Note: This doomed post was in production right past the December 7th, 2024, announcement of the Classic Era Committee inductees for the BHOF. While time was being wasting thinking and writing about John Donaldson and Vic Harris, the CEC went ahead and inducted Dave Parker [!] and Dick Allen. The induction of Dave Parker was certainly a surprise to this blog. The idea was that the post would celebrate the induction of one of the two Negro League players. The only change since December 1st is finishing off the evaluations of the candidacies of Donaldson [Yay] and Harris [nay].
The Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2025
December 11, 2024
Once you realize how good you really are, you never settle for playing less than your best. Reggie Jackson
Introduction One: The 2025 Classic Committee Election
The 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame [BHOF] Class will come from two different elections from basically three different player groups. The results of the first election will be announced on December 8, 2024. This first 2025 BHOF election will come from the latest incarnation of the maligned Veteran’s Committee. Of course, it is no longer called the Veteran’s Commitee. It is labeled the “Classic Baseball Era Committee.” It is one of three rotating Commitees who are the lastest bastard children of the original Veteran’s Committee [these 3 Committees will rotate their annual elections for the foreseeable future].* This Veteran Classic Committee will vote on eight men who contributed to the Baseball World before 1980. Notably, this is the only remaining BHOF Committee that can honor Negro Leaguers. The eight man ballot being voted on by the Classic Commitee will be prepared by yet another BHOF Committee, the Historical Overview Committee (HOC). The HOC is a group of 10 baseball historians, writers and sportscasters. The Classic Committee itself will consist of 16 voters. Each of these voters will get three votes. To be elected to the BHOF, the players on this ballot will need to receive 75% of the ballots cast (i.e. 12 votes). Of course, this sets some limits. The Classic Committee could theoretically elect 4 men (48 total votes/12 required equals 4 electees). In reality, the Classic Commitee will probably elect either one or two men to the BHOF (three is unlikely and four would raise questions about collaboration). Interestingly, the Hall of Fame has declined to name the 16 Classic Committee voters in advance. This is probably due to the very much derided 2019 election of DH Harold Baines to the Hall of Fame by a bunch of very biased supporters. Basically, the Classic Committee is a back door into the Baseball Hall of Fame with minimal oversight. Like most things done in the dark, the results may be a bit strange.
*In other words, the Classic Commitee will next meet and elect pre-1980 Baseball individuals for the 2028 Baseball Hall of Fame Class.
Introduction Two: The 2025 BBWAA Election
The second 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame election will be held by the BBWAA (Baseball Writers’ Association of America). The BBWAA sends its members (who are eligible to vote in the 2025 HOF election) their BHOF ballots before the end of November 2024. The voters need to return these ballots before December 31st, 2024. The results are announced on January 21st, 2024. Any player who is elected will be inducted on July 27th, 2025 at Cooperstown, NY, along with anyone voted in by the Classic Committee. Basically, the BBWAA members vote for one large group of players that can be sub-divided into two distinct groups: 1) Players on the ballot for the first time and 2) Players who were not elected on previous ballots but survived to be on the present ballot by receiving at least 5% of the vote. Those players who appear for the first time have to qualify to be on the ballot by being retired for at least five years and spending at least 10 seasons in the Major Leagues. Those players who have survived to be voted on again can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years as long as they keep receiving their 5% or more of the vote. Some of the rules are similar or identical to those of the Classic Committee. To be elected to the HOF, a player must receive 75% or more of the vote. But the BBWAA voter base is much larger, usually around 400 voters. Like the Classic Committee, everyone on the BBWAA ballot was screened beforehand by yet another Committee. Unlike the Classic Committee, the BBWAA only votes on players. There are a bunch of boilerplate rules that apply to both of these BHOF elections too, but they are not all that important for this discussion.* The BBWAA election is the front door into the Hall of Fame and would be what most caual Baseball fans consider to be the real BHOF election.
* For example, no players on the ineligible list (Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe); no write-ins; personal character should be considered, etc.
I.) A Breif Interlude to talk about WAR
Since the Baseball Hall of Fame [BHOF] opened up on June 12th of 1939, the qualifications for electing a player to the BHOF have changed and evolved, tightened and loosened, and continued to mutate. However, in recent years, a Baseball statistic called WAR (Wins Above replacement) has become pre-eminent in the discussion of who belongs in the BHOF. WAR is a stat that attempts to measure a player’s complete contribution to his team’s success, both offensive and defensive, and reduce it to a value that represents how many wins that player added to his team’s total. The very best players can be worth 10 wins or more per year at their peak. Only the greatest players will accumulate 100 WAR or more during their career.* For a player to be elected to the BHOF, the current break even point is about 50 career WAR. In other words, most BHOF players have 50 plus career WAR. If a player has a career total of over 60 WAR, he is almost surely BHOF worthy. However, if a player has below 40 career WAR, he probably should not even be in the debate. A total of between 40 and 60 WAR indicates that there probably needs to be a serious discussion about whether that player belongs or not. One thing outside the pale is to use the career WAR of individual players that have already been elected as a yardstick. If you let in every player who had more WAR than 19th-Century outfielder Tommy McCarthy [14.6 WAR], there would be thousands of players inducted rather than the current total of 273 Major League players as of 2024 (excluding the Negro League players whose total career WAR is reduced by the lack of a 154 game schedule, not by worthiness).
*As of the 2024 season, only 32 players have been credited with 100 career WAR by Baseball Reference, basically the inventor of this statistic.
However, any reasonably sane person will admit that WAR has serious problems. For one thing, it combines something that can be measured very accurately (offense) with something that cannot (defense). For another, the statistic is intentionally vague. Whoever created WAR made sure that only a mathematician could do the calculations. For example, rather than making each calculation distinct, they melded them together nonsensically. You cannot simply add offensive, defensive, and pitching WAR togther to get total WAR. Each sum contains a “positional adjustment” that ensures this simple addition goes wrong. Baseball Historian Bill James also claimed that WAR is a terrible system. He basically believed that because WAR has so many individual calculations, there is a good chance for an error cascade resulting in a completely ridiculous conclusion. In other words, if every calculation is slightly wrong in the same direction (either for or against a player), the calculation could end up with an exceedingly large error by geometric progression (of course, it could also be correct if those errors just cancel each other out). However, for better or worse, WAR is currently the system usually being used to evaluate modern BHOF candidates. So we will be talking about WAR while discussing possible HOF inductees. One other thing to always remember about WAR is: there are a lot of traditional BHOF voters in the BBWAA and on the Veteran’s Committees who don’t believe in it much (and some who actively reject it). This dynamic, between the “old school” traditionalists and the modern baseball analytics crowd, now plays out in annually in many BHOF elections (not to mention seasonal awards like the MVP). While this post will discuss player’s WAR scores, it will also be taking WAR with a grain of salt.
II.) The 36 Players Eligible for BHOF Election in 2025
There are 36 players eligible to be elected to the BHOF in 2025. It must be admitted up front that, if not for the traditional “old school” BBWAA voters who don’t believe in WAR (and refuse to let it guide their votes), all these elections would be duller than a convention of gout medicine salesmen overdosed on quaaludes. Because of this, the “old school” point of view has to be considered too as we review these players up for election to the BHOF in 2025. In many cases, it is the traditionalist view that is keeping some players out and letting other players in. To begin, these 36 eligible players should be split up into three different groups. The very first group contains the 14 players who are brand new to the BBWAA ballot for 2025. The second group consists of the 14 players from previous BBWAA ballots who have survived to be voted on once again. Of course, some would say that group one and group two are basically the same thing. But it is more like a snapshot versus a movie. Players on the ballot for the first time are the snapshot. It is one quick judgment, are they BHOF worthy or not? But the players who survive to be voted on more than once and possibly ten [10] times, are more like a movie. Sometimes you need to digest a movie for awhile before you can really accurately rate it. The third and final group will be those 8 players being considered by the Classic Committee. For the most part, these men have already been considered over and over by the BBWAA or previous Veterans Committees and denied (unless they are Negro League veterans). But they are getting one more chance (until their next chance because the BHOF has absolutely no mechanism to ever close the door to election) for their BHOF cases to be heard.
III) The 14 Brand New Players on the 2025 BBWAA Ballot [Ranked by WAR]
These 14 candidates are brand new to the BBWAA ballot and have never been voted on before. Each man retired, either of their own free will or because no Major League would employ them any more, after the 2019 season. The Baseball Hall of Famers elected on the first ballot are usually considered the elite of the BHOF.
1) C.C. Sabathia [62.3 WAR], born 1980, career 2001-2019: The interestingly named Carsten Charles “C.C.” Sabathia is somewhat of a transitional player. C.C. belongs to the last generation of starting pitchers who were expected to pitch more than 6 innings per start. When he pitched his league-leading and career-high of 253 innings in 2008, C.C. averaged just over 7 innings per start (35 starts total). Since he threw those 253 innings, no other pitcher has topped that total. Currently, it takes about 210 innings pitched [IP] to lead the Major Leagues. As time goes by and the workload of starting pitchers continues to decrease, Sabathia’s 251 wins and 161 losses record will begin to look more and more like a veritable mountain of victories. Under the WAR stat, Sabathia certainly qualifies for the BHOF (though not by much). Despite that, it must be said that CC Sabathia certainly feels like a Hall of Famer. From 2007 to 2011, he had a Hall of Fame peak. There is a fair chance that Sabathia will be elected in 2025 on his first ballot. If not, Sabathia will do well enough that his eventual election will be assured before too long. Of course, if Sabathia had stayed in shape for the back end of his career, there wouldn’t be any questions at all. Though it was certainly interesting to watch a 350 pound fat man pitch from 2013 to 2019, Sabathia could have spent that time padding his Hall of Fame resume instead and removing all doubts about his worthiness (to his credit, C.C. Sabathia is currently in far better shape than he was at the end of his career). If he is elected on the first ballot, it will be a triumph of the traditionalists over the statisticians. His stats don’t really support a first ballot election, but his reputation does. [Top 5 WAR: 6.7, 6.4, 6.3, 6.2, and 4.8= 30.4; all five in consecutive years with a 4.6 season to start off this six year peak.]
2) Ichiro Suzuki [60.0 WAR], born 1973, career 2001-2019: Ichiro Suzuki will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2025 on the first ballot. The only question is whether Ichiro will be elected unanimously or not. Of course, Ichiro’s Major League total of just 60.0 WAR does not support this type of first ballot outcome. But his old school stats (1420 runs scored, 3089 hits, .311 career BA, 509 stolen bases, 2 batting crowns, and 1 MVP) should make him a no doubter in traditional analysis. But the upcoming overwhelming nature of Ichiro’s election is not really a contrast of traditional and modern evaluation. Ichiro will be getting credit for that part of his career played in Japan as well. If he had debuted in the Major Leagues at the beginning of the 1994 season instead of Japan, Ichiro would have amassed somewhere around 100+ WAR for his career.* Barring injury, Ichiro would have also certainly surpassed 4000 career hits in the Major Leagues and probably broken Pete Rose’s all-time hit record of 4256 (breaking the heart of the “Hit King” too). The unanimous (or nearly unamimous) election of Ichiro will be well and truly deserved. [Top 5 WAR: 9.2, 7.7, 5.8, 5.6, and 5.4= 33.7, all in the Major Leagues; Top 5 oWAR: 6.2, 6.1, 5.4, 4.4 and 4.4= 26.5; Career oWAR: 47.8].
*Ichiro’s WAR: From 1994 to 2000, Ichiro was a great (and consistent) player in Japan. In 2001, he jumped to the USA and had a 7.7 WAR season. If Ichiro had averaged 7.7 WAR per year from 1994 to 2000 in the USA, he would have added 53.9 WAR to his total of 60.0. From 2001 to 2003, Ichiro averaged 5.6 WAR per season [16.9/3] in the USA. If Ichiro had averaged 5.6 WAR per year from 1994 to 2000 in America, he would have added 39.2 WAR to his total of 60.0. From 2001 to 2007, Ichiro averaged 5.9 WAR per season [41.1/7] in the USA. If he had done that from 1994 to 2000 in America, Ichiro would have added 41.3 more WAR to his total of 60.0. In other words, if he had played in the USA from 1994 to 2019, Ichiro Suzuki would have collected somewhere between 95 and 115 WAR for his career.
3) Ian Kinsler [54.1 WAR], born 1982, career 2006-2019: No one seemed to consider second baseman Ian Kinsler a future Baseball Hall of Famer while he was playing ball. But he had an excellent “Tommy Harper” type career.* One year, Kinsler hit .319 (the only year he hit .300 or better). The next year, Kinsler hit .253 but with 31 HRs. Another year, he hit 32 HRs with 89 walks (usually he hit 11-20 homers and took 40 to 60 BBs per year). His career highs, all put togther, would make one hell of a player (121 R/188 H/42 2B/7 3B/32 HR/92 RBI/.319 BA/.517 SA). But usually it was just a bunch of this or a bundle of that, but not all together. It will be interesting to see if Kinsler will get the 5 percent necessary to survive the 2025 vote and maybe get another shot on the 2026 ballot. Although his statistics indicate that he is a borderline Hall of Fame player, the traditional evaluation of his career will be a problem for him going forward. Ian Kinsler also makes an interesting comparison with the next guy, yet another second baseman. [Top 5 WAR: 7.0, 6.0, 5.6, 5.1 and 5.0= 28.7, Kinsler was worth 4.0 or more WAR every year from 2007 to 2016 except for 2012; Top 5 oWAR: 5.5, 5.3, 4.7, 3.9 and 3.7= 23.1; Career oWAR: 44.8]
*Tommy Harper [born 1940] played in the Majors from 1962 to 1976. He twice led the League in stolen bases (73 in 1969 and 54 in 1973). They were the only two seasons that he stole more than 40. After hitting 9 HRs in 1969, Harper blasted 31 in 1970. His second highest total was 18 in 1965. One year, Harper walked 95 times. His next highest total was 78. He was a good, sometimes very good, player but not consistently.
4) Dustin Pedroia [51.9 WAR], born 1983, career 2006-2019: Pedroia was very definitely traveling down the Hall of Fame Highway when his march to glory was “kneecapped.” On April 21st of 2017, Manny Machado whacked Pedroia’s left knee as Machado slid into second base on a simple force play. Oddly, Pedroia was stretching out like a first baseman to recieve the throw from the shortstop at the time. Machado had to slide right over the second base bag in order to spike Pedroia’s left knee. Even more strangely, the collision didn’t seem to be all that bad. It looked like Machado had just spiked the back of Pedroia’s left leg, not hitting his knee at all. But Pedroia’s knee was already compromised. Pedroia had already needed surgery to repair the left knee meniscus in October of 2016. Basically, the Machado slide kicked off an injury cascade for Pedroia’s injured left knee. Pedroia would eventually be forced to have knee replacement surgery after he retired. Would Pedroia have been easily elected to the Hall of Fame if his left knee injury had never happened? The answer is almost surely yes (unless he was sidetracked by some other injury). If he had continued to play uninjured, Pedroia would have ended his career with probably in excess of 70 WAR. With a Rookie-of-the-Year Award and also an MVP [2008] plus being the gritty heart and soul of two World Series winning teams [maybe more as he missed playing for the Red Sox 2018 Championship squad), Pedroia would have been a total lock for election to the BHOF. Because of the what might have been, Dustin Pedroia, unlike Ian Kinsler, will probably linger on the BHOF ballot for years to come.* The traditionalists have always seen Pedroia as a Hall of Famer & his statistics just got over the border line. [Top 5 WAR: 8.0, 7.0, 6.1, 5.6 and 5.4= 32.1; ; Top 5 oWAR: 6.2, 5.6, 4.6, 4.6 and 4.3= 25.3; Career oWAR: 41.4]
Although 2B Ian Kinsler beats Dustin Pedroia slightly in Career WAR [54.1 to 51.9], Pedroia’s top 5 WAR is considerably better [32.1 to 28.7]. Interestingly, Pedroia’s career path was interrupted significantly by injury more than just once. In 2013, Pedroia played the entire season with a ligament injury to his thumb and it robbed him of his power in both 2013 and 2014. Next year in 2015, he only played 93 games due to a right hanstring strain.
5) Felix Hernandez [49.7 WAR], born 1986, career 2005-2019: King Feliz poses an interesting conundrum. As starting pitchers have gradually thrown every pitch harder and harder, the total number of innings that starting pitchers could throw each year has come down and down. Surely, this reduction in annual innings thrown by starters cannot go on and on forever (unless the rosters are increased). Perhaps that limit is now being approached? For the forseeable future, the top starters will probably be making 30-32 starts per season and hurling 180 to 200 innings pitched [IP].* If King Felix Hernandez had played his full career under this type of pitching regime, would he have lasted longer? The answer is almost surely yes. While IP totals fell off the table, Hernandez was somewhat brutally used by the Seattle Mariners. He pitched 191 innings at the age of 20 in 2006. From 2006 to 2015, Hernandez started 30+ games every year. He pitched over 230 IP from 2009 to 2012 and also in 2014. At the age of 30 in 2016, his arm simply wore out. Of course, compared to just slightly earlier in the Baseball timeline, this doesn’t look like much. In the 1960s, pitchers threw over 300 IP. In the 1990s, they were still throwing 250+ IP. But, in context, 230 IP in the 2010s was like 275 to 300 in the 1990s or 300 to 350 in the 1960s. So what would have happened if the Mariners had started King Felix in the bullpen at first and then kept his IP down from 2006 to 2015? The smart money would be on Hernandez still pitching (and pitching well) today. In real life, his arm did not come back from all this wear and tear. Hernandez retired after sitting out the 2020 Covid season. If he had been able to come back and hurl some average seasons after Covid, the bulk IP would have eventually helped his BHOF case. Doomed by all this overuse, Felix Hernandez is now doomed to linger on the BHOF ballot. [Top 5 WAR: 7.2, 6.4, 5.9, 5.3, 5.1= 29.9]
*Of course, some teams have talked about going on (or even briefly tried) a six man pitching rotation. Now it looks like the Los Angeles Dodgers may actually try to stay on one for the entire 2025 season. If this strategy takes hold, the maximum IP by starting pitchers even may fall to 135 to 162 IP in 25 to 27 starts. It goes without saying the Felix Hernandez would have pitched even better under that usage pattern.
