2023-2024 Franchise Review Wrap-Up
December 16, 2023
Though no one can go back and make a brand new start, anyone can start from now and make a brand new ending. Carl Bard
Introduction
This Post will basically wrap up the series of franchise reviews and essays that I attempted in 2023. The teams are listed in order of their 2023 records despite the fact that they were originally being done in order of their 2022 records.
1. Atlanta Braves [2021 World Champions]
2021 Record: 88-73; 2022 Record: 101-61; 2023 Record: 104-58 [First Half: 54-27; Second Half 50-31].
Comment: The Atlanta Braves’ regular season juggernaut continues to roll. The Braves have signed virtually their entire core of young stars (except for Max Fried) to long term contracts. Now they are playing with house money, so to speak. Their first move in the 2024 off-season was quite brilliant. They declined their option to resign 32-year-old left fielder Eddie Rosario, who was their least valuable regular. Then they traded for 24-year-old Jarred Kelenic, a tarnished outfield prospect who has possibly significant upside. Along with Vaughn Grissom, a 22-year-old second baseman who the Braves plan to try in the outfield, this gives them two good options to replace Rosario. Basically, if they had just one more front line starting pitcher, the Braves would be scary good. Even without that ace, the Braves are almost, baring catastrophe, sure to win 100+ games in 2024. With yet another ace, the Braves would have to be the overwhelming favorites to win the 2024 World Series. The only thing that can derail the Braves is probably jealousy. Sooner or later, one or some of the Braves’ players is/are going to get upset about how underpaid they are. Ronald Acuna Jr., who is worth 40 or more million dollars a year on the open market, is getting 17 million dollars a year……..for the next five straight years (assuming the Braves pick up the team options in 2027 and 2028. Sooner or later, that has got to burn. Success Cycle Position: Holding at the Top.
Published Essay [Post# 29; 3rd of 4 actually posted]: How intelligent was the Atlanta Braves decision to tie up their core players long term way before they (hopefully) reach their prime? The conclusion was that it was extremely smart, which seems self-evident.
2. Baltimore Orioles
2021 Record: 52-110; 2022 Record: 83-79; 2023 Record: 101-61 [First Half: 48-33; Second Half: 53-28]
Comment: With Jackson Holliday being added to the Orioles’ collection of young talent, the Orioles are probably not returning to the second division any time soon. The Orioles may be a much better team in 2024 [with another year of experience for their core & the return of John Means to their pitching staff] but still come nowhere close to their 101 win total in 2023. In 2023, the Birdos went 30-16 in games decided by one run and 11-6 in extra innings. The team’s expected record was just 95-67 (which is still pretty good). But it is not hard to envision the team being even better (pitchers John Means and Grayson Rodriguez step up and shortstop Holliday delivers immediately). If it happens, the club could win 90-100 games and, depending on luck, still have improved over 2023. The young Orioles seem to be a very likeable team; it is unfortunate that their owner, technically Peter Angelos but in reality his nepo son John Angelos, seems to be a complete douchebag. In the middle of the Orioles’ breakout year, he decided to shake down the city of Baltimore for a new Stadium/Retail area and lied that he would not be able to pay all these suddenly successful players. Hopefully the City of Baltimore tells this jerkwad to go pound sand. Success Cycle Position: Still rising to the top despite 101 wins.
Unpublished Essay: Is Adley Rustchman the most likely future Hall of Famer from the current Major League catching corps? Where have all the Johnny Bench type catchers gone?
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 Record: 106-56; 2022 Record: 111-51; 2023 Record: 100-62 [First Half: 46-35; Second Half: 54-27].
Comment: Can the Los Angeles Dodger’s streak of 100 win seasons survive the complete decimation of their pitching staff? Is this the curse of Trevor Bauer? Has any MLB team ever basically lost their complete starting core to injury (or other circumstances) during a single season? It is a miracle that the Dodgers still won 100 games (on the nose). In fact, they had the best second half record in 2023; before collapsing in the play-offs. It was like watching a winded marathon runner fall down with the finish tape in sight. Interestingly, the Dodgers’ entire 2023-2024 off-season seems predicated on whether the great pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani will end up doing what seems like the most completely logical thing to do: sign with the crosstown Dodgers, sticking it to the doomed Los Angeles Angels, while maintaining Ohtani’s easiest access to his motherland, Japan. It seems to make way too much sense to not happen, except for the fact that the Dodgers desperately need pitching and Shohei cannot throw the ball in anger again until 2025. Will the Dodgers become the first team to win at least 100 games in a season four straight years? The odds right now have to be a quite a bit less than 50/50 for another 100 victory year. Success Cycle Position: Trying to fight off the downward slide from the Top.
*After writing this part of the post, Shohei Ohtani did sign with the LA Dodgers on December 9, 2023. Their position on the Success Cycle is officially upgraded to: Trying to get through 2024 until returning to the Top of the Cycle.
Published Essay [Post #25; 1st of 4 already posted]: An essay in 2 parts about the Dodgers; Part #1 -The history of Super Teams or will the Dodgers be the firs team to win 100 or more games in 4 straight seasons; and Part #2 – When will a LA Dodger hit 50 home runs in a season.*
*If life is good, Shohei Ohtani will almost certainly become the first Dodger to hit 50 HRs.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
2021 Record: 100-62; 2022 Record: 86-76; 2023 Record: 99-63 [First Half: 54-27; Second Half: 45-36].
Comment: One has to wonder how much longer the Tampa Bay Rays team can continue to defy gravity and usually field a winning team. From 2008 to 2013,* the Rays finished above .500 [after starting their team history with 10 straight losing seasons from1998 to 2007]. Then Tampa Bay fielded 4 more losers from 2014 to 2017 [though twice finishing just 80-82]. Currently, the Rays are on another six consecutive years winning streak [2018-2023]. They are definitely a smarter organization than most of the other Major League teams. But the Rays are not the Dodgers or Yankees. The Rays do not have the financial resources to buy top-of-the-line free agents or cover over their mistakes. The brain drain out of the Tampa front office is almost constant (of course the Dodgers are run by a Ray Alumni). Sooner or later, it seems that the organization will make a misstep and the club will crash down. Perhaps the current Wander Franco debacle is the warning bell for the end of this near constant success cycle? One of the odder stories of 2023 was the Tampa Bay Rays announcing that they were going to stay put and build a new stadium & entertainment area right where they are in St. Petersburg (following the very successful models of the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, and other teams). But this came after years and years of saying that their present stadium site was completely hopeless and they needed to move. The lesson seems to be that no one should ever believe a single thing a Major League club says when they are trying to get hundreds of millions of dollars gifted to them by their local government. Success Cycle Position: Teetering on the edge of a downhill crash.
