2023 Franchise Review [Number 1]: Los Angeles Dodgers (2022 Record: 111-51)
January 25, 2023
One of these things is not like the others. One of these things just doesn’t belong – Jay Asher
Part A: The Unique 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers
A common cognitive puzzle is to pick out what makes something in a series different from all the other selections. For example, which of these 4 states does not belong in this list: Alaska, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Ohio? Two obvious answers would be: 1) Alaska because it is not part of the Continental United States or 2) Connecticut because it does not end with a consonant like the other choices. The 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers, who won 111 games and lost only 51, are an example of this type of mental enigma. The 111 victories are tied for 4th on the all-time list with the 1954 Cleveland Indians [111-43]. Since Major League Baseball began in 1871, only 3 teams have ever won more games in a single season: the 1906 Chicago Cubs [116-36]; the 2001 Seattle Mariners [116-46]; and the 1998 New York Yankees [114-48]. Of course, there are quite a few other teams that have come close to 111 victories in a season: the 1909 Pittsburgh Pirates [110-42]; the 1927 New York Yankees [110-44]; the 1961 New York Yankees [109-53]; the 1969 Baltimore Orioles [109-53]; and the 1970 Baltimore Orioles, the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, the 1986 New York Mets, & the 2018 Boston Red Sox [all with a 108-54 record]. Another five teams have won 107 games [including the 2019 Houston Astros & the 2021 San Francisco Giants], seven more won 106 [including the 2019 & 2021 Los Angles Dodgers plus the 2022 Houston Astros], and yet another 5 finished with 105 triumphs. So what makes this 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers team so different from all the other super-teams that won well in excess of 100 games during a season?
The 2019-2022 Los Angeles Dodgers Super-Team Streak
For one thing, the 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers club went 106-56. In the entire history of the Major Leagues, no team has ever won that many games in one season and then improved in the next. But the 2022 Dodgers did, going 111-51, and improving by 5 whole games. More interestingly, it could be argued that these Dodgers were the only 100+ wins super-team that was just having a regular year. The Dodgers won 106 games in 2019 and 2021. In the Co-vid pandemic shortened 2020 season, the Dodgers went 43-17. At that pace, the 2020 Dodgers would have finished with a 116-46 record. In other words, the Dodgers, from 2019 to 2022, could have finished with 106-116-106-111 wins. The Dodger’s great 2022 season of 111 wins may not have been a peak year at all. It could have been just a fluctuation in the team’s normal talent level. The 2022 Los Angles Dodgers, with just a little luck, could have been an even better team than they were. Trevor Bauer, arguably the team’s best pitcher, was suspended for the entire 2022 season after his predilection for beating up women was revealed. Walker Buehler, probably the team’s 2nd best pitcher, did not pitch up to his 2021 standard. His 2022 season ended on June 10th with a sore elbow that resulted in his 2nd Tommy John surgery. Buehler will not return until 2024. Several regulars had off-years. Max Muncy fell from 36-94-.249-.527 (HR-RBI-BA-SA) to 21-69-.196-.384. Chris Taylor went from 20-73-.254-.438 to 10-43-.221-.373. Justin Turner went from 27-87-.278-.471 to 13-81-.278-.431. No player had a career year. The 2022 Dodgers did add the excellent Freddie Freeman and serviceable closer Craig Kimbrel as free agents. But they also lost Corey Seager and even better closer Kenley Jansen to free agency. On the bright side, center fielder Cody Bellinger went from brutally awful with the bat in 2021 to just terrible in 2022; and Mookie Betts was, once again, Mookie Betts. So why were the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers five games better than their 2021 team?
Probably the best answer to that question is that a bunch of arbitrary pitchers (Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin, and Andrew Heaney) performed much better than expected. But this was just random luck. The 2022 Dodgers, as a whole, were no better than their 2021 squad. Every other 100+ win super-team was surely peaking (possibly excepting the 1969-1970 Baltimore Orioles). Perhaps the best historical comparison for the 2019-2022 Los Angeles Dodgers super-team run is the 1906-1910 Chicago Cubs.* From 1902-1905, the Cubs steadily improved with 68-69, 82-56, 93-60, and 92-61 records [the Dodgers went 92-70 in 2018 but had won 90 or more games every year from 2013-2018 with a peak 104 win year in 2017]. The Cubs improvement could be traced directly to Frank Selee, their manager [elected to the Hall of Fame in 1999]. Hired in 1902, the no-nonsense Selee led the Cubs until stepping down due to illness during the 1905 season [and passed away in 1909]. Frank Chance, the Cubs star first baseman, replaced Selee as the manager. The 1905 Cubs performed better under their new manager, and then exploded on the National League in 1906 with a 116-36 record. The primary factors behind the increase from 92 victories in 1905 to 116 wins in 1906 were: 1) the maturation of Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown into a superstar; 2) a deep pitching staff that got even better; 3) the acquisition of two stars, Harry Steinfeldt and Jimmy Sheckard; 4) career years from Frank Chance and new acquisition Steinfeldt; and 5) great or good years from everyone else. After their 1906 peak, the Cubs remained an excellent team from 1907-1910: finishing 107-45, 99-55, 104-49, and 104-50. Then the Cubs, from 1911 to 1915, began a slow decline towards mediocrity (92-62, 91-59, 88-65, 78-76, and 73-80). Will the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers team fall off this same precipice, or will they be able to continue to win 100 or more games per season?
*If they had won 116 games in 2020, the LA Dodgers would hold the record for most victories over four seasons with 439. Without really checking, the second best total would almost surely have been the 1906-1909 Cubs with 426 wins.