6) Curtis Granderson [47.2 WAR], born 1981, career 2004-2019: In retrospect, Curtis Granderson had one hell of a career, even if it was quite a Doctor Jekyll and Mister Hyde affair. The highlights are fascinating. In his first full season of 2006, Granderson lead the American League in strikeouts [174]. A lot of Swing and miss would always be a part of his game [1,916 career SOs]. In 2007, he exploded on the game, looking like Rickey Henderson with less walks, not as much speed, but maybe even more power. He led the League in triples with 23, stole 26 bases and was caught only once, batted .302, and scored 122 runs. After another year like that in 2008 (only not as good), he began to change into a low average power hitter. By 2011 (41 HRs, 119 RBI, .262 BA) and 2012 (43 HR, 106 RBI, .232 BA), this metamorphis was complete. In 2013, he was injured (fractured right forearm and then broken left pinkie finger, both after being hit by pitches) and played badly. From 2014 to 2019, Granderson played out his career as a low average, power hitting slugger. Modern statistics love Granderson’s game (a left handed, pull hitting center fielder who would take a walk). Old school stats probably get stuck on his low average, hang over the plate in a crouch to pull homers and draw walks, style. Curtis Granderson was much closer to be deserving of a BHOF place than seemed likely at first glance. Hopefully he will be rewarded with a long linger on the ballot. [Top 5 WAR: 7.6, 6.1, 5.1, 4.4 AND 4.4= 27.6; ; Top 5 oWAR: 6.4, 6.2, 4.8, 4.2 and 3.8= 25.4; Career oWAR: 43.6]
7) Troy Tulowitzki 44.5 WAR, born 1984, career 2006-2019: Troy Tulowitski, if fate had been kinder, would have just retired at the end of the 2024 season at the age of 40 to await his eventual induction to the BHOF. He goes on the Conigliaro list: players who had a certain Hall of Fame trajectories derailed by injury.* Tulowitzki was basically a star player from his first full season in 2007 until his injury in 2014. And he also played in the mile-high thin-air of Colorado for the Rockies. This made his statistics look way better than they actually were. However, in 2014, he hurt his hip so badly that it derailed his career. Sadly, Tulowitzki was in the middle of his greatest campaign at the time of the injury. [Top 5 WAR: 6.8, 6.7, 6.5, 6.2, and 5.7= 31.9, but Tulo was on his way to about a 9.0 to 10.0 bWAR total when injuries overwhelmed him in 2014; Top 5 oWAR: 5.2, 4.8, 4.8, 4.7 and 4.7= 24.2; Career oWAR: 34.2]
*Tony Conigliaro had his career destroyed by an errant fastball to his left eye in 1969. After his age 29 season, Derek Jeter had accumulated 40.6 WAR in 1212 games. After his age 29 season, Troy Tulowitzki had accumulated an impressive total of 37.7 WAR in 961 games. Per game, Tulowitzki was actually better player than Jeter at that point. But staying healthy and posting is a skill too.
8) Ben Zobrist [44.5 WAR], born 1981, career 2006-2019: Ben Zobrist is the type of player that WAR loves. He walked a lot, hit for decent power, had some speed, played good defense, etc. Basically, Zobrist had across the board skills but no one talent that really stood out. He wasn’t a batting champion, didn’t walk 100+ times a year, never scored or batted in 100 or more runs a year, wasn’t a flashy defensive player, and never hit 40 bombs in a season. But, at his peak in 2009 and 2011, Zobrist was a WAR superstar. Old school stats were not as impressed. But what will really keep Zobrist out of the BHOF is simply the fact that he didn’t play his first full season in the Majors until he was 28-years-old. It isn’t really discussed much but the determining factor in many BHOF borderline cases is simply whether the player entered pro ball out of High School or College. If he had signed out of high school, Zobrist may have been a regular in the Major Leagues three or four (or even five) years before he did. Assuming he played to his talent level in those years, his career WAR would have probably been in the 60s (or higher). His case for the Hall of Fame would be much stronger.* In fact, he would have a whole chorus of WAR loving writers backing his candidacy. But Ben Zobrist entered pro ball after graduating from College and now his candidacy is on life support. [Top 5 WAR: 8.6, 7.6, 5.8, 5.2 and 4.6= 31.8; Top 5 oWAR: 6.1, 5.7, 5.4, 4.3 and 4.0= 25.5; Career oWAR: 39.2]
*Oddly enough, Ben Zobrist may have lost some WAR in the twilight of his career too. In 2019, after a good year in 2018, the 38-year-old Zobrist had his career pretty much stopped cold by his divorce (allegedly his wife had an affair with his pastor – who was also accused of misappropriating some funds from Zobrist’s charity). Of course, Zobrist was 38 at that point so the end of his career was around the corner but he may have been able to tack on two or maybe even three more years of some production.
9) Russell Martin [38.9 WAR], born 1983, career 2006-2019: There are two competing versions of WAR. The most common version is the Baseball Reference website brand (bWAR). The much less common version is the Fangraphs website variety (i.e. fWAR). As far as career bWAR goes, the Baseball Reference version lists Russell Martin with all of 38.9 career WAR. This would be right in line with Martin’s reputation when he was an active player. A quality catcher, perhaps a minor star, but certianly not headed to the Hall of Fame (although, if anything, his 38.9 WAR is surprisingly good and on the cusp of BHOF consideration). On the other hand, the Fangraphs version of fWAR lists Russ Martin with 54.5 WAR! This total would actually qualify Russell Martin for serious BHOF consideration (especially since he is a catcher). It is certainly not far over the minimum, but it is solidly over the 50 WAR line. In most cases, there is not such a large discrepancy between bWAR and fWAR. So why is there such a large divergance here? Fangraphs seems to be giving Russell Martin enormous credit for framing pitchs (the ability to fool an umpire into calling balls as strikes). Of course, the Lords of Baseball are going to legislate this ability away with the institution of Robot umpires and/or strike and ball challenges. However, like most changes in Baseball, it is going to hapen at a glacier like pace. Much like Ross Barnes,* Russell Martin should not be getting into the Hall of Fame for an ability that 1) never should have been allowed in the rule book or on the field & 2) will soon be legislatated away. [Top 5 bWAR: 5.7, 5.6, 4.1, 3.9 and 3.2= 22.5 (Top 5 WAR by Fangraphs: 7.3, 6.1, 5.5, 5.4 and 5.0= 29.3); ; Top 5 oWAR: 4.3, 3.9, 3.8, 3.2 and 2.5= 17.7; Career oWAR: 33.1]
*Ross Barnes (played 1871-1882) was the best batter for the first six years (1871 to 1876) of professional baseball due to his ability to chop “fair fouls” (which initially landed fair and then spun foul). One tweak of the rules – a ball needed to stay fair until it passed either the first or third base bags or it was foul when it went foul – and Barnes’ skill disappeaed.
