The 2023 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame Election: A Bright Clear Line
Knowledge is the process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification – Martin H. Fischer
January 11, 2023
Introduction
On January 24th, 2023, the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) will announce their selection(s), if any, for induction into the Hall of Fame later in July. The ballot, which was released on November 11th, 2022, [presumably to build up some publicity before the coming announcement] has 28 players on it. Fourteen of these players are holdovers from previous elections and 14 others are new to the ballot [which makes for a nice balanced lineup]. Any of the 28 players getting less than 5% of the vote will be thrown off the BBWAA Hall of Fame bus [metaphorically speaking] and will not be listed on the 2024 ballot. This is all pretty straightforward, but also tediously boring. For several years now, there has been a Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker which analyzes any and all published Hall of Fame ballots before the big day. For all intents and purposes, any mystery of who may join Fred McGriff [already voted in by the Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee] on the podium in July of 2023 is already over. Scott Rolen is probably the only candidate that has any real chance of being elected by the BBWAA this year. The Hall of Fame Tracker [compiled by Ryan Thibodaux] has reduced the suspense of the 2023 Hall of Fame election to the simple question of: Will Scott Rolen make it?
Who Actually Should be Elected by the BBWAA in 2023?
The Hall of Fame Lowest Common Denominator System (LCDS) holds that any players elected should have accrued more career bWAR (Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement formula) than the 244th best eligible player for the Hall of Fame.* In other words, a Hall of Fame player should have accumulated more than 52.7 bWAR [the total accumulated by Hall of Famer Elmer Flick and non-Hall of Famer Babe Adams, both tied at #243]. Using this bWAR number as the baseline, the LCDS 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot would be: 1) Scott Rolen 70.1 bWAR; 2) Andruw Jones 62.7; 3) Todd Helton 61.8; 4) Gary Sheffield 60.5, 5) Bobby Abreu 60.2, 6) Andy Pettitte 60.2, 7) Mark Buerhle 59.1, and 8) Jeff Kent 55.4. Under the LCDS system, Torii Hunter [50.7] and Jimmy Rollins [47.6] just miss the ballot; but would have been Hall of Fame worthy with one more good year. Alex Rodriguez, who finished his all-time great career with 117.6 bWAR, is not considered eligible despite currently being on the ballot. Along with Manny Ramirez [69.3 BWAR], Rodriguez is ineligible for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame due to his suspension for taking steroids during his career. There is no reason for allowing either man to twist in the wind for ten years as the BBWAA is doing. A-Rod’s eventual banishment into steroid limbo is ensured when he inevitably falls off the ballot in 8 years. Ramirez, the other steroid casualty, has 3 years to go. Any review of the steroid ineligible should start with players who were not suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs during their careers [with Mark McGwire at the front of the line]. There is another player, currently getting strong support for the Hall, who is absent from the above list: superstar reliever Billy Wagner. Unfortunately, bWAR may not be the best tool to measure the contributions of a relief ace like Wagner. He only accumulated 27.7 bWAR in his career. Only by virtually doubling his bWAR total does Wagner qualify under LCDS. The BBWAA will almost surely, absent some horrible intervening scandal, elect him quite soon anyways.
*For a better explanation of the LSDS, please see Post #22. There are currently 241 (non-Negro League) Hall of Fame players elected to the Hall of Fame plus 3 more who were elected as executives but who would have qualified as players.
The Hall of Fame Tracker at this very Moment [1-11-23]
Right now the Hall of Fame tracker has collected 154 ballots [Usually there are just under 400 ballots cast].* With 75% of the total votes needed for election, the current count for the top 10 is: 1) Scott Rolen 81.2% [63.2% last year], 2) Todd Helton 79.9% [52.0%], 3) Billy Wagner 73.2% [51.0%], 4) Andruw Jones 69.8% [41.1%], 5) Gary Sheffield 66.4 [40.6%], 6) Carlos Beltran 57.7% [1st year on the ballot], 7) Jeff Kent 50.3% [32.7%], 8) Alex Rodriguez 43.0% [34.3%] and his running mate 9) Manny Ramirez 40.9% [28.9%], and lastly 10) Bob Abreu 20.1% [8.6%]. Unless history is reversed, these percentages will fade away as the ballots from the more neanderthal BBWAA writers are finally counted (the members who refuse to publish their ballots and are unaccountable for their often strange votes). Rolen may be able to hang on and be elected this year. Todd Helton, the only other player currently above the 75% threshold, does not seem to be high enough to fend off the inevitable ebb. But he certainly seems primed to be elected in 2024. It would help Helton if Rolen goes in this year, clearing the path for him. The probably unavoidable elections of Jones & Wagner seem to be on track too. Sheffield, despite his tangential steroid taint, & Carlos Beltran, despite his involvement in the 2017-18 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, also seem to be on track for eventual induction. Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, the convicted steroid pair, are both treading water and waiting for their eventual dismissal from the ballot. Jeff Kent, in his 10th and final year on the ballot, will be getting his dismissal this year. He will have to wait for the Veterans Committee to eventually honor him. There are 2 other players [in addition to Kent and Abreu] who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame by the LCDS system: Andy Pettite 18.8% [10.7%] & Mark Buerhle 10.1% [5.8%]. Both men will surely live to see another ballot but the prognosis for their eventual election by the BBWAA seems grim.
*Apparently 140 published and attributed to a specific eligible Baseball Hall of Fame voter plus 14 more ballots that are unattributed.
A Question of Discussing Progress
In general, the Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker has changed the discussion from: Who will get elected? to Who is making good progress towards being elected? Usually, players go on the ballot, their candidacy gets considered, and then (if they are worthy) their vote totals rise until they are elected. Scott Rolen, Todd Helton*, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, and Gary Sheffield are currently making good progress and will eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame. Also, Carlos Beltran is doing so well in his first year that his election is inevitable. There is one very unusual 2023 candidacy. Omar Vizquel’s Hall of Fame vote totals are regressing, not progressing. In 2020, Vizquel’s election was all but inevitable. He had reached 52.6% in only his third year on the ballot (after starting with 37.0% in his first year), despite an underwhelming career total of 45.6 bWAR. But, as the 2021 ballots rolled in, he got accused of domestic violence against his wife and sexual harassment of an (autistic) bat boy. The double whammy of this bad publicity hurt his 2021 vote total a little [49.1%]. Then completely crashed it in 2022 [23.9%] like a plane hitting a mountainside. This freefall is continuing in 2023. His current vote total is a mere 8.7% (and sliding down). At this rate, he will fall off the BBWAA ballot either this year or in 2024. Three other players (Jeff Kent, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez) are just treading water until they fall off the Ballot. There are five more players (Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Buehrle, and Francisco Rodriguez) who are all waiting around at the bottom of the ballot, hoping their Hall of Fame cases catch fire. Abreu, Pettitte and Buehrle are all qualified under the LCDS to be in the Hall and Rollins is close. Francisco Rodriguez, who like Beltran is in his first year on the ballot, was an ace reliever like Wagner. If his bWAR [24.2] is doubled, Francisco Rodriguez still doesn’t qualify under the LCDS. Despite all this, it is probable that his candidacy will survive to see next year. If it does, there is a good chance that he will begin to make some progress.
*The election of both Rolen and Helton, who would then join McGriff in the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame class, would obviously be the best outcome for the Hall of Fame itself by giving it three, rather than just two, players to honor on July 23, 2023.
The Other Guys On and Off the Ballot
Other than the 15 players mentioned in the above paragraph, there are 13 other players on the 2023 BBWAA ballot. Twelve of these guys are first-time candidates like Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez. None of these twelve players are going to survive to see the 2024 Ballot. In fact, none of them has even received a single vote so far (with 140 votes currently counted). This is not surprising considering that pitcher John Lackey has the most career bWAR [37.3] of the 12 players. They will all be one and done on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Despite this, all 12 guys were fine players: Lackey; Jered Weaver; Jacoby Ellsbury; Jhonny Peralta; Jayson Werth; Matt Cain; J.J. Hardy; the great Mike Napoli; R.A. Dickey; Bronson Arroyo; Andre Ethier; and relief ace Huston Street. A very good team could be made from these players in their primes. Probably the greatest “Could Have Been A Contender” for the Baseball Hall of Fame out of these 12 candidates would be Jacoby Ellsbury. Presently, Ellsbury is mostly remembered as a bitter disappointment by New York Yankee fans. He signed a 7 year/153 million dollar contract in 2013 but never lived up to it. However, his career was derailed and eventually destroyed by near constant injuries. The one year that Ellsbury was totally uninjured and in his prime was stunning. In 2011, he scored 119 times, hit 32 HRs, drove in 105 runs, batted .321, and stole 39 bases (finishing 2nd to Justin Verlander in the MVP race). It was a fantastic season. A few more like it would have given Jacoby Ellsbury a very strong Hall of Fame case.* Of course, this leaves one player on the Ballot undiscussed. That would be outfielder Torii Hunter [career bWAR of 50.7]. In 2021, his first year on the BBWAA ballot, Hunter received 10.5% of the vote. In 2022, he was down to 5.3%. Currently, in 2023, Hunter has only 2.0% of the vote. Evidently, the BBWAA voters have decided that 3 years on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, but not one more, is enough to honor Torii Hunter.
*After a great 33 game trial in 2007, Ellsbury started his career with two very promising seasons in 2008 & 2009 [3.0 and then 2.8 bWAR]. He was injured basically all season long in 2010. He had his monster season in 2011 [bWAR of 8.3]. A shoulder injury destroyed his 2012 season. He then returned with no power in 2013 [5.8 bWAR]; but got some back in 2014 [3.6 bWAR with 16 HRs]. After a good start to 2015 (.324 BA in 37 games), injuries called off the rest of his career [2015-2019]. He didn’t even play in 2018 or 2019 as the injuries ate what was left of his talent.
A Bright Clear Line
The Lowest Common Denominator System [LCDS] for deciding if a Baseball player is worthy of the Hall of Fame contains an assumption that the Hall of Fame has already elected and inducted the correct number of players [244 to be exact right now]. The only difference is that the LCDS gives a very different answer to who actually belongs. Most baseball fans would agree that the Hall of Fame has done, at times, a pretty shoddy job of selecting its new members. Many baseball writers like to argue that the Hall has elected too many players. Others argue that the Hall of Fame has elected too few. But maybe we should just throw the baby & the bath water out the window and start over? It seems like a bright clear line [ABCL] for electing a player to the Baseball Hall of Fame could be set at 50.0 or more total bWAR during their career. Since the player must play 10 seasons to even qualify for election, this would mean that the potential Hall of Famer would need to average 5.0 bWAR per year for 10 years to get in (5.0 bWAR basically represents an All-Star-type season). This seems reasonable. Perhaps we could even name these types of seasons. Above 5.0 bWAR would be a “Kong.” Above 7.5 bWAR (a MVP-type season) would be a “King Kong.” In honor of Hideki Matsui & Aaron Judge, a season 10.0 bWAR or above would be a “Godzilla.” There are currently 278 Baseball players who are eligible for the Hall of Fame with 50.0 or more career bWAR. This is only a slight increase from the 244 who are currently enrolled. It has the advantage over the LCDS system of being an immovable and fixed line. It will not shift, like LCDS, after the results of future elections. From this point on, the ABCL will be used as the starting point for any Baseball Hall of Fame discussions in this blog.
The 2023 BBWAA Ballot
Using the ABCL, this blog’s uncounted and disregarded ballot for the BBWAA 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame election goes: 1) Scott Rolen; 2) Andruw Jones; 3) Todd Helton; 4) Gary Sheffield; 5) Bobby Abreu; 6) Andy Pettitte; 7) Mark “The Burley” Buerhle; 8) Jeff Kent; and 9) Torii Hunter. With undeniable proof that a relief ace is actually worth twice as much as other players, Billy Wagner would be tied with Jeff Kent at 8th, pushing Hunter down to 10th. But that proof has not been forthcoming yet.
Coming Later: Addendum #1
Relief Pitchers and the Hall of Fame.
Coming even later: Addendum #2
Kongs, King Kongs & Godzillas
Addendum #3
The 28 Players [listed by bWAR] on the 2023 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot [14 players held over from 2022 Ballot and 14 new players, who are marked with a + sign]:
1) Alex Rodriguez the doomed 117.6; 2t) Carlos Beltran 70.1+; 2t) Scott Rolen 70.1; 4) Manny Ramirez 69.3; 5) Andruw Jones 62.7; 6) Todd Helton 61.8; 7) Gary Sheffield 60.5; 8t) Bobby Abreu 60.2; 8t) Andy Pettitte 60.2; 10) Mark Buehrle 59.1; 11) Jeff Kent 55.4; 12) Torii Hunter 50.7; 13) Jimmy Rollins 47.6; 14) Omar Vizquel 45.6; 15) John Lackey 37.3+; 16) Jered Weaver 34.6+; 17) Jacoby Ellsbury 31.2+; 18) Jhonny Peralta 30.4+; 19) Jayson Werth 29.2+; 20) Matt Cain 29.1+; 21) J.J. Hardy 28.1+; 22) Billy Wagner 27.7; 23) Mike Napoli 26.3+; 24) Francisco Rodriguez 24.2+; 25) R.A. Dickey 23.7+; 26) Bronson Arroyo 23.4+; 27) Andre Ethier 21.5+; and 28) Huston Street 14.5+.
The 36 Players [listed by bWAR] who qualified for the 2023 BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot (10 years of service); but were excluded from the ballot by a secret Hall of Fame Committee:
1) Yunel Escobar 26.8; 2) Aaron Hill 24.4; 3) Erick Aybar 22.8; 4) Carlos Ruiz 22.5; 5) Ubaldo Jiminez 20.4; 6) Jeremy Guthrie 18.4; 7) Franklin Gutierrez 18.2; 8) Joaquin Benoit 17.9; 9) Chris Young 17.5; 10) Stephen Drew 15.9; 11) Ricky Nolasco 13.4; 12) Adam Lind 12.7; 13) Matt Garza 12.5; 14) Geovany Soto 12.0; 15) Joe Blanton 11.8; 16) Seth Smith 11.6; 17) Rickie Weeks 11.5; 18) Ryan Hanigan 9.2; 19) Glen Perkins 8.9; 20) Jonathan Broxton 8.7; 21) Scott Feldman 7.9; 22) J.P. Howell 7.8; 23) Alejandro De Aza 7.2; 24) Craig Breslow 6.2; 25t) Mike Pelfrey 5.8; 25t) Chad Qualls 5.8; 27) Mike Aviles 5.7; 28) Brandon Moss 5.0; 29) Jason Grilli 4.6; 30) Kyle Kendrick 4.6; 31) Michael Morse 4.0; 32) Edward Mujica 3.9; 33) Eric O’Flaherty 3.8; 34) Ryan Raburn 3.3, 35t) Andres Blanco 1.6; and lastly 35t) Dustin McGowan 1.6.
Yunel Escobar and Aaron Hill may have a complaint here. Why R.A. Dickey or Bronson Arroyo or Huston Street on the ballot but not them? One wonders whether pitching in the thin Colorado air ruined the career of Ubaldo Jiminez. How much harder did he have to torque his arm to impart spin there? Rickie Weeks is probably, without really checking, the most disappointing player in this group. The second player taken in the 2003 June amateur draft (after the even more disappointing Delmon Young), Weeks seemed to have the talent to be a much bigger star than he turned out to be.
Interestingly, a total of 50 players who retired in 2017 qualified for the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot after waiting the required 5 years after the end of their careers. Fourteen were placed on the ballot itself and the other 36 were then excluded by a Hall of Fame Ballot Committee. A question for yet another day would be: What is the normal number of players that qualify to be on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot each year? Were the 50 qualified players in 2023 an abnormal number of guys to qualify? What would be the normal range? If not normal in 2023, is it more or less?