*Curiously, the Rays first winning season, 2008, coincided with dropping the Devil from their team name, becoming just the Rays rather than Devil Rays.
Unpublished Essay: The usually sad history of the modern practice of signing young players with very little to no Major League service time to a long-term contract [or was signing the Wander Franco a mistake?].
5. Milwaukee Brewers
2021 Record: 95-67; 2022 Record: 86-76; 2023 Record: 92-70 [First Half: 43-38; Second Half: 49-32.
Comment: Bud Selig, owner of the Milwaukee Brewers from 1970 to 2004, usually maintained that the Milwaukee team could not compete because of the way Baseball’s finances were structured. Rather than figure out a way to run the Brewers so that they could compete, Selig became the Commissioner and reorganized the economic structure of the Major Leagues so that: 1) any poorly run team could be profitable without even competing; and/or 2) any team that was efficiently run could at the very least compete with a boom or bust strategy [i.e. building up a strong core to compete and then tearing the core down when it aged out of being competitive]. Mark Attanasio, the man who succeeded Selig as the Brewer owner, has played this game pretty well. His team has usually had a winning record [11 seasons over .500, 7 seasons under .500, and 1 season of 81-81]. Does he still send Selig thank you cards? At the present, it would most probably be best for the Milwaukee Brewers to go into a rebuilding phase. Every really good team needs to be built on the backs of a few superstars. Milwaukee’s two best players, Christian Yelich and Corbin Burnes, are both no longer building blocks for the Brewers. It is very unlikely that Yelich will ever regain his 2018-2019 MVP form; and Burnes will be a free agent in 2025 and the chances that he resigns with the Brewers are slim and none. Success Cycle Position: Obviously on the Downhill slope, do they try a soft reboot or a full rebuild?
Unpublished Essay: Was part of Bud Selig’s legacy the complete erasure of Anti-Semitism in Baseball (well, maybe not complete as Anti-Semitism always seems to be lurking)? In other news, Baseball has gone Hollywood.
6t. Houston Astros [2022 World Champions]
2021 Record: 95-67; 2022 Record: 106-56; 2023 Record: 90-72 [First Half: 44-37; Second Half: 46-35].
Comment: The Astros made a spirited try at defending their crown but finally lost to the eventual Champion Texas Rangers. Will this be the true beginning of a New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox or Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants franchise blood feud? Probably not. The Rangers still seem to be on the way up while the Astros are probably on the way down. But Astro owner Jim Crane will surely try to gear his Astros up for yet another run for the Roses in 2024. Jose Altuve [34 in 2024] and Alex Bregman [30] are in the last years of their contracts. Jose Abreu [37 in 2024] and Justin Verlander [41 in 2024] are past their expiration date. But, even if all these players leave or retire, the Astros will still have a formidable hitting core [Jordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker & Yanier Diaz] going forward. Of course, much of whether the eventual rebuild and reset will simply rely on pitcher attrition. The great pitching staff of the 2022 World Champions broke down quite a bit in 2023. Christian Javier was no longer an ace; Framber Valdez lost his mojo mid-season after throwing his no-hitter; and the relief pitchers were no longer the it’s lights out crew of the previous year. It will also be interesting to see if the retirement of Dusty Baker has any noticeable effect in 2024. Whether it does or not, the fact that the Astro’s 2022 World Championship propelled Johnnie B. Baker into the Hall of Fame without any question marks will still stand. One last thing (simply from a Baseball fans’ perspective), it would be wonderful if Yordan Alvarez [27 in 2024] could play a full season uninjured. Success Cycle Position: Orbit slowly decaying, atmospheric reentry imminent, eventual soft landing or complete crash coming, but which is debatable.
Published Essay [Post#28; 2nd of 4 actually posted]: What kind of writer puts three different subjects (1. Astros’ Corporate culture, 2. Hall of Fame chances of Jose Abreau, and 3. Dusty Baker’s Clubhouse influence) into what was just supposed to be a short essay?
6t. Philadelphia Phillies
2021 Record: 82-80; 2022 Record: 87-75; 2023 Record: 90-72 [First Half: 43-38; Second Half: 47-34].
Comment: If there is a God in Heaven, the Los Angeles Angels will trade Mike Trout to the Philadelphia Phillies. And then Trout will sip from the elixir of life and once again begin playing 150 games or so per season, bringing multiple Championships to Philadelphia [Trout grew up in the New Jersey suburbs of the Philadelphia metropolitan area]. Trout or no Trout, Dave Drombowski will probably find a way to eventually bring a World Championship to the Phillies. In some ways, he is the most interesting General Manager in the Game. He has a vision of the type of position players that he wants, the type of pitching staff that he wants to build, and a single minded focus on building the team without worrying too much about making mistakes. Drombrowski will keep throwing shit against the wall until it sticks. It remains to be seen whether one of the odder news stories of the off-season have any effect on the team chemistry. That would be Bryce Harper’s odd bitching and moaning about his contract status. Harper has obviously had second thoughts about his strange signing of an extremely long contract with no opt-outs that right now seems to undervalue his services substantially. Of course, if his career ends today or tomorrow, there will be no give backs to the Phillies either. One wonders who does his publicity? Better that those complaints were lodged privately, not publicly. The Phillies, at least, seemed to have done the intelligent thing and simply ignored them. Success Cycle Position: Still bubbling under the Top, waiting for the magic to strike.
Unpublished Essay: Has Dave Drombrowski outsmarted the the philosophy of Moneyball; or is he simply applying it (seeking undervalued assets) in his own way (or is it just that nobody can really value defense correctly)?
