Baseball’s Basic Math: New York Yankees
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm. Ralph Waldo Emerson
June 12, 2024
Introduction
From May 24th [San Diego Padres] to May 30th [Atlanta Braves], all the teams in the Major Leagues played their 54th game of the 2024 season. For reasons no longer completely clear to me, I spent from May 25th to June 10th writing 30 team summaries for the first third of the 20204 season. By the time that I was done, the summaries were slightly to considerably out of date. Instead of simply publishing them all at once after the expiration date, I decided to post them one at a time with an update. I’ll begin with the NY Yankees because: 1) it was the longest essay and 2) took up the most time. One last explanation: I wanted to rank the teams 1 through 30. This was made difficult by the simple fact that: 2 teams ended the first third at 31-23; 6 teams finished at 27-27; five teams finished at 25-29; etc. So I used a formula to differentiate. For Example, the Yanks below finished the first third at 37-17. If they kept that pace for the entire season they would finish 111-51. But their Pythagorean record actually would come out to 115-47.* The ranking is based on doubling their projected wins (111 x 2) and then adding in their Pythagorean wins (115 x 1) for a total of 337. The Yankees finished a close second to the Philadelphia Phillies using this completely arbitrary system. In any case, here is the Yankee essay which was also the first finished on May 28th.
*Pythagorean projection based on Runs Scored Squared/(Runs scored squared + Runs scored against squared). In the first third, the NY Yankees scored 264 runs while giving up just 169. Their offense was sixth but their defense was first by a considerable margin.
Out of Date Yankee Essay (played their 54th game on May 25th]
Essay 2. New York Yankees 37-17 [Pace 111-51/Pythagoras 115-47/~337].
What a difference a year makes. The Yanks, destroyed in 2023 by injury after injury, have had much better health this year. The Yankees’ only main injury in 2024, to starter Gerrit Cole, has been completely mitigated by the emergence of 2 good starting pitchers: Luis Gil (projected 18-3 and 6.0 WAR)* and also Clarke Schmidt (p 15-6 and 4.8 WAR). The free agent signee Marcus Stroman (p 12-6 and 2.76 ERA), a healthy Carlos Rodon (p 18-6 and 2.95), and Nelson Cortes (p 9-12 but 3.29) have combined with both Gil and Schmidt to give the Yankees the best pitching staff in the Majors. With 5 healthy starters, a decent bullpen, and Clay Holmes emerging as a great closer (p 69 games, 1.57 and 45 saves), the pitching was the backbone of the Yankees impressive start. The offense hasn’t been bad either. The trade for Juan Soto (p 42 HR-129 RBI-.309 BA/8.1 WAR) was predictably good. Aaron Judge, after a slow start, has turned back the clock to 2022 (p 162 G/54 2B/51 HR/117 RBI/.280 BA/.637 SA and 9.9 WAR). Giancