Brinksmanship
February 23,2024
It’s how you walk to the ATM. It isn’t whether the ATM exists, right? Scott Boras on the Baseball Owner’s deep pockets.
Diamond Dust [Number 1]
It is late February and five major free agents* have not yet signed with a new (or former) team. The one thing that all these men have in common is the same business agent: the indefatigable Scott Boras, who is possibly the most beloved and despised baseball agent of all time. For any long time Baseball fan, Boras, a stocky man with the demeanor of a pit bull, seems to be almost inevitable. His modus operandi is to negotiate for his baseball player clients as fiercely as possible, extracting every penny possible from whichever club owner will pay. For almost 40 years, almost every Baseball off-season has had a prolonged and torturous Boras negotiation as a major storyline. It seems like most of the players that he represents love him. On the other hand, most Baseball fans despise Scott Boras. He punctures their dreams that the players have team loyalties and Baseball is anything more than just a business. As for the Baseball owners, Boras is a very specific nightmare. He usually advises his clients to maximize their value in the free agent marketplace. Boras is not in favor of ‘hometown discounts’ or leaving any money on the table. His players routinely switch teams for large contracts. These tactics, negotiating right up to the brink, have been very successful for the players represented by Boras. But this off-season may be different. The Boras tactic of ‘Brinkmanship’ may have, at least for this season, met it’s match. It is late February. The spring training camps are open. And his five free agent stars still twist in the wind.
*Cody Bellinger [OF], Blake Snell [P], Jordan Montgomery [P], Matt Chapman [3B] and J.D. Martinez [DH].
One thing that you can surely say about Scott Boras is that he does actually love the game of Baseball. Born in November of 1952, Boras walked on to his college team, made the cut, and reportedly led his team in batting average [BA]. Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals, he played in the Minor Leagues from 1974 to 1977 as primarily a second baseman. By 1977, Boras had made it to the Texas League where he hit for a .275 BA with 43 walks and 27 strikeouts in 265 at bats. Basically, Boras was a prototypical ‘scrappy’ second baseman. He had no real power but obvious contact skills with a very good eye at the plate. But that year was where his career ended, reportedly because of a knee injury. Could he have made the Majors? Possibly. In 1977, Boras was only 24. Many players do not come into their own until they are 25 to 30. If he got stockier and gained some power while refining his batting eye to draw 100 walks each year and also not slipped down the defensive spectrum, it possibly could have happened. But a much more likely outcome, if he had stayed in Baseball, was that he would have became a minor league manager or coach. Earl Weaver, the legendary Baltimore Oriole manager, was probably his ceiling.* Instead of pursuing this path, Boras went to law school, graduating in 1982. Before he even got his diploma, Boras was already representing Major League players. He then opened the Boras Corporation which he built into one of the largest sports agencies in the world. Fascinatingly, his business only represents Major League Baseball players, no athletes from any other sport. As far as Baseball goes, the Boras Corporation is the top sports agency, by far.
*Earl Weaver was a very similar Minor League Player to Boras. The Baltimore skipper was a scrappy second baseman who hit for a decent BA without any real power and drew a lot of walks.
How did Scott Boras and his corporation get to be so successful? Over time, he built his business into a full service organization for his players. The Boras Corporation offers marketing, conditioning, and psychological services to its clients. Interestingly, it does not offer investment advice or services. As that type of advice usually causes ‘conflicts of interests‘ between the agents and their clients, it indicates that Boras must have some ethical standards. But the actual basis of Boras’ success as a sports agent is much simpler. Boras quickly established a reputation for fighting to always get his clients the most money possible. He refused to let the Owners cry poor mouth.* He had no problems going directly to an owner to make a pitch, bypassing the front office. Boras developed (or already had) an aggressive, even bombastic, personal style. He used the press to publicize his efforts on behalf of his players. Boras had no problems with refusing to sign and holding out, long past what seemed to be reasonable, until he got all that could be gotten for his clients. This created a very interesting feedback loop. By getting them maximum dollars, he lured more and more Baseball players to his agency. These players came to Boras because they did not want to be cheated out of a single cent. The Baseball teams quickly realized that money was the primary driver of the player-team relationship for any client of Boras. For any player he represented, Boras was playing high stakes poker with the Club Owners and consistently winning. As he won over and over, the feedback loop strengthened itself. But all winning streaks almost always end if you keep playing.