6t. Texas Rangers [2023 World Champions]
2021 Record: 60-102; 2022 Record: 68-94; 2023 Record: 90-72 [First Half: 49-32; Second Half: 41-40].
Comment: The 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers had their season unfold like a play. In the prologue, the mood was grim as the lead actor went down with an injury that would knock him out for the duration. In the first act, the play was a roaring success, the toast of Broadway. In the second act, the club struggled mightily and was briefly upstaged by another long-running and far more popular play which seemed primed to take the post season awards. In the third and final act, the acting company roared back to sweep the awards and spit in the faces of their critics. How good would the Rangers have been if Jacob DeGrom had been able to pitch? In 2024, they will finally get their ace on the mound (but for how long, no one knows). Perhaps in 2024, the Rangers may finally get some good news on Jack Leiter and/or Kumar Rocker [drated #2 overall in 2021 & #3 overall in 2022 respectively]. Regardless, the Rangers may be even better in 2024 simply by having their best player, Corey Seager, and best rookie, Evan Carter, play the entire season (not to mention Josh Jung). And, of course, that doesn’t even mention Wyatt Langford (#4 overall in 2023) and blasting away in the minors like it is his mission to debut in the Majors within just a year of being drafted. The Ranger’s future certainly seems bright. On the other hand, if you are not so impressed by the Ranger’s success, you can always watch the Documentary: Throw a Billion Dollars from the Helicopter. This film shows the Government of Arlington County, Texas, simply giving away, supposedly without any pay-offs or promptings, a new stadium to the Texas Ranger owners in 2020. Success Cycle Position: The Rangers are peaking while their opponents are fading. With a little luck, the Rangers will rule the AL West for the next five years or so.
Unpublished Essay: Are there limits to how many strikeouts one pitcher can throw or how many home runs one batter can hit (or can a Baseball player strike out more than 400 hitters or bash much more than 60 home runs in a season)?
9. Toronto Blue Jays
2021 Record: 91-71; 2022 Record: 92-70; 2023 Record: 89-73 [First Half: 44-37; Second Half: 45-36].
Comment: The Toronto Blue Jays are very much on the clock. The team’s two home grown star players, Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero, Jr. will both be free agents after the 2025 season. The Jays were unable to sign either of them to long-term team-friendly contracts early on in their careers. Since both players are the sons of former Major League stars, this is pretty understandable. They will, almost surely, be maximizing their value in the free agent marketplace of 2026. Thus, the Blue Jays have the next two seasons, 2024 and 2025, to make hay while the sun is still shining. Toronto seems to be a well-run team. After coming up with two potential superstar players in Guerrero and Bichette, the Blue Jays proceeded to construct a very good team to support them. The Jays did this the old-fashioned way: some good trades but mostly by free agency. Of course, the free agents that Toronto signed to add to their 2 homegrown stars and put them over the top (George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Brandon Belt, Chris Bassitt, Whitt Merrifeild, Yusei Kikuchi, Hyun Jin Ryu et al) are all on the down slope of their careers (and now 3B Matt Chapman is gone). At this moment, the Blue Jays need to go all in and take their shot at the Gold (and the Jays obviously know this as their failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani shows). Hopefully, they get one really good post-season run going in 2024 or 2025 because they may face the abyss in 2026 (after Bichette and Guerrero leave and their supporting free agent core’s careers begin to time out). Success Cycle Position: The time is now and the Blue Jays know it (and it would really help if Vlad Junior returned to form).
Published Essay: Is Vlad Junior on the road to ruin? A history of hefty players going from Dave Orr to Prince Fielder to Vlad Junior himself.
10. Seattle Mariners
2021 Record: 90-72; 2022 Record: 90-72; 2023 Record: 88-74 [First Half: 39-42; Second Half: 49-32].
Comment: Since their first season in 1977, the Seattle Mariners’ franchise has been blessed with some of the greatest Baseball Players of modern times (Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rodiguez [A-Rod] and Randy Johnson at the top, but also Edgar Martinez and Felix Hernandez). Despite all of this talent, not a single Mariners team has ever even appeared in a World Series. If there is any justice, that fate will not befall Julio Rodriguez [J-Rod?], the franchise’s latest superstar. Rodriguez will play the 2024 season at just 23 years old. His 2023 season looked a lot like is rookie season, 2022. In fact, it doesn’t look like he improved at all. But under the hood of his 2023 season, there is some proof that J-Rod actually has a chance to be just as good as Griffey Junior, Ichiro, or perhaps even A-Rod without steroids. Basically, Julio had a mediocre season in 2023 except for a blazing hot month of August that brought his statistics in line with his 2022 rookie year. Hitting just a mediocre .245 in the rest of 2023, Rodriguez was on nuclear fire in August, hitting for a .429 batting average and a .724 slugging percentage. At one point, Rodriguez even had 17 hits in four games, making only 5 outs. After the All Star break, Julio actually had a .308 BA and a .578 SA. If Rodriguez could simply maintain those post-All-Star stats for a whole season, he will be a superstar and one of the top players in all of Baseball. But his insane August 2023 numbers imply that there is even more in the tank. And the way to unlock all this talent is already apparent. All Julio Rodriguez needs to do to totally harness his talents is to learn to control the strike zone. Of course, that is easier said than done. The history of Baseball is littered with the career corpses of batters who could not improve their strike zone recognition even one little bit. Success Cycle Position: Waiting for Julio to blossom while they should be building his veteran support.
Unpublished Essay: Would Ichiro Suzuki have broken Pete Rose’s career hits record if Ichiro had played his whole career in the States?
11. Minnesota Twins
2021 Record: 73-89; 2022 Record: 78-84; 2023 Record: 87-75 [First Half: 40-41; Second Half: 47-34].
Comment: Just five seasons ago [2019], the Twins exploded on the AL Central, improving from 78-84 to 101-61 in Rocco Baldelli’s first year as the Minnesota Field Manager. The Twinkies were a great hitting team, bashing a record 307 homers that year (though that was the top rabbit ball season of all time). The core was young and the farm was good. The Twinkies seemed to be entering into an extremely competitive phase. In the covid wiped out season of 2020, the Twinkies were still good, finishing 36-24 (.600 Pct) which translates into a normal record of about 97-65. But then this emerging Twinkie Dynasty seems to have swerved off the road, got lost in the grass, and run out of gas. What happened? Some Young players did not develop [Gabe Kapler and Miguel Sano]. Injuries were a large part of it [Byron Buxton]. Some core players were already old [Nelson Cruz]. Players were traded away [Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver and, of course, Luis Arraez]. Various players arrived, added very little, and then left [Andrelton Simmons and Joey Gallo]. The pitchers were pretty much just average when the team needed an ace [which trading Arraez finally got them). After two seasons of wallowing in the second division, the Twinks had a good year last year by simply signing enough player depth to cover for their injury prone regulars. The question now is: where do the Twins go from here? Their opportunity to take over the AL Central in 2021 and 2022 is gone. Do they contend or rebuild? The team has it’s new superstar (Carlos Correa) and ace (Pablo Lopez) to build on. And, of course, they play in the mediocre AL Central. The Twins should be all in. Success Cycle Position: Should be going for the Gold but the Twinkies usually find a way to trip themselves up.