10) Hanley Ramirez [38.0 WAR], born 1983, career 2005-2019: Ramirez certainly had Hall of Fame talent and potential. But his path to the BHOF was derailed by some combination of the psychological (immaturity and a lack of commitment) and the physical (a relentless cascade of injuries). Basically his career peaked from the ages of 23 to 25 (2007-2009). If he had maintained that peak until he was about 33 or so, Ramirez would have a serious BHOF case. But he spent the rest of his career alternating between the injured list and letting himself get out of shape…except for one brief shining sunburst of talent. In 2013, the 29-year-old Ramirez was injured for the first half of the season. Returning for the second half, Ramirez went supernova and led the Los Angeles Dodgers, his club at that point, into the playoffs. If you double his 2013 Statistics, you get to see what a committed, uninjured Hanley Ramirez may have looked like: 608 AB, 124 R, 210 H, 50 2B, 4 3B, 40 HR, 114 RBI, .345 BA, .638 SA, 20 SB and also 10.4 WAR! After that performance, Ramirez roared into the playoffs with 8 hits in 16 at bats (4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR) for a .500 BA/1.063 SA but had his ribs fractured in 1st inning of the Championship Series, eventually removing him from the Series and ensuring that the Dodgers lost to St. Louis (who eventually lost the World Series to Boston). At the very least, there are probably more than twice as many players outside the Hall of Fame who had the talent but not the luck or mental fortitude to make it into the BHOF. Hanley Ramirez is definitely one of those guys. It is unlikely that Ramirez will see the 2026 ballot. [Top 5 WAR: 7.3, 6.7, 5.2, 4.9 and 4.4= 28.5; ; Top 5 oWAR: 7.2, 7.1, 7.1, 5.2 and 5.1= 31.7; Career oWAR: 49.6]
11) Adam Jones [32.6 WAR], born 1985, career 2006-2019: A good outfielder and minor star for a couple of seasons, the appearance of Adam Jones on the BHOF ballot is like a merit badge for good attendance at the Academy Awards. If the basic qualifiaction for the Baseball Hall of Fame is 50 WAR, a player would need to average 5.0 WAR each season for 10 straight years just to make this minimum. In Adam Jones’ very best two seasons, he was only credited with 4.8 WAR [2013 & 2014]. Jones is another old school pick for the BHOF ballot. His great weakness as a player was his inability to take his fair share of walks. In 2014, one of his peak seasons, Jones walked just 19 times but struck out 133 times. The odds that Adam Jones receives 5 percent of the vote in 2025 so that his candidacy can live to be voted on again next year are slim and none….and slim has moved out of state. [Top 5 WAR: 4.8, 4.8, 4.1, 3.5 and 3.1= 20.3; Top 5 oWAR: 5.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.8 and 3.5= 22.1; Career oWAR: 37.3]
12) Brian McCann [32.0 WAR], born 1984, career 2005-2019: Brian McCann is basically just Russell ‘The Pitch Framer‘ Martin 2.0 on the 2025 BHOF ballot. Like Martin (actually to an even greater extent), the website Fangraphs is giving McCann enormous credit for his ability to frame picthes (Fangraphs lists McCann with 52.1 WAR). Interestingly, according to Baseball Reference, Brian McCann was a better hitter than Martin over his career but a worse defensive catcher. According to Fangraphs, McCann was a better defensive catcher than Martin. Even more interesting is the fact that Fangraphs credits McCann with giant peak (much greater than any Russell Martin peak) from 2008 to 2011. In those four consecutive seasons, McCann was basically Yogi Berra….according to Fangraphs [26.8 WAR]. But, much like Russell Martin, Brain McCann should not be elected to the BHOF for the hard to measure and soon to be irrelevant skill of pitch framing. [Top 5 WAR: 5.5, 4.3, 3.6, 3.2 and 2.8= 19.4 (Top 5 WAR by Fangraphs: 8.3, 6.5, 6.0, 6.0 and 4.3= 31.1); ; Top 5 oWAR: 4.7, 4.4, 3.8, 3.7 and 2.9= 19.5; Career oWAR: 34.2]
13) Carlos Gonzalez [24.4 WAR], born 1985, career 2008-2019: Gonzalez is an old school choice for the BHOF ballot. In 2010, he won the National League batting crown (.336). In 2015, he hit 40 home runs (exactly 40). But Gonzalez spent almost all of his career playing for the Colorado Rockies. During his time in the Majors, he hit 143 HR with a .319 BA and .581 SA at home (mostly in the Rocky Mountains). On the Road, he was not anywhere near as good: 91 HR, with a .250 BA and .418 SA. Because of his short career and insane road/home splite, Gonzaleze is an idiosyncratic choice for the BHOF ballot. Carlos Gonazalez will pretty definitely be a one and done [only one year on the ballot and then off it because he does not get the required 5% of the vote]. [Top 5 WAR: 5.9, 5.1, 4.3, 2.6 and 2.3= 20.2; Top 5 oWAR: 5.8, 3.9, 3.4, 2.9 and 2.6= 18.6; Career oWAR: 22.5]
14) Fernando Rodney [7.4 WAR], born 1977, career 2002-2019: No offense to Fernando Rodney, who had a very long career as a relief pitcher [327 career saves, two peak years of 48 saves each], but a Committee promptly needs to be formed to investigate and sack the Committee that oddly recommended Fernando Rodney to the BHOF Committee that actually votes for the BHOF. In his 17 years in the Majors, Rodney had an ERA over 4.00 in 10 of them. He only had an ERA under 3.00 in just three different years. Of course, his 2012 season was pretty historic [76 games, 0.60 ERA, 48 saves] in a Roger Maris kind of relief pitcher way. So the year 2025 will almost surely be Fernando Rodney’s one and only year on the BHOF ballot. He may not get a single vote which would be cruel and underserved (unless he bribed someone to put his name on the ballot. Here is to hoping that he doesn’t get shut out and can say that he got a vote for the BHOF. [Top 5 WAR: 3.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9 and 0.8= 7.4, doubled 7.4, 2.0, 2.0, 1.8 and 1.6= 14.8; Career WARx2= 14.8*]
*As far as WAR is concerned, the Baseball Hall of Fame voting patterns for relief pitchers make absolutely no sense unless you double their WAR totals. Whether this is right or wrong is debatable. But, although it feels completely wrong, itt represents real world results well.
Wrap-up of the 14 Players New to the Ballot
The basic questions for the 14 players appearing on the BHOF ballot for the first time are: A) what will their percentage be; B) will they be elected; C) will they not be elected but receive enough votes [5%] to reappear on the 2026 ballot; or D) will they not be elected and be gone for good unless some odd future Veteran’s Committee takes pity on them? Predictions for the newbies: 1) Elected on the first ballot: Ichiro Suzuki; 2) Elected or almost Elected: CC Sabathia; 3) Retained for the 2026 ballot: Dustin Pedroia, Felix Hernandez, Troy Tulowitzki [for what might have been]; 4) On the edge of retention but probably falling into the oblivion of the Veteran’s Committees: Ian Kinsler [we don’t need no stinking WAR]; 5) One and Done: Russell Martin & Brian McCann [what is Fangraph’s smoking?], the great and unappreciated Curtis Granderson; the very versatile Ben Zobrist, the unfortunately unrealized potential of Hanley Ramirez [I coulda shoulda been a contender], steady Adam Jones, inflated Carlos Gonzalez, and Fernando [how did I get here] Rodney.
IV) Discussions of the 14 Players Who Are Returning to the 2025 BBWAA Ballot [Ranked by their percentage of the 2024 BBWAA vote]
For the Players returning to the BBWAA ballot from the 2024 election, WAR is no longer all that important. Basically the BBWAA has already evaluated & judged these players. The two most important criteron for the returnees is 1) How much support did they get in the previous election; 2) Do they still have momentum [their vote totals are still increasing]; and 3) Have they run out of time [will they have a last minute vote surge].
1) Billy Wagner [73.8% in his 10th and last year] 27.7 WAR: On the very cusp of election and in his last year before falling off the ballot, Billy Wagner is almost 99% sure of being elected in 2025. Whether this is a good or a bad thing depends on your perspective. Even by doubling his WAR, Wagner is barely qualified and he also has the dead weight of his horrific post-season performances. On the other hand, if the BBWAA doesn’t vote him in, it will smack of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown one more time. On a purely human level, they should let the poor man in rather than just throw him to the tender mercies of the dessicated Veteran’s Committees where he could twist in the winds for years uncounted. As always, it also bears mentioning that Billy Wagner was still one hell of a relief ace when he up and retired after the 2010 season at the age of 39 years young. It would have been interesting to see how long that Wagner could have lasted into his 40s. [Top 5 WAR: 3.8, 3.4, 2.8, 2.7 and 2.5= 15.2, doubled 7.6, 6.8, 5.6, 5.4 and 5.0= 30.4]; Career WARx2= 55.5]
*See comment of Relief Pitcher WAR under Fernando Rodney.
2) Andruw Jones [61.6% in his 8th year] 62.7 WAR: If Andruw Jones stalls in 2025 (his vote total doesn’t increase), his candidacy may be in trouble. It would indicate that his support has peaked. Jones is the poster boy for the WAR measurement’s defensive issues. WAR rates him as an incredibly great center fielder, nothing short of epic. The eyeball test certainly agrees that he was great before he got fat and his knees failed. But was he incredibly better than someone like Paul Blair or Garry Maddox? Or did Jones simply play with lousy right and left fielders and catch a lot of balls to cover over their deficiencies? If Jones had played between Blair and Maddox, it is very likely that his range factor would have been greatly diminished. Would this make him any less valuable as a center fielder? Unlike offense in Baseball (which is mostly individualistic), defense is a team statistic. WAR has a lot of problems coping with that quandary. If he does eventually get in, Jones’ election will be a triumph for the WAR metric over the traditionalists. [Top 5 WAR: 8.2, 7.4, 7.1, 6.7 and 6.5= 35.9; Top 5 oWAR 5.9, 5.1, 4.5, 4.5 and 3.9= 23.9; Career oWAR: 39.8]
3) Carlos Beltran [57.1% in his 3rd year] 70.1 WAR: Carlos Beltran would have already gone into the BHOF if it wasn’t for his participation in the Houston Astros’ 2017 sign stealing scandal. Like almost every other Baseball scandal, there is a lot of blame there that should have splattered the Owner(s) and the Commissioner (or whoever fronts for the Owners). Beltran is qualified & should have been elected to the BHOF already. Can you really blame Carlos for doing all he could do to win when the perception was that everyone was doing it? All that being said, he made good progress in just his second year on the ballot [46.5% to 57.1%]. Now in his third year on the ballot, the 2025 election will probably put him on the cusp if not all the way in. It will be interesting to see if Beltran leap frogs a stalled Andruw Jones. The election of Carlos Beltran to the BHOF is inevitable. [Top 5 WAR: 8.2, 7.0, 6.8, 6.5 and 5.8= 34.3; Top 5 oWAR: 7.0, 6.2, 5.9, 5.9 and 5.3= 30.3; Career oWAR: 66.6]
