steve Garvey fell off the BHOF ballot after the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame election. During his time on the Ballot, Garvey finished with better totals at some point than the following 14 later inductees to the BHOF: Tony Oliva, Ron Santo, Jim Kaat, Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Joe Torre, Bruce Sutter, Ted Simmons, Jim Rice, Dave Parker, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, and Harold Baines. Garvey also finished with better totals than a number of players who seem to have a much better chance at future election, which would swell those numbers (such as Lou Whitaker, Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, and Tommy John).