Unpublished Essay: Can just reading consistently about another Baseball team than the one you grew up rooting for make you a fan of that team? As they say, your mileage may vary but my Twin train was nothing but flat tires. [The Miami Marlins essay is the companion piece to this one.]
12t. Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 Record: 52-110; 2022 Record: 74-88; 2023 Record: 84-78 [First Half: 48-33; Second Half: 36-45].
Comment: The Diamondbacks, much like the Texas Rangers team that they played and lost to in the World Series, faded badly down the stretch. If they had played their first half like their second half, the Serpents wouldn’t have even made the playoffs [72-90 pace]. For some reason, 2023 was a bad year for momentum. That being said, Arizona may be much better in 2024. Their superstar in waiting, Corbin Carroll, will have another year of growth. Their once and future shortstop Jordan Lawler will play the whole season. Brandon Pfaadt may mature into a third ace pitcher for the team. Perhaps even Druw Jones [#2 overall pick in 2022] will begin to show signs of life. No matter how you slice it, they have come a long way since the club’s 2021 disaster. All that being said, I rooted hard against the Diamondbacks in the World Series for one simple reason. The Snakes, formed in 1998, amazingly won the World Series just three years later in 2001 (perhaps even more odd, the Serpents went 65-97 in their first year of existence and then improved to 100-62 in their 2nd season). This early success seemed unwarranted (even though, for the last 20 years, the Snakes have been basically mediocre). On the other hand, the Texas Rangers had never won a World Series in their existence (in Texas or their previous existence as the second Washington Senators team from 1961 to 1971). For just this reason, I rooted for the Rangers. Success Cycle Position: Trending up to regular contention absent injuries or stupidity.
Unpublished Essay: Is Baseball being taken over by the godchildren of Roy Campanella? Biracial Baseball players are becoming an ever larger part of Baseball demographics.
12t. Miami Marlins
2021 Record: 67-95; 2022 Record: 69-93; 2023 Record: 84-78 [First Half: 47-34; Second Half: 37-44].
Comment: The primary story of the Miami Marlins’ 20223 season was how the team had made the progressive move of hiring a female General Manager to run the organization, Kim Ng. This hiring had to be rated as an unqualified success. The Marlins improved from 69-93 to 84-78 in her two years at the helm. Then things got weird. Rather than bask in the glory of not only being the first Major League team to be run by a female GM but to have that GM do well, the Marlins effectively demoted her for a her good work. Of course, Kim Ng could have continued as the Marlin GM, but she was going to be demoted nevertheless. Way back in the beginning, Baseball team owners directly ran their teams. Then some of these owners hired Managers to help them run the club. Sometimes the Manager (also called the Captain) was just a player who ran the team on the field. But sometimes these Managers were businessman who also did the scheduling, collected the money, and moonlighted as field Managers. In time, this was all sorted out to the modern hierarchy of Owner, General Manager, and Field Manager. Recently, however, there has been yet another division of Duties. Many Major League teams are now are set up with an Owner, the President (of Baseball Operations), the General Manager, and a Field Manager. Under this structure, the President of Baseball Operations (or whatever) actually is the General Manager and builds the team. The General Manger no longer builds the team but still does all the grunt work that GMs have always done (basically the paperwork). To her credit, Kim Ng resigned the minute she knew that the Marlins were bringing in a President of Baseball operations for 2024. Success Cycle Position: Hopefully headed right back to the bottom where they belong.
Unpublished Essay: How do I hate thee? For the entire existence of the Miami Marlins franchise, they have have been the closest Major League team to my home. Despite this, the Miami Marlins have always been, no contest, my least favorite team. In 2023, they gave me one more reason to despise them.
14. Chicago Cubs
2021 Record: 71-91; 2022 Record: 74-88; 2023 Record: 83-79 [First Half: 38-43; Second Half: 45-36].
Comment: The Cubs are making steady progress climbing back up the hill of success. Their is a good chance that they will make the playoffs in 2024 (they played at a 90-72 pace in the second half). Of course, the Cubbies compete in the National League Central and, ever since the adoption of the three division set-up by both Leagues [East, Central, West], the two Central divisions usually have been the weakest. Except for perhaps the St. Louis Cardinals, no Central Division team in either League has been able to build anything resembling a dynasty. The main reason for this appears to be the owners of these Central Division clubs. Overall these owners seem to be both more conservative and also cheaper than their Eastern and Western Division brethren. Although the Cubs are once again on the path that led to their 2016 World Championship, the question will once again be whether the Cubs’ owners, the Ricketts family, will pay to maintain the team at altitude. A good litmus test for this question will be if the Cubbies resign Cody Bellinger. Bellinger was the best hitter on the 2023 Cubs but comes with substantial risk. Are the injuries that wrecked his career from 2020 to 2022 really healed for good? Was his 2023 season his new talent level or is their any chance that he could return to his 2019 MVP form [47 HR, 115 RBI, .305 BA]. A conservative club signs Bellinger like the Cubs did in 2023 (one year prove-it-to-me contract). A club going for broke signs a player like Bellinger for the long-term. Something tells me that, when the Cubbies look at Cody Bellinger, they see Kris Bryant (and his completely disastrous contract for the Rockies). Success Cycle Position: Rising towards the Top but in a balloon ready to pop.
Unpublished Essay: How good can outfielder Seiya Suzuki be now that he has established himself in the Major Leagues? Many Japanese pitchers have made the transition but few Japanese position players have.
15t. Cincinnati Reds
2021 Record: 83-79; 2022 Record: 62-100; 2023 Record: 82-80 [First Half: 43-38; Second Half: 39-42].
Comment: Like the Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds are poised in 2024 to jump back into contention. Also like the Cubbies, they play in the weak NL Central. And, like their AL Central Counterpart, the Cleveland Guardians, the Baseball Gods just gifted an undeserved high Draft pick on the Reds for 2024. It must just be an Ohio kind of year (the Reds will pick at #2 when they should have picked 13th and the Guardians, who got the #1, should have picked 9th). The nuts and bolts of another Big Red Machine are here; they just have to be assembled properly. Without question, there is one huge difference. The Big Red Machine of the mid-1970s never had a potential pitching ace like Hunter Greene. Of course, it is also quite unlikely that these Reds will approach the savagery of the Big Red Machine’s offensive attack. The year 2024 will also almost surely be the first year since 2007 without Joey Votto on the roster. As Baseball History unfolds, the likelihood of a player spending his whole career with just one team recedes. Is this really a bad thing? Baseball, after all, is a job for the players at its core. Nobody would put in the amount of time and effort it takes to perform in the Major Leagues without pay. It is certainly a bit old-fashioned to hope that Votto and others like him never have to move. So why does it feel right and would you want to reward it somehow? Success Cycle Position: Trending up with the sky as the limit and the hard ground as a floor.
Unpublished Essay: Does Elly de la Cruz (or perhaps Oneil Cruz) represent the ultimate whippet-thin but also wiry-strong Baseball position player (an essay about players in the field with zero percent body fat)?
15t. New York Yankees
2021 Record: 92-70; 2022 Record: 99-63; 2023 Record: 82-80 [First Half: 45-36; Second Half: 37-44].
Comment: The hysteria that followed the Yankees mediocre 2023 season was certainly a sight to behold. Despite being plagued with injury after injury, the Yankees fought through the first half of 2023 in good shape (on their way to a 90 win season and probable play-off berth). However, in the second half, the continuous flood of even more injuries capsized the H.M.S. Yankee. Outfielder Jasson Dominguez was the perfect 2023 Yankee. This top prospect, called up to try to salvage the season, played fantastically well until almost immediately blowing out his elbow and requiring “Tommy John” surgery. A normal team would just write a season like this off and hope to rebound the next year. But these are the Yankees. They won’t be able to shrug it off. In some ways, this disastrous season is bad luck for other teams. The Yankees will double down now, and probably sign both a top-flight pitcher and hitter. With normal luck, this would already be a good team. With reinforcements, the Yankees will be, once again, the Yankees.* The Yankees, like few other teams (Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, probably both Chicago teams) need to adopt a modern strategy that makes them continuously successful. In other words, the Yankees should treat the lesser teams in the Major Leagues like their farm system. Use free agency to collect the other teams home grown stars and superstars so that the Yanks never have a losing season. If they had been all in on this strategy recently, the Yankees would probably have Bryce Harper in their line-up too (maybe a run at Mike Trout is now in the cards too). Success Cycle Position: Returning to the Top, their normal position.
*Two days after this was written, the Yanks traded for supposed outfielder but fantastic hitter Juan Soto. Who’s next: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the ace of Japan?
Unpublished Essay: What are the chances that Aaron Judge’s 10 year contract has a happy ending (or a history of how really tall Baseball players, hitters not pitchers, age)?
15t. San Diego Padres
2021 Record: 79-83; 2022 Record: 89-73; 2023 Record: 82-80 [First Half: 37-44; Second Half: 45-36].
Comment: With the death of the Padres’ owner, Peter Seidler, it is obvious that the Padres will have to reset. However, the late Mr. Sielder should be given his proper due for trying to go out in a blaze of glory. One assumes that the Padres planned to spend every dime that they received in 2023 and that they included the projected revenue from a good post-season run (and possibly even World Series appearance) in their budget. Of course, the Friars were a complete disappointment in 2023 and didn’t even make the play-offs. After the season, the Padres were forced to take out a 50 million dollar loan. There is probably a good chance that the projected revenue from a deep run into the play-offs was about 50 million dollars. Peter Seidler, we salute you. The loading up of mercenary baseball talent by the 2023 Padres to make a run at a World Championship reminds me of the 1997 Florida (now Miami) Marlins. But the Marlins actually won the World Series that year. Perhaps the difference between the two teams was the GMs who collected the talent. In 1997, the Florida GM was Dave Drombowski, a man who seems to have the odd talent of building cohesive teams with a distinct competitive identity. For the 2023 SD Padres, the GM was one A.J. Preller who seems to have the team building skills of any cold-blooded management consultant. Another major difference was the Owners. Florida was owned by Wayne Huizenga, basically a corporate thug executing a cold blooded strategy; while the Padres were owned by Peter Seidler, who wanted to give his city a trophy before he died. That the bad guy won while the good guy failed utterly makes you question the existence of God himself. Success Cycle Position: Probably into the Abyss though that doesn’t preclude the possibility of a 90-72 season leading up to an appearance in the 2024 World Series.
Unpublished Essay: Should Yu Darvish’s combined Japanese/Major League statistics qualify him for the Baseball Hall of Fame (or a history of Japanese pitchers in the Big Leagues)?
18. San Francisco Giants
2021 Record: 107-55; 2022 Record: 81-81; 2023 Record: 79-83 [First Half: 45-36; Second Half: 34-47].
Comment: The National League San Francisco Giants have been stuck in the middle for the last two years (along with the American League’s Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox). In modern Baseball, teams are either competing or tanking. Being stuck in the middle is like being stuck in Hell. The team can either compete to appease the fans or rebuild to compete. To go 81-81 or so, year after year, is the epitome of bad strategy. Since 2018, the SF Giants have gone 73-89 [2018], 77-85 [2019], 29-31 [covid 2020], 81-81 [2022], and 79-83 [2023]. But, in 2021, the Giants went an incredible 107-55, one of the greatest stone cold fluke Baseball seasons of all time. For the last two seasons [2022 & 2023], the Giants have tried to recapture that 2021 magic. But the alchemy of that year, players up and down the roster having career years maybe because they were well rested from the covid canceled 2020 season, was gone. Even having said that, the Giants did recapture some of the magic briefly in 2023. The team was on it’s way to a 90-72 record at the end of the first half before collapsing in the second half. Interestingly, the club decided to keep the GM who constructed these teams (Farhan Zaidi) rather than the Field Manager (Gabe Kapler) who got the last dregs out of their talent. Time will tell if that was a good choice. Success Cycle Position: Still stuck in the middle, attempts to land a superstar to lead them out of the wilderness have failed.