*It is often stated that Boras animus against the Owners’ cries of poverty stem from his experience in the Minor Leagues. Considering that the Minors have often been compared to indentured servitude or chattel slavery, this may well be true.
Is this what is happening right now for Scott Boras’ big five 2024 free agents? It certainly seems like it is. To continue with the poker analogy, Boras has a very poor hand in 2024. Cody Bellinger is a former MVP who is coming off a very good year. But he had three terrible years in between his MVP year and 2023. If his shoulder gives out again, Bellinger will be worthless. Blake Snell has won two Cy Youngs Awards in 2018 and 2023. But, in every other year of his career, he has never been anywhere near the very best pitcher in baseball, posting average ERAs and walking too many men. Even in 2023, Snell issued the most bases on balls in the National League. Jordan Montgomery seems to be turning into a rotation mainstay and he has pitched pretty well for years. But his 10 and 11 won/lost record in 2023 was the very first time he ever had won in double digits. Despite a great 2023 post-season, Montgomery hasn’t ever impressed anyone with his conditioning. Matt Chapman began the 2023 season like a house on fire. Then he cooled off until he was virtually helpless. On the wrong side of 30, Chapman could reach the end of the line before the end of any multi-year contract. J.D. Martinez, who had a good comeback year in 2023, is currently 36 and will be 37 before the 2024 season is over. Despite having five flawed clients, Boras has spent almost the entire 2024 off-season endlessly negotiating for the absolute best deal possible. Now both he and his players are standing on the brink and staring into the abyss.
Scott Boras has made many enemies among the Baseball Owners and their front offices while endlessly out-negotiating them. It is also very obvious that quite of few of these people are enjoying Boras’ current discomfort. Will any of them break ranks to sign one of Boras unlucky big 5 free agents of 2024? The Owner and Front Office fraternity are going to be unhappy with anyone who gives one of Boras’ big five that contract that they are looking for. They will surely celebrate any team that gets one of Boras’ clients on the cheap. It will be very interesting to see how long they force Boras and his unfortunate five players to squirm. Will Boras learn anything from this free agent fiasco? Will he temper his use of contract brinkmanship in the future? Will he work harder to get the best fit for his players rather than simply the most money possible? It seems unlikely. People resist change. But, strangely enough, I wouldn’t bet against Boras. He certainly seems more capable of change than his Major League Baseball opponents. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming seasons.
Addendum #1:
The Boras Corporation actually represented 8 players going into the 2024 free agent market. There were the 5 elite players but also 3 other players who you would hardly call the ‘top’ of this free agent class. These 3 other players were: Rhys Hoskins, Sean Manaea, and Joey Gallo [shades of My Cousin Vinny!]. All three of these players were basically fungible. Of the three, Hoskins probably offered the most upside. But he had missed the entire 2023 season because of a severe knee injury. Manaea was a decent pitcher and could definitely fill a rotation spot. But, even at his best, he had never been a star and now was on the wrong side of 30. Gallo still had prodigious power. But he had batted under .200 for four consecutive seasons [.181-.199-.160-.177]. Despite their flaws, the Boras Corporation did very well for each player. Hoskins signed for 16 million in 2024 with a 18 million player option for 2025 and also 18 million mutual option 2026. Manaea signed for 14.5 million plus a 13.5 million dollar option for 2025. Gallo, who seemed to be headed for a non-roster invite to Spring Training, signed for 5 million in 2024 with an 8 million mutual option for 2025. It seems that, for each of these three players, the Boras Corporation identified an interested team and hammered out an agreement with that club before they could change their mind. Quite a difference from the negotiating strategy that they used for their big five.
Addendum #2:
In yet another attempt to shorten my posts, I tried to write one in a single day like some old school newspaper reporter under a deadline. It still wasn’t short enough. But I did get it done in just one day. For this style of post, I decided to title them with a “Diamond Dust” heading. This is hardly original to me. I saw it in an old newspaper. But I have claimed it as mine for now.