4) Alex Rodriguez [34.8% in his 4th year] 117.6 WAR: By WAR, Alex Rodriguez is an all-time great, inner circle Hall of Famer, and totally overly qualified for the BHOF. His steroid usuage and behavior covering it up will keep him out. No reason to shed any tears over this. Rodriguez, like Pete Rose and Joe Jackson for the sin of gambling, can best serve the beautiful game of Baseball by being a warning about the consequences of cheating the game in this manner. His candidacy is stalled out and will time out in six years. It can remain swinging on the gallow’s pole as an example until the very end. [Top 5 WAR: 10.4, 9.4, 9.4, 9.4, 8.8= 47.4 with a next five of 8.5, 8.4, 8.3, 7.6 and 6.8= 39.6…ridiculous; Top 5 oWAR: 9.5, 9.4, 9.2, 8.9, 8.7= 45.7; Career oWAR: 115.3]
5) Manny Ramirez [32.5% in his 9th year] 69.3 WAR: The candidacy of Manny Ramirez is also doomed by the taint of steroids. But it is very interesting to contrast his case with that of Alex Rodriguez. When Rodriguez was accused, he lied and slandered others about it. He even threw one of his own family members under the bus. He never accepted any responsibility unless it was shoved down his throat. On the other hand, Ramirez simply stated that he had done it and he was sorry. Like Alex Rodgriguez, Manny Ramirez is totally over-qualified for the BHOF but his candidacy is stalled and will eventually time out. But he should, if there was justice in the world, be receiving more support than A-Rod. [Top 5 WAR: 7.3, 6.0, 6.0, 5.4, 5.3= 30.0; oWAR: 7.1, 6.4, 6.4, 6.3 and 6.0= 32.2; Career oWAR: 81.8]
6) Chase Utley [28.8% in his 2nd year] 64.5 WAR: If Chase Utley makes good progress in his second year on the ballot, his eventual election is probably assured. Utley had a pretty ferocious peak from 2005 to 2009 (his age 26 to 30 seasons) and then struggled in the rest of his 30s with injuries, many of them from playing all out. Utley is another player who would have almost surely been elected easier if he had began his career after High Scool rather than college. The beginning of his peak at age 26 was also his first full year in the Majors. The smart money says Utley is going to take a rocket ride up and be elected within the next two or three years. [Top 5 WAR: 9.0, 8.2, 7.8, 7.3 and 7.3= 39.6; Top 5 oWAR: 7.0, 6.1, 6.0, 5.5 and 4.9= 29.5; Career oWAR: 51.3]
7) Omar Vizquel [17.7% in his 8th year] 45.6 WAR: Another scandal stalled & doomed candidacy, Omar Vizquel changes things up by not being guilty of steroids. Instead, he was accused in December 2020 of domestic abuse (by his second wife in the middle of their divorce) and then, in 2021, of sexual harassment during 2019 of an autistic bat boy (who worked for the Chicago White Sox minor league team that Vizquel was managing). These back-to-back scandals, and possibly the fact that WAR does not love him, destroyed Vizquel’s candidacy for the BHOF. His voting percentages, after looking very good, have collapsed: 1st year-37.0 [2018], 2nd-42.8 [2019], 3rd-52.6 [2020], 4th-49.1 [2021], 5th-23.9 [2022], 6th-19.5 [2023], and 7th-17.7 [2024]. If these two scandals had happened 5 or so years later, Vizquel would have already been elected. And that would have been that, there is no removal from the Baseball Hall of Fame. Now, he will remain stalled until he times out. [Top 5 WAR: 6.0, 4.0, 3.5, 3.5 AND 3.4= 20.4; Top 5 oWAR: 4.8, 3.7, 3.4, 3.3 and 3.1= 18.3; Career oWAR: 32.9]
8) Jimmy Rollins [14.8% in his 4th year] 47.6 WAR: More loved by traditional statistics than WAR, Jimmy Rollins has stayed on the ballot but made very little progress. Currently on course to eventually time out at ten years, it will be interesting to see if the eventual election of his double play partner, Chase Utley, does anything to boost his chances. Ofc ourse, if someone is putting double play combinations in the BHOF, that line should definitely start with getting Lou Whitaker in to pair with Alan Trammell [Top5 WAR 6.1, 5.5, 4.9, 4.7 and 4.6= 25.8; Top 5 oWAR: 5.7, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6 and 3.5= 20.3; Career oWAR: 43.7]
9) Bobby Abreu [14.8% in his 6th year] 60.2 WAR: There used to be a singer named Bobby Bland. For some reason, it is hard not to think of Bland when thinking about Bobby Abreu. With across-the-board skills (hit for average and power, take walks, steal bases, and not kill a team on defense), Bobby Abreu was a great player. But he played without flash and no one seems to have really thought of him as a Hall of Famer when he was active. For this sin, he is stuck in a type of BBWAA purgatory, good enough to get enough votes to stay on the ballot but not good enough to get any traction going towards his eventual election to the BHOF. His stats may lend themselves better to his election many years from now after reputation fades and the statistics are all that is left. [Top 5 WAR: 6.6, 6.4, 6.2, 6.1 and 5.8= 31.1; Top 5 oWAR: 6.5, 5.7, 5.7, 5.2 and 4.8= 27.9; Career oWAR: 61.6]
10) Andy Pettitte [13.5% in his 7th year] 60.2 WAR: It is unknown how much Andy Pettitte’s BHOF case is hurt by his admission in the Mitchell Report (about steroids in Baseball) that he took Human Growth Hormone [HGH]. But it must be substantial. Pettitte was pretty famous as part of the 1990s Yankee dynasty, he has excellent post-season statistics, and he is actually qualified to go into the BHOF. And yet, despite all this, Pettitte has had only lukewarm support so far. Pettitte has been evidently tarred by the Steroid scandal despite being tangential to it. This is just part of the weirdness of Baseball morality. It is like having the same exact punishment for any and all crimes [death] whether the crime is an unpaid ticket or manslaughter. If Pettitte can ever get past this, his 256-153 won/loss record (with another 19-11 in the post season) will be his ticket. As the years roll on, those 256 wins are going to look more and more formidable. [Top 5 WAR: 8.4, 6.8, 5.6, 3.8 and 3.6= 28.2]*
*Pettitte’s WAR is actally weird. He won 21 games twice. He had other years in which he won 19, 18, 17, 16, 15 twice and also 14 games four times. Unless he was injured, he just pumping out these number two starter seasons. In 13 different years, his WAR was between 2.1 and 3.8. But then he also had three monster WAR years, a 5.6 [21-8], a 6.8 [17-9], and a 8.4 [18-7]! So why did he have 3 seasons much much better than all the rest? Or is the WAR whacky?
11) Mark Buehrle [8.3% in his 5th year] 59.1 WAR: The pitching equivalent of Bobby “Bland” Abreu, Mark Buehrle was the essence of unflashy. A chunky unathletic-looking pitcher, Buehrle ground out one good year after another (his name, usually pronounced “Burly” was perfect). During his career, no one thought of him as a BHOF pitcher. You have to wonder just how many seasons of this type of good performance it would take to get him into the BHOF concervastion. Unfortunately, Buehrle retired at the age of 36 after the 2015 season in which he went 15-8. There were clear signs of decline though. Buehrle pitched only 198 innings in 2015 after pitching 200+ every season from 2001-2014. So far, his WAR score has kept him from falling off the ballot. But that is all it will do, no more. [Top 5 WAR: 6.1, 6.0, 5.3, 5.0 and 4.8= 27.2]
12) Francisco Rodriguez [7.8% in his 3rd year] 24.2 WAR: Francisco Rodriguez is the Roger Maris of saves, though no one has broken Rodriguez’s single season save record of 62 in 2008 yet. Of course, Maris was never elected to the BHOF. The election of Billy Wagner to the BHOF may help Rodriguez. By the BHOF rule of closers (double their WAR), Rodriguez is a borderline BHOF candidate. But he wasn’t as good as Wagner. If the line is drawn right after Billy Wagner, Rodriguez is out of luck. [Top 5 WAR: 3.7, 3.3, 2.5, 2.3 and 2.2= 14.0, doubled 7.4, 6.6, 5.0, 4.6, 4.4= 28.0; Career WARx2= 48.4]
13) Torii Hunter [7.3% in his 5th year] 50.7 WAR: A good outfielder and minor star for many years, Torii Hunter was a very consistent player. Showing what dedication and application can accomplish, Hunter continuously got better during his career. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of his career was the fact that he had his best year at the age of 36 (by WAR). His 2nd best year was at the age of 33. Hunter obviously kept himself in shape and defied the normal aging curve. As for the BHOF, Torii Hunter is right on the borderline by career WAR and doesn’t have a great peak as his alternative argument. But he has always had a reputation as a good guy. He will need every bit of it to get elected to the BHOF. [Top 5 WAR: 5.4, 5.3, 4.7, 4.2 and 3.9= 23.5; Top 5 oWAR: 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1 and 4.0= 20.6; Career oWAR: 47.4]
14) David Wright [6.2% in his 2nd year] 49.2 WAR: Met Third Baseman David Wright is another ‘What Might Have Been” candidate (like this year’s first ballott wannabe Troy Tulowitzki). Like so many other players, he was on a BHOF trajectory when a cascade of injuries knocked him off course. Wright suffered a concussion in 2009, followed by a lower back injury in 2011, and then had the rest of his career called off by spinal stenosis in 2015. Without all these injuries, there is very doubt that Wright would have been elected eventually. Even as it is, Wright made it right up to the BHOF borders [Top 5 WAR: 8.3, 7.1, 6.9, 5.2 and 4.8= 32.3; Top 5 oWAR: 7.2, 6.4, 6.0, 5.4 and 5.2= 30.2; Career oWAR: 51.9]
V) Discussions about the 8 Players Being Considered by the 2025 Classic Committee [Ranked by WAR]
The Classic Committee is one of three versions of the Veteran’s Committee currently being used. This Committee considers players overlooked by the BHOF who were active before 1980. The other two Committees consider (1.) players supposedly overlooked by the BHOF who were active after 1980 and (2.) umpires, managers, executives, and the guy who invented hot dogs. Of course, this Classic Committee is once again going over soil that has been well tilled and already harvested. Except for the 2 Negro League stars, the players being considered by this Classic Committee has been given chance after chance after chance to be elected to the BHOF. Each time, they have been found wanting (and even the 2 Negro League stars have been judged, found wanting, and not elected previously). Despite this, there are several players being considered who definitely deserve election to the BHOF. Of course, the Veteran’s Committees has the same reputation as a blind man playing darts. If they elect the right players, it will probably just be luck.
1) Luis Tiant [66.1 WAR], Playing Career 1964-1982: Luis Tiant, by the WAR metric, should already be a Hall of Famer. During his actual career, El Tiante did all the things that should have traditionally cemented his reputation as a Hall of Fame pitcher. He won 20 games multiple times and racked up two ERA titles. He starred in the World Series. He had style and panache with his Fu Manchu mustache, corkscrew wind-up, and cool nickname. He had a fascinating back story, being the son of a great Cuban pitcher (Luis Tiant Sr.) who had starred in the Negro Leagues. With modern metrics and traditional statistics supporting his candidacy, why isn’t Tiant already in the Baseball Hall of Fame? One of El Tiante’s problems is simply timing. In 1988, his 1st year on the BHOF ballot, he received 30.9% of the vote. Usually any player starting out with a percentage that high is certain to be eventually elected. Instead, in 1989, Tiant’s percentage of the BHOF ballots collapsed down to 10.5% of the votes. In Tiant’s entire fifteen years on the Ballot [1988-2002], he would never approach his initial 30.9% of the vote again. In those 15 years, the 2nd highest percentage that Luis Tiant ever received was 18.0% in his final year. From 1989 on, Tiant was simply buried under an avalanche of more deserving candidates, both players and epecially pitchers starting in 1989 with Gaylord Perry [314-265], Ferguson Jenkins [284-226], and Jim Kaat [283-237].* In 1989, Luis Tiant’s candidacy for the BHOF permanently stalled because of this bad timing and it has never recovered.
* Of course, whether Jim Kaat was better than Luis Tiant is debatable. But these 3 pitchers were followed up on the BHOF ballot by: Jim Palmer [268-152] in 1990; the also debatable Rollie Fingers [341 saves] in 1991; Terrific Tom Seaver [311-205] in 1992; Phil Niekro [318-274] in 1993; Steve Carlton [329-244] and Don Sutton [324-256] and Bruce Sutter [300 saves] in 1994; Tommy John [288-231] in 1995; Bert Blyleven [287-250] in 1998; Nolan Ryan [324-292] in 1999; Rich Gossage [310 saves] and Jack Morris [254-186] in 2000. This avalanche of future Hall of Famers buried Luis Tiant’s candidacy.
What happened to Jim Bunning shows exactly how bad Tiant’s timing was. In 1988, which was Tiant’s first year on the ballot, Bunning was in his 12th year on the ballot. That year Jim Bunning crested at 74.2% of the vote (his first year had been 1977 when he recieved 38.1% of the vote). It looked like his election was inevitable in 1989. Instead his candidacy was buried under the same avalanche of new candidates that wiped out Luis Tiant’s chances. In 1989, his 13th year, Bunning fell from 74.2% to 63.3%. In 1990, he fell all the way down to 57.9%. In 1991, his 15th and last year on the ballot, Bunning crept back up to 63.7% and then his candidacy expired.* Because he came so close in 1988, there was a groundswell of support for the unlucky pitcher. Jim Bunning was eventually elected to the BHOF in 1996 by the old Veteran’s Committee. Of course, El Tiante never came close to election and had the BHOF tell him: “No Cigar!” And Tiant never had any outpouring of support because he had been shafted. But it is interesting to compare the won/loss record of Jim Bunning [224-184] with that of Luis Tiant [229-172]. Bunning is by that record and the WAR metric, directly inferior to Tiant. When your candidacy is on the margins of the BHOF, it often simply comes down to luck. [Top 5 WAR: 8.5, 7.7, 6.5, 6.3 and 5.6= 34.6]
*BBWAA BHOF Candidates stayed on the ballot for 15 years at that time but it is currently 10 years.
2) Ken Boyer [62.8 WAR], Playing Career 1955-1969: Ken Boyer, like several players on the current BBWA ballot (Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, and Mark Buehrle) and somewhat like someone on this ballot (Tommy John), is cursed with a case of Bland Compiler Disease [BCD]. The symptoms of BCD are: 1) being an underrated very good to great player; 2) compiling enough WAR so that your statistics qualify for the BHOF but not overwhelmingly so; and 3) not having any type of organized supporters pushing for your election to the BHOF. One interesting thing to keep in mind about Boyer is that he lost two seasons to Military Service before he ever debuted in the Majors. If he had not served, Boyer would have started his Major League career one or two years earlier and his basic statistics would be better. Punishing a man for this seems unjust. But possibly the worst thing that happened for Boyer as far as the BHOF goes (not to mention himself) was that he died early. In 1982, Ken Boyer passed away from lung cancer. Because of his early death, Boyer has been largely forgotten unlike those players who continue in the game as managers, coachs, or broadcasters. This is a shame because Boyer definitely deserves to be elected. [Top 5 WAR: 8.0, 7.4, 6.8, 6.5 and 6.1= 34.8; Top 5 oWAR: 6.7, 6.7, 6.2, 5.5 and 5.3= 30.4; Career oWAR: 55.9]
3) Tommy John [61.6 WAR], Playing Career 1963-1989: Unlike Luis Tiant*, it is not that hard to understand why Tommy John has never been elected to the BHOF. John was a compiler of statstics extraordinaire without a great peak. However, the sheer volume of Tommy John’s career is outstanding. Because his famous elbow surgery bears his name, you could argue that Tommy John is as well-known as virtually any living baseball player (it is certainly better being known for Tommy John surgery than Lou Gehrig disease). In any case, if someone needed to place a bet to save their life on who would be elected to the BHOF by the Classic Committee in 2025, John would be your man. The election of Jim Kaat in 2022 paved the way for Tommy John to be elected. It is undeniable that John had a better career record than Kaat [John went 288 and 231 to Kaat’s 283 and 237]. Not only that, the Classic Committee will be under pressure to elect someone living. That leaves just three possibilities. Tommy John is by far the easier choice over the WAR under-qualified and scandal-plagued two other options, Steve Garvey and Dave Parker. [Top 5 WAR: 5.6, 5.5, 5.5, 5.1 and 4.4= 26.1]
*Tommy John won 288 games and lost 231 during his career. Luis Tiant went 229 and 172. In other words, John won exactly 59 more games than Tiant and also lost exactly 59 more games than Tiant.
4) Dick Allen [58.7 WAR], Playing Career 1963-1977: Virtually all professional athletes are very competitive people.* The very best athletes are usually able to structure their lives so that they can pour all their competitiveness into their chosen profession. Dick Allen is an example of a man who had to waste far too much of his competitve fire on struggles unrelated to sports. Reading through biographies of Allen, one gets the impression of a man at war, or at least struggling fiercely, with the daily injustices that society and his employers inflicted upon him. Nothing represents this better than the ridiculous amount of energy and time that Dick Allen had to spend telling people not to call him “Richie” because his name was “Dick” (also one of the great Baseball metaphors, though how one interprets it can vary). In some alternate universe, Dick Allen was able to concentrate all his talent on Baseball and is a legendary slugger, maybe even on par with Ruth, Williams, and Bonds. It is interesting to compare Allen with Albert Belle, a troubled man and incredible slugger from the 1990s (though Belle’s troubles were more psychological than societal). Belle would almost certainly be in the BHOF if his career hadn’t been prematurely ended by a hip injury, and he still gets some support anyways. Comparing their careers very broadly, Dick Allen played 1749 games, accumulated 58.7 WAR, and had an OPS+ of 156 while Belle played 1539 games, accumulated 40.1 WAR, and had an OPS+ of 144. At his peak in the 1990s, Belle was the only man in Baseball History to have a season with 50 doubles and 50 home runs in a season. Dick Allen was basically 17% better than that. It would have been fascinating to see what type of statistics Allen could have put in the 1990s rather than the run hungry and pitching dominated 1960s. [Top 5 WAR: 8.8, 8.6, 7.5, 6.4, 5.4= 36.7; oWAR 8.9, 8.8, 8.3, 7.2 and 6.9= 40.1; Career oWAR: 70.2]
*Allen, who has received 11 votes (exactly one short of the 12 necessary for election) in both of the last two Veterans Committee elections in which he was elligible, will surely be elected in 2025. He will be getting a Jim Bunning Hall Pass to the BHOF. Unfortunately, he is no longer with us to enjoy it or to give a speech that might make someone uncomfortable (which might be the point).