Unpublished Essay: How do you best handle an older Ballplayer? The king of all my unpublished essays has to be the one on the effects of aging; inspired by the improbable 2021 San Francisco Giants’ season.
19t. Boston Red Sox
2021 Record: 92-70; 2022 Record: 78-84; 2023 Record: 78-84 [First Half: 40-41; Second Half: 38-43]
Comment: There are currently quite a few Baseball teams owned by financial investment businessmen types (basically hedge fund managers). The Boston Red Sox owner, John Henry, was one of the first (if not the first). The Red Sox, for the last several years, have been run in a hedge fund manner (attempting to extract maximum value from minimal investment). The result has been two identical 78-84 last place finishes in the American League East for 2022 and 2023. The team philosophy seems to be to sign a random bunch of talent, hope that luck ignites them to a great season (which actually happened in both 2013 and 2021 for Boston) and then reset to try it again if that doesn’t work. But counting on getting lucky may not be the best strategy. The Red Sox explicitly hired Chaim Bloom, their General Manager from 2020 to 2023, to rebuild the team’s tattered farm system while also trying to put together a Championship team from random scraps. For hedge fund managers like John Henry, trying to game the system, acquiring talent by being smarter than the other teams and winning on the margins, is second nature. There were some indications that Bloom was actually pulling the first part of his mandate off. The BoSox system, other than a lack of pitchers, is in much better shape. But the patience of the fans, and the club itself, wore off and Bloom got the ax. Now his successor gets to begin with a good farm system and a mandate to spend money to make money. It hardly seems fair. Success Cycle Position: Trying to avoid the most dreaded outcome: Stuck in the middle, not going up or down.
Unpublished Essay: Would only drafting position players be a viable draft strategy? Since pitchers’ careers get derailed by injuries far more often than position players, a team could theoretically use its draft picks only on hitters and use the excess hitting talent produced to trade for established pitchers (while also building their pitching staff through free agency).
19t. Detroit Tigers
2021 Record: 77-85; 2022 Record: 66-96; 2023 Record: 78-84 [First Half: 35-46; Second Half: 43-38]
Comment: The Detroit Tigers, like the Chicago Cubs, are another team on the upswing. Their second half record [for a 86-76 pace] seems to indicate that the Tigers may have a winning record in 2024, their first since 2016. They are finally rid of the dead weight of Miguel Cabrera’s career. The club has several hitters who may make a leap forward [Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter] and pitchers with promise [Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Reese Olsen] with a bunch of talent bubbling in their farm system [led by outfielder Max Clark]. A return to some semblance of career norms by the highly-paid, but completely underperforming, shortstop Javier Baez would help too. One of the interesting facets of being a long-term Baseball fan is that the depth of your knowledge about other teams, rather than the club whose flannels you actually root for [Red Sox], can give you somewhat of a rooting interest in that other team too. For instance, I would prefer that the Detroit Tigers, with their long and storied history, do better than a team such as the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, or the Arizona Diamondbacks (all created within my lifetime). Success Cycle Position: Coming back into Contention as long as injuries and bad luck don’t drive them into the ditch.
Unpublished Essay: Has any Major League Baseball team lost more potential dynasties than the Detroit Tigers (looking back at the Cobb Tigers, the 1960s Tiger clubs, and the Tiger teams of the 1980s).
21t. Cleveland Guardians
2021 Record: 80-82; 2022 Record: 92-70; 2023 Record: 76-86 [First Half: 39-42; Second Half: 37-44].
Comment: The Cleveland franchise has come a long way since the film Major League used them to represent ineptitude in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the club had a decade of success when the Cleveland farm system churned out great hitters like popcorn. After a relatively quiet decade+ from 2002 to 2012 (with just two 90 win seasons), Cleveland had quite a run of success from the years 2013 to 2022 [9 winning seasons and one year of 80-82, 6 seasons with over 90 wins, one with over 100, and a 2016 World Series appearance in which they lost to the Chicago Cubs. The two constants in this run of excellence were 3B Jose Ramirez and Manager Terry Francona [In Francona’s first year, 2013, the team improved from 68-94 to 92-70]. But, in 2023, Francona retired and the team had their worst season since 2012. Although Cleveland still has a pretty good team, they are lacking one crucial component: power hitting. It would seem like the team was primed to go through a down cycle. However, luck may just be on Cleveland’s side. Under the old Draft system, Cleveland would have picked 9th or 10th in 2024. But, under the new Draft system, Cleveland has come up aces and, with extreme good fortune, gets to choose first. As one of the more likeable Major League franchises, it will be good if they get to pick the Big Bopper of their dreams. Success Cycle Position: Obviously on the Down Side but perhaps with a quick bounce back.
Published Essay: Should you try to erase the past in retrograde (or how does the Cleveland franchise name change from Indians to Guardians look one year later? Should Sports teams bow to the politically correct undertow of current culture?
21t. Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 Record:; 2022 Record:; 2023 Record: 76-86 [First Half: 39-42; First Half: 37-44].
Comment: The Pirates blasted out of the gate in 2023, going 20-8 in their first 28 games. Then they slowly fell back to Earth, finishing 56-78 to arrive at their final record of 76-86. This was their 20th losing season (out of 24 years from 2000-2023) in the 21st Century. It must be a hopeless feeling to root for the Pirates. But there could be good things coming. Pitcher Paul Skenes (the #1 overall 2023 draft pick) is on his way. Second baseman Termarr Johnson (#4 overall in 2022) is certainly interesting (.244 BA but 18 HRs and 101 BBs in 105 games for a .422 on-base percentage). He seems to be some mutant form of Joe Morgan. And Henry Davis (#1 overall in 2021) has established himself in the Major Leagues. If two of these three players become superstar players & also franchise cornerstones, the Pirates may finally become relevant again (the Buccos have the #9 pick overall in 2024 too). Until then, the Pirates can bring back Andrew McCutchen for yet another year in a feel good move. The Bucs have a bunch of players who could be a pretty good supporting cast for some superstars [such as shortstop Oneil Cruz, who could still become a superstar himself, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, OFs Bryan Reynolds & Jack Suwinski, and pitcher Mitch Keller. Success Cycle Position: Definitely on the upswing to contention. But will the Pirates follow the Atlanta Braves model and sign any of this talent to team friendly contracts? Only time will tell…but past Pirates decisions about large contracts do not lean toward hope.