Rebuilding on the Fly
For the 2023 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are attempting to rebuild their club on the fly. They released the repellent Trevor Bauer, despite having him under contract for 2023, while still owing him over 22 million dollars. The club replaced star free agent shortstop Trea Turner with the stopgap Miguel Rojas. They let the struggling Cody Bellinger and aging Justin Turner leave; and then signed the aging and struggling J.D. Martinez. The Dodger’s two lottery ticket winner pitchers, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, cashed in their winnings by signing elsewhere. Craig Kimbrel and Chris Martin were allowed to wander off. The Dodgers practiced addition by subtraction by letting David Price and Joey Gallo go. In the end, nine 2022 Los Angeles Dodger pitchers and players signed contracts worth over 10+ million dollars annually with other teams for the 2023 season. The Dodgers did resign their long-time ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw and purchased two new lottery ticket pitchers, Noah Syndergaard & Shelby Miller. And the club has stated that it wants to let some rookies have an opportunity to shine. Of course, this will help the 2023 Dodgers get under the luxury tax threshold and reset the penalties to a lower level for when they once again violate it (if they ever do). If all goes right and the team peaks, the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers could win 100 or more games again: Mookie Betts has an MVP season; Gavin Lux becomes a star player; Max Muncy bombs 40 home runs; Freddie Freeman continues to be himself; Will Smith has a career year; Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller punch their own lottery tickets, etc. etc. But the much more likely scenario is that some players have good years and other players do not. It looks the Dodger super-team streak will reset.
2023 Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction: 90-95 wins [not bad for a reset].
Part B: Where is the Big Bopper?
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ franchise has never had a player hit 50 (or more) home runs in a season. Of course, many teams can claim this dubious honor. But the Dodgers are the National league equivalent of the New York Yankees and they used to play in a bandbox named Ebbets Field.* The Yankees have, of course, had multiple players whack 50 plus home runs in a single year. The very first Dodger to hit 40 home runs was Gil Hodges in 1951 (with exactly 40, breaking Babe Herman’s 1930 team record of 35). Hodges was one of three Boys of Summer Brooklyn Dodgers to hit more than 40 in a season before the club moved to Los Angeles [Hodges: 40 in 1951 & 42 in 1954; Duke Snider: 42 in 1953, 40 in 1954, 42 in 1955, 43 in 1956, and then 40 more in 1957; and the great catcher Roy Campanella with 41 in 1953]. Snider’s 43 home run in 1956 remained the club record for a very long time. In 1997, Mike Piazza hit exactly 40 bombs to become the first Dodger to reach that threshold since the 1950s. Then, in 2000, the great but peripatetic slugger Gary Sheffield tied the Dodger record with 43 taters of his own. The very next year, 2001 the long & lanky Shawn Green crushed 49 home runs to break the record. Green followed up with 42 more HRs in 2002 before shoulder issues robbed him of his power. In 2004, Adrian Beltre, having an enormous fluke season, bashed 48 home runs, just falling short of tying Green’s record or even becoming the first Dodger to reach 50 homers. It certainly seemed that the Dodgers would finally get their 50 HR hitter when Cody Bellinger arrived. In 2017, he hit 39 HRs as a 21-year-old rookie. In 2018, he slumped to just 25 Homers. Then Bellinger, now 23-years-old, crushed 47 Home runs, the third most ever hit be a Dodger. Cody seemed sure to eventually break the record. Unfortunately, Bellinger’s career was derailed by shoulder issues, just like Shawn Green (oddly, both men were long & lanky as players). From 2020 to 2022, Bellinger could not even crack 20 home runs in any given year. The Dodgers have finally given up on him, let him go as a free agent. A Dodger hitting 50 HRs in a year will have to wait a while longer.
*Fans of the St. Louis Cardinals may claim, with some justification, to be the National League’s version of the New York Yankees (and their seasonal home run record is, of course, held by Mark McGwire with 70.)
Of course, if history had flowed down a different channel, the Dodgers may have already had a slugger who could have hit 50+ homers for them. From 1958 to 1964, Frank Howard played for the Dodgers. Listed at 6 feet 7 inches tall and 255 pounds, Howard was the Aaron Judge of his time. Playing in the pitching dominated and offensively starved 1960s, Howard played his career at an awful time to hit. The Dodgers, showing no faith in Howard, platooned him from 1960-1964 and then simply traded him away. The Dodger parks did Howard no favors either (from 1958-1964, he hit 55 home HRs versus 68 road HRs). With the Washington Senators, Frank Howard came into his own at last from 1968 to 1970 and hit 44, 48 and 44 home runs before age (he turned 32 in August 1968) and injuries washed his career away. If he had played for the Dodgers in the high-octane 1990s (and not been platooned), Howard would have possibly hit at least 50 home runs six times or more. In context, he was probably the most gifted HR hitter that the Dodgers ever had. Unfortunately, the Dodgers recently had a player under contract who could have given big Frank a tussle for that title. In June of 2016, the Dodgers signed a tall skinny, almost 19-years-old, Cuban refugee named Yordan Alvarez for over 2 million dollars. Two weeks after signing Alvarez, the Dodgers traded him away for a middling Major League relief pitcher to the Houston Astros. Why wasn’t the Astros interest in Alvarez not some sort of indication to the Dodgers that they should have looked twice at Alvarez before trading him? It simply seems very odd. If his knees hold up, it is now very likely that the 6 foot 5 inch and 250 pound Yordan Alvarez will hit 50 or more HRs relatively soon. Meanwhile, the Dodgers still wait patiently for their 50 HR man.
Note: This post was the first of 30 individual team post (in order of 2022 winning percentage) to practice writing shorter blog posts. In that sense, it was an abject failure. Hopefully, practice will make perfect eventually.