5) Dave Parker [40.1 WAR], Playing Career 1973-1991: At the beginning of his career, Dave Parker was certainly on a path to the Hall of Fame. The Pirates were a very good team, Parker grew into their best player, and they won the World Series in 1979. Dave Parker won the NL MVP in 1978 after finishing 3rd in both 1975 and 1978. He won back to back Batting Championships in 1977 and 1978. By the end of the 1979 season, he had accumulated an impressive 32.5 WAR and was probably going to end up with in excess of 70 or even 80 WAR if he aged well. If you were listing active Major Leaguers who would be going to the BHOF in the future at that point, Dave Parker would have been at the top of the list. But that was pretty much the end. He lost the next 5 years of his career to a cocaine addiction, his recovery from that addiction, and the ensuing legal problems [1980-1984]. In 1985 and 1986, Dave Parker had two rebound seasons [34 HR with 125 RBI plus a .312 BA in 1985 & 31 HR with 116 RBI plus a .273 BA in 1986]. But that was basically it. From 1980 to the end of his career, Parker earned only 7.6 WAR in 12 years. Parker got old and fat, wrecked his knees, and was just the ghost of his former great self. Moreawesome self. More importantly than this, many Hall of Fame voters have an indiscriminate moral streak. Between the voters who will not vote for Parker due to his low WAR total and those who will not vote for him on moral grounds, he has no chance of being elected in 2025 or any other year. [Top 5 WAR: 7.4, 7.0, 6.7, 6.3 AND 4.7= 32.1; Top 5 oWAR: 6.9, 6.4, 4.7, 4.6 and 4.1= 26.7; Career oWAR: 41.7]
6) Steve Garvey [38.0 WAR], Playing Career 1969-1987: Steve Garvey and Dave Parker should belong in their own little group. The members of this group would be players who were: 1) once thought to be inevitable BHOF inductees while they were active; 2) had their careers tarnished by scandal,* and 3) have had all their career accomplishments down-sized by the WAR statistic [Garvey’s sin according to WAR was not drawing enough bases on balls]. Like Parker, Steve Garvey has almost no chance of getting inducted but is still being pushed for the BHOF by traditionalist supporters who just don’t believe in the WAR metric. By traditional statistics, Steve Garvey has a much better case: 6 seasons of 200 or more hits in seven years (weirdly enough, 3 seasons with exactly 200 hits), 2599 career hits, 7 seasons of 162 (or more) games played (and another of 161), 5 years of 100+ runs batted in, and fantastic post season numbers (55G, 11 HR, .338 BA, .550 SA), plus the 1974 NL MVP (and runner up in 1978). This certainly seems to add up to a lot more than just 38.0 Career WAR. This conflict, between those who believe in the modern statistics and the traditionalists who do not (not to mention the immoral minority who think Baseball players should lead the celibate & sinless lives of saints) will keep Steve Garvey out of the BHOF for life (and beyond). [Top 5 WAR: 5.1, 4.7. 4.7, 4.4 and 3.8= 22.7; oWAR: 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, 4.3 and 3.3= 20.8; Career oWAR: 36.8]
*In 1988 and 1989, after a brutal divorce from his first wife, Steve Garvey impregnated one woman, then impregnated another woman and also got engaged to her, and then broke off that engagement to get engaged to yet another woman. In his defense, Garvey is still married to the third and last lady in this sequence.
7) John Donaldson [NA WAR], Playing Career 1908-1941: By reputation, John Donaldson was one of the greatest Negro League pitchers of All-Time (and the greatest left-handed pitcher). But his career was actually spent almost entirely outside the Negro Leagues (or even against the elite of Blackball before the Negro Leagues really began in 1920). Donaldson spent most of his career annihilating white semi-pro teams across the midwest for thirty years. The argument against him is pretty simple: how do you really know how good he was without any hard evidence? The evidence that is currently available doesn’t support Donaldson’s reputation at all. The Negro Leagues database Seamheads currently lists Donaldson’s career won/lost record in the Negro Leagues at 23 wins and 24 losses from 1916 to 1921.* And this was the middle or prime of his career. Was he just average? Fortunately, there is a mountain of other evidence about Donaldson’s career. A man named Peter Gorton from Minnesota runs a website named The John Donaldson Network. This fabulous website has chronicled Donaldson’s actual career, in amazing depth (if only all Negro League stars had such a website). Does this website lend any support to Donaldson’s reputation?
*John Donaldson’s complete career record currently on Seamheads is 23-25 with a record of 23-24 between 1915 and 1921. He is credited with one extra loss in 1932.
The answer is yes, it does. For a small example, an analysis of Donaldson’s Seamheads 23-25 record is quite interesting. Seamheads lists Donaldson’s ERA+ [a measure of the quality of John’s pitching adjusted for ballpark and compared to his opponents] as 123 [or comfortably above average].* This would indicate that he should have had a record of about 29-19 rather than 23-25. So why is it only 23-25? A start by start analysis reveals a fascinating answer. In general, John Donaldson was only starting games against the top Blackball teams and the very best pitchers available (in 1918, he pitched an entire series of games vs. Smokey Joe Williams). Basically, Donaldson, who was probably the most famous African-American pitcher in the country, was being featured in match-ups to draw a crowd. Donaldson was not pitching in a regular rotation. In proper context, his 23-25 record on Seamheads is actually pretty impressive (even more impressive than 29-19 in reality). Of course, this still doen’t mean that his performance from this brief window can be extrapolated over his entire 30 years career. Perhaps one day there will be enough computer power to really data mine the evidence collected by Peter Gorton. But, at the moment, there aren’t any available computer experts to do this task. So a simpler, much more broad, method must be found to evaluate the career of John Donaldson.
*ERA+ [Adjusted Earned Run Average]: A percentage representing a pitcher’s Earned Run Average (the number of runs given up per 9 innings by a pitcher not caused by fielding errors) accounting for the ballpark and League ERA. A percentage of 100 is average, above 100 above average, below 100 etc.
So what would be the best direct argument that John Donaldson was one of the greatest pitchers of all-time?* In 1951, the African-American newspaper The Pittsburgh Courier assembled a panel of 31 Blackball veterans, experts and executives to rate the best players from the expiring world of the Negro Leagues. These men selected the 5 best Black pitchers from their time as: 1) “Smokey” Joe Williams, 2) Leroy “Satchel” Paige, 3) Charles “Bullet” Rogan, 4) John Donaldson, and 5) William “Bill” Foster. The 7 pitchers selected after this top 5 were: Dave Brown, Richard “Dick” Redding, James “Nip” Winters, William “Dizzy” Dismukes, Don Newcombe, and Andrew “Rube” Foster. There is one caveat to this list. The panel was supposed to limit their selections to players who were active from 1910 on. Rube Foster was at his peak in the decade from 1900-1909. This may have reduced his support (he also picked up many votes as a manager which may have also lessened his vote total). Rube Foster should probably be included with the other pitchers in the top five. Interestingly, in the years after Organized Baseball integrated, players inducted into the BHOF were split roughly 50-50 between Black/Latin and white players (in other words, exactly between the two sides of segregated Baseball). If this fact remained true for before integration, who would the white comps for these Negro League pitchers be? And, if this fact was also true before integration, it would also be an excellent broad argument about John Donaldson’s greatness.
Smokey Joe Williams is easy. While active, he was often compared to Walter Johnson [166.9 career WAR]. Paige is also easy. His career and that of Lefty Grove have quite a lot in common [106.8 WAR].* But Rogan is hard. He was basically a unicorn like current day Shohei Ohtani, both a great pitcher and hitter. The only man remotely like Rogan in the 1920s was Babe Ruth. But Rogan would have surely been at least close to a 100 WAR pitcher if he had spent his entire career in the Majors. Rube Foster is a dead comp for Christy Mathewson [106.7 WAR]. All these men, like Donaldson, pitched for around 20 years. Bill Foster, Brown, and Winters are somewhat different. None of these men lasted twenty years pitching. Their comps would all be pitchers who dominated more briefly like Carl Hubbell (68.5), Charles “Dazzy” Vance [60.3], or Wes Ferrell [60.1]. Dick Redding is odd in his own way. His comps would be pitchers like James “Hippo” Vaughn [46.8], Rube Marquard [32.5], and Jeff Tesreau [24.3] if you combined them all into one pitcher. Dismukes comps with such long time hurlers as Charles “Red” Farber [63.8] or Eppa Rixey [55.9]. Of course, Don Newcombe played in the Major Leagues. While there, he accumulated 38.7 WAR. However, he missed two years (plus really another year to re-establish himself) to Military Service and would have also started his career 2 or 3 (or more) years earlier without discrimination. Newcombe would have probably finished his career with 55-60 WAR without all these detours. So what does all this mean, if it is true?
*Robert “Lefty” Grove pitched for the minor league Baltimore Orioles of the International League from 1920 to 1924. The Orioles refused to sell Grove to the Major Leagues during this time. If this had not happened, Grove would have most likely accumulated 120 to 130 WAR during his career.