Unpublished Essay: Which Major League Baseball team, so far, has been the worst of the 21st Century? The Pittsburgh Pirates have a good argument that its them. Where do they go from here? A look at their own past (and also the City of Pittsburgh itself) may help. [Companion essay to Kansas City Royals.]
23. New York Mets
2021 Record: 77-85; 2022 Record: 101-61; 2023 Record: 75-87 [First Half: 36-45; Second Half: 39-42].
Comment: New York Met Owner Steve Cohen made his money as a successful Hedge Fund manager. The 2023 season illustrated that Cohen, as he should, understands the financial concept of ‘Sunk Costs’ [i.e. money that has already been spent & cannot be recovered by throwing more money at the problem]. After signing two ancient (by Baseball’s reckoning) pitchers to try to lead the New York Mets back to the Promised Land (play-offs), Cohen did a complete about face when it became apparent that the Mets weren’t going to make it. With the jettison of Billy Eppler as GM and the hiring of David Stearns to run the team, it is apparent that the NY Mets have gone into long-term strategy mode. With a very committed owner and a presumably talented front office, the Mets reset should be short. Eventually, Steve Cohen will open his wallet and once again go for broke to bring a pennant. But it certainly doesn’t feel like 2024 will be the year. Success Cycle Position: The Mets are probably in a short term trough.
Published Essay [Post #31; 4th of 4 actually posted]: What makes for a great Baseball team owner from the fans’ perspective (or is Steve Cohen currently the best Major League Baseball owner)?
24. Los Angeles Angels
2021 Record: 77-85; 2022 Record: 73-89; 2023 Record: 73-89 [First Half: 44-37; Second Half: 29-52]
Comment: With the loss of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels should now go into full tank mode. Odds are extremely good that the 2024 season will be a 100 loss year for the LA Halos. Whether the team keeps or trades their remaining star, Mike Trout, will indicate whether the Angels understand their need to rebuild. In all probability, the Angels will not trade Trout because being stuck in the middle, too good to fail but not good enough to succeed, has been a team mantra for quite some time. Strangely enough, the dumping of seven players on the waiver wire at the end of 2023 would normally be considered a good sign. It got the Angels under the Luxury tax and cleared the decks. It was an unusually intelligent and savvy move for this franchise. But they have already stated that they will definitely not be trading Trout this off-season. Of course, the history of Baseball is littered with similar proclamations that proved to be completely false. But the very statement shows that the Angel front office has not learned a thing. They didn’t trade Ohtani when they should have and will not trade Trout before all his value is gone either. Even if Mike Trout returns in 2024 and plays 150 games or so, he will just be leading the team to another 70 or so loss season. While good for Trout, it will just keep the Angels on the endless treadmill of mediocrity. Success Cycle Position: The Angels are stuck in Neutral when they should be racing to a full rebuild.
Unpublished Essay: Who were Baseball’s greatest athletes decade by decade? Not necessarily the best at playing Baseball, but the most naturally physically gifted specimens of each ten year bloc.
25t. St. Louis Cardinals
2021 Record: 90-72; 2022 Record: 93-69; 2023 Record: 71-91 [First Half: 34-47; Second Half: 37-44].
Comment: The St. Louis Cardinals have apparently decided to test whether Baseball’s front office strategies from before the Moneyball revolution should be brought back. A few years back, the Cardinals were on the cutting edge of modern Baseball analytical strategy. Among others, the Cardinals employed Jeff Luhnow (who went on to be the architect of the Houston Astros dynasty). But the General Manager of the team was John Mozeliak, a man without the now customary background in analytics. In 2015, the Cardinals were basically accused of corporate espionage (hacking into Jeff Luhnow’s Astro Database). Since that scandal, the Cardinals, under Mozeliak, have seemed to completely distrust the analytic side of Baseball. The team has double-downed on “Old School Baseball” philosophies such as trusting veterans and experience and mistrusting youth. During 2023, the Cardinals’ mismanagement of their best prospect, Jordan Walker, was epic. Their 2023/2024 off season moves so far, signing three mid-thirty starting pitchers to solve their rotation problems, go against the grain of modern Baseball thought. Of course, this doesn’t mean that it won’t work. Perhaps the Cardinals aging core has one last great race in them. But no one should bet on it. Success Cycle Position: On the downhill side, fighting the pull of the inevitable tide.
Unpublished Essay: What are the consequences of undervaluing the talent in your farm system (or are the modern St. Louis Cardinals following this ancient road to the basement or do they have enough talent in their farm system that they can survive this level of stupidity)?
25t. Washington Nationals
2021 Record: 65-97; 2022 Record: 55-107; 2023 Record: 71-91 [First Half: 33-48; Second Half 38-43].
Comment: The Nationals had one hell of a run from 2012 until 2019. Despite losing four times in the National League Division Series [2012, 2014, 2016 and 2017], the Gnats finished off their success cycle in style by capturing the 2019 World Championship. But then the Nationals crashed back to Earth. They are currently well into their rebuild. Now it is just a question of getting lucky with the talent (having your prospects develop, making some very wise free agent signings, and not doing anything wasteful or stupid). But this team will never again get as lucky as it did when it kicked off their 2012-2019 run by receiving two straight Number One Draft picks [in 2009: Steven Strasburg; in 2010 Bryce Harper]. They are going to have to get along with the 2022 #5 [Elijah Green, not looking too good yet]; 2023 #2 [Dylan Crews, looking pretty good so far], and the 2024 #10. The Players Union’s restructuring the Draft, beginning with the 2022, has definitely hurt the Nationals. Under the old system, Washington would have selected #1 in 2023 and #5 in 2024. However, if outfielder Dylan Crews and pitcher Mackenzie Gore both reach their potential, Washington will have effectively replaced Harper and Strasburg. Of course, that’s a very big if. Success Cycle Position: Once again on the way up.