The Pittsburgh Courier experts who judged Negro League pitchers placed John Donaldson in the same League as Joe Williams, Satchel Paige, Bullet Rogan, Bill Foster and also his brother Rube. They judged Donaldson to be an even better pitcher than Dave Brown, Dick Redding, Nip Winters, Dizzy Dismukes and Don Newcombe. All these pitchers could be very broadly rated by WAR and their comps with some mathematical analysis. Basically, saying John Donaldson was as good as Williams, Paige, Rogan and either of the Fosters was the equivalent of saying that he would not look out of place in the company of Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Christy Mathewson and even Babe Ruth. And Donaldson himself has a comp. There was another pitcher who amassed 100+ WAR during the 1910s and 1920s and continued to pitch in the 1930s. That would be Grover “Pete” Alexander [119.6 WAR]. Of course, John Donaldson and Grover Alexander are hardly perfect comps. Alexander was more of a control pitcher who liked his whiskey while Donaldson was more of a strikeout pitcher who was a fine upstanding citizen off the field.* What does all this mean? Basically, it means that, even if he was 10% (or maybe even 20%) worse than the experts of the Pittsburgh Courier classed him, they judged John Donaldson to be a career 100+ WAR pitcher. This also makes John Donaldson most likely the greatest player on either of the 2025 BHOF ballots with all due respect to Alex Rodriguez and Ichiro Suzuki. The Hall of Fame is incomplete without him. [Projected Career WAR: 115-125]
*Grover Alexander did lead the National League in strikeouts six times and had very good speed when he was young. But John Donaldson had a Koufax like back breaking curve ball as a strikeout pitch to back up his excellent fastball. It is unlikely that Donaldson could match Alexander’s control but who could? Alexander’s control was otherworldly.
8) Vic Harris [NA WAR], career 1924-1945: Vic Harris will most probably be the next Negro Leaguer elected to the BHOF. In the 2022 vote by the Classic Baseball Era Committee, Harris received 10 votes from the 16 ballots cast (in other words, he was two votes shy of being elected). John Donaldson, the other Negro League player on that ballot, received 8 votes. Donaldson, of course, would be elected as a pitcher. But Vic Harris is going to elected to the BHOF as a field manager rather than a player. Some of his supporters suggest that Harris was good enough to be elected as an outfielder too. But this actually doesn’t seem to be true. Vic Harris played in the Negro Major Leagues from 1922 to 1947 [ages 17 to 42]. His primary position was left field. If he had played his entire career in the Major Leagues unblocked, Harris could have been a starting outfielder from 1924 to 1938 [for 14-15 seasons]. Of course, in real life, Harris may have been blocked out of a job early in his career and possibly stuck in Triple-A. Under those conditions, Harris may have reached the Majors any year between perhaps 1924 and 1928. On the other end, Vic Harris would have had a hard time holding onto a starting job in the Major Leagues from 1939 to 1943 (his last full time season in the Negro Leagues). It is more likely that he would have been a part-timer or returned to the Minors. A very cursory analysis of Harris’ career suggests a player who would have amassed 30 to 40 WAR during his time spent in the Majors. This is not a bad total. But, as an outfielder, Harris would have to stand in line behind a bunch of much better qualified contempories such as: Fats Jenkins, Roy Parnell, Rap Dixon, Nat Rogers, Bill Wright, and Neil Robinson (not to mention Latin players like Tetelo Vargas).
So the crux of Vic Harris’ BHOF Candidacy rests on his managerial record. This record is, to put it mildly, damn impressive. According to Seamheads, Vic Harris managed the Homestead Grays of Pittsburgh (and from 1939 on, Washington too) from 1936 to 1942, and then again from 1945 to 1948. The Grays’ record while Harris managed them was reportedly an incedible 639 Wins, 323 Losses, and 28 Ties in 989 Games [for a .664 Winning Percentage]. With the Negro Leagues now being considered Major Leagues, this is the highest winning percentage of any long term manager. It certainly seems like it is past due to elect Vic Harris to the BHOF as a manager. But there is a problem here. In his autobiography, Buck Leonard has some things to say about Vic Harris as a manager, none of them all that good (it is very obvious that Leonard didn’t like Harris much). But the bigger problem is something that is inherent to the Negro Leagues: cold hard cash. In the early years of Major League Baseball, frugality reigned. For instance, John McGraw of the New York Giants is famous for being their field manager. But he was also their part owner, general manager, traveling secretary, and chief scout in the beginning. As more money became available, McGraw was one of the men who eventually developed all these positions into separate jobs (and he also hired coaches galore). For a long time, Cum Posey filled McGraw’s situation for the Homestead Grays. In 1935-1936, Posey began delegating these positions to others. His brother Seward Posey became the traveling secretary and Vic Harris became the field manager. But was this position as we would understand it today? Or was it more like that of a road manager? It is apaprent that Posey stopped being the full-time field manager because he no longer wanted to travel around. How did this play out in real life?
There is a chance that Vic Harris was more like a road manager/traveling secretary than a full-time field manager. It is hard to picture Cum Posey, who was a control freak, not micro-managing the team from above. There are also indications that, if Posey was present, he was managing the team and Harris was taking a back seat. Cum Posey has already been elected to the BHOF in 2006. In other words, the real manager of the Homestead Grays dynasty may already be in the Hall. Before Vic Harris is elected, perhaps it should be determined to some degree of certitude what actually was his role? Was he a passenger on the bus or was he driving it? It is also pretty interesting to note that Vic Harris did not manage the Homestead Grays in 1943 and 1944. Harris got a defense job and played a little for the Grays on weekends and such. Cum Posey hired Candy Jim Taylor to manage the club in 1943 and 1944. Taylor, formerly a star third baseman, had for many years been a John McGraw type baseball executive. If someone wanted to own a baseball team, they hired Candy Jim to be the general manager, chief scout, field manager, coach, and even ticket taker if needed. During the 2nd World War (1942-1945), the Negro Leagues were very profitable. Posey was able to hire someone to really fill all the roles he once filled. Taylor did a good job. The Homestead Grays won two more pennants in 1943 and 1944 & compiled a 144 wins, 55 losses, and 5 ties record. Of course, this is a remarkable .724 winning percentage. In other words, the team did better without Vic Harris aboard. But Cum Posey was dissatisfied with Taylor and brought Vic Harris back in 1945. Why couldn’t Posey get along with Candy Jim, considering the results? The question remains: was Vic Harris a field manager or some sort of assistant manager for Cum Posey? Vic Harris shouldn’t be elected to the BHOF until this question is answered. [Projected Career WAR: 30-40]
*Buck Leonard, Baseball Hall of Fame first baseman for the Homestead Grays from 1934-1950, wrote his biogrpahy (published in 1995) with the help of Negro League historian James Riley. It is an interesting book about a fascinatingly honest man.
VI) Conclusion: The 36 Player Ranked 2025 BHOF Ballot.
The following list ranks the players eligible for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2025 all the way from 1 to 36. Of course, this list will (probably) have very little correlation to who actually gets in the BHOF this year (other than the fact that whoever gets in will definitely be on it somewhere). The Endless Fields of Green blog official actaul 2025 BHOF class prediction is: 1) Ichiro Suzuki, 2) CC Sabathia, 3) Billy Wagner, 4) Dick Allen and 5) Tommy John (with the forlorn hope that John Donaldson gets in too).
The List: Elligible 2025 BHOF Inductees Ranked 1-34 by Merit
A. Players of Inner Circle BHOF Quality
1) John Donaldson
2) Alex Rodriguez [Tainted]
3) Ichiro Suzuki
B. Players of No Dount BHOF Quality
4) Manny Ramirez [Tainted]
5) Dick Allen
6) Luis Tiant
7) Carlos Beltran [Semi-tainted]
C. Players of Upper Tier BHOF Quality
8) Ken Boyer [extra credit for Military Service]
9) CC Sabathia
10) Chase Utley
11) Bobby Abreu
12) Andy Pettitte [Semi-tainted]
13) Tommy John
D. Players of Lower Tier BHOF Quality
14) Mark Buehrle
15) Billy Wagner
16) David Wright
17) Andruw Jones
18) Felix Hernandez
19) Dustin Pedroia
20) Francisco Rodriguez
21) Ian Kinsler
E. Players Right Below BHOF Quality
22) Hanley Ramirez
23) Curtis Granderson
24) Torii Hunter
25) Dave Parker
26) Ben Zobrist
27) Jimmy Rollins
F. Players of Debatable BHOF Quality
28) Troy Tulowitzki
29) Russell Martin [extra credit for Catching]
G. Players Not of BHOF Quality
30) Steve Garvey
31) Omar Vizquel
32) Brian McCann [extra credit for Catching]
33) Vic Harris [no credit for Managing]
34) Adam Jones
35) Carlos Gonzalez
36) Fernando Rodney
Note on the Rankings: These rankings correspond to WAR in the following manner: A) 90 or above; B) 60-89.9 WAR; C) 55-59.9 WAR; D) 50-54.9 WAR; E) 45-49.9 WAR, F) 40-44.9 WAR and G) below 40 WAR. But the WAR values have been slightly reconfigured to emphasize peak, de-emphasive defense, and reward 10% extra for being a catcher. Ken Boyer was also given some extra credit for Military Service, which moved him from slot 10 to 8. Because of this emphasis on these slightly different metrics: 1) Manny Ramirez moved up (minimizing his horrible defense) and Andruw Jones fell down (without all the credit for his supposedly supernatural defense). Perhaps the most interesting result was that Steve Garvey’s position remained unchanged. It seemed like he should rise if defense was minimized. But Garvey did not as WAR gives him good credit for his defense. Perhaps the inbred 1B positional adjustment is off? Or perhaps he really just wasn’t good enough? If only by his reputation, it seems like Garvey should be in the BHOF discussion.