Unpublished Essay: What do you do when all paths lead to perdition? The Washington Senators would have almost surely crashed and burned even if they had kept their core after their 2019 World Championship.
27. Chicago White Sox
2021 Record: 93-69; 2022 Record: 81-81; 2023 Record: 61-101 [First Half 34-47; Second Half 27-54].
Comment: The 2023 Chicago White Sox had perhaps the most complete reset year in Baseball. The season was such a disaster that they fired a seemingly entrenched front office. They fired the field manager. And they threw most of their veteran players into the abyss (trades, releases, and free agency). But there was one constant. The Owner Jerry Reinsdorf survived the purge. One gets the impression that Reinsdorf is one of the last dinosaur owners. He sits in his office and remembers the old days when the owners tried to break the Players’ Union. He doesn’t believe in all this ‘Moneyball’ analytical stuff. And he truly believes in a old style patronage system (i.e. he will be endlessly loyal to his employees as long as they kiss his ass). But in 2023 all this went out the window and Reinsdorf burned down the house for a rebuild. It seems pretty odd now that, just a few years ago, the White Sox seemed to be cresting up to the apex of a success cycle and would possibly rule the American League Central for at least four or five years. By all rights, the White Sox should rule the Central simply by being the division’s financial powerhouse. Instead, the team complied losing records from 2013 to 2019 before their brief fling with contention in 2021 & 2022. Maybe a total rebuild was in order. But Reinsdorf is still there. Success Cycle Position: Trapped in the Back Row, stuck in neutral after entering a Gran Prix.
Unpublished Essay: Were the Chicago Black Sox (the 1919 World Series team that threw the World Series) actually underpaid (or an essay wondering if the ghost of Charlie Comiskey still haunts the White Sox franchise).
28. Colorado Rockies
2021 Record: 74-87; 2022 Record: 68-94; 2023 Record: 59-103 [First Half: 31-50; Second Half: 28-53].
Comment: At this moment, the Colorado Rockies seem to be the most poorly run Baseball team in the Major Leagues. The team’s owner, the appropriately named Dick Monfort, seems completely clueless, his general managers (first Jeff Bridich 2015-2021 and then Bill Schmidt 2022-2023) seem pretty hapless, the players are basically useless (represented best by the ridiculously overpaid Kris Bryant), and the farm system is almost totally hopeless (rated as the worst or close to the worst farm system by most media outlets). It is probably even money that the Colorado Rockies will finish 2024 with the worst record in the Majors. In the second half of 2023 season, the Rockies finished with a worse record than either the Royals or Athletics (see below). But the Chicago White Sox, in total freefall, did manage to be even worse, finishing a horrid 27-54 to the Rockies 28-53. Maybe the only ray of sunshine for the Rockies is the fact that they hold the #3 draft pick in the 2024 Annual Amateur Baseball Player Underpayment Sweepstakes. Success Cycle Position: Lying on the Floor in a coma watching ancient “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up” commercials.
Unpublished Essay: If you could pick between 1) being happy despite being totally incompetent or 2) being miserable while being totally incompetent, which would you choose? The Colorado Rockies would be a lot more fun if they just embraced their inner self (i.e. hit home runs like crazy).
29. Kansas City Royals
2021 Record: 74-88; 2022 Record: 65-97; 2023 Record: 56-106 [First Half: 23-58; Second Half: 33-48].
Comment: The Kansas City Royals rebounded with a much better record in the second half of the 2023 season. There is some hope. In Bobby Witt, Jr., the team has a star player who may become a superstar. The KC Royals have some other young players who could mature into stars. They also seem to have, completely out of the blue, developed an ace pitcher in Cole Ragans [if his ligaments hold together]. However, KC has, other than Ragans, almost no decent pitching at all. If they can just come up with a few pitchers who can give them some decent bulk innings, the Royals may improve quite a bit in 2024. Interestingly, the KC Royals have been trying the opposite strategy of the Boston Red Sox. They have been using their top draft picks on pitchers (while the BoSox have been going after hitters). So far, it’s been a disaster for Kansas City. At this point, the Royals have just started down the yellow brick road back to contention. But there are promising signs. It will be interesting to see if the 2023 Royals’ disaster ends Zack Greinke’s career [after a brutal 2-15 season as a starter for shipwrecked KC]. It seems like a team could benefit from using Greinke as a reliever/pitching coach. Success Cycle Position: Lying on the Bottom but starting to crawl back to contention.
Unpublished Essay: Should a Baseball team attempt to establish a consistent identity over time (or should the Royals embrace their past to move into the future (an enlightened owner, the speed of artificial grass, and perhaps even the legacy of the Kansas City Monarchs)? [Companion essay to the Pittsburgh Pirates.]
30. Oakland Athletics
2021 Record: 86-76; 2022 Record: 60-102; 2023 Record: 50-112 [First half: 21-60; Second Half: 29-52].
Comment: The fix is in. For some reason, Major League Baseball really wants the Oakland franchise to move to Las Vegas. They want it so much that MLB has waived the normal relocation fee [around 300 million dollars or slightly more than 10 million for each of the other 29 teams]. Apparently the League envisions that the synergy between Baseball and Gambling will produce much more than this amount for each and every team. Somewhere in heaven [or possibly hell], Kennesaw Mountain Landis is spinning in his grave. On a team level, the Athletics are pulling off a good old fashioned tank [playing badly to collect high draft picks]. When they finally get to Vegas, the team may even be good again. Interestingly, the Players Union’s modifications of the Draft system to prevent teams being rewarded for tanking have, for now, probably hurt the Athletics the most. Despite having the worst record in 2023, they will pick 4th rather than 1st in 2024 (after dropping to 6th in 2023 after finishing in a three way tie for the 2nd worst record in 2022). Since Tanking was one of the many Moneyball strategies widely adopted and Moneyball was focused on Oakland, it almost feels appropriate. Success Cycle Position: On the bottom, trying to rebuild (or is there any Billy Beane magic left).
Unpublished Essay: Will the Oakland Athletics change their name to the Las Vegas Orphans? Many teams have relocated, but usually just once. Only the Athletics have relocated again, and again, and now yet again [this will be their third relocation]. Somewhere, the ghost of Connie Mack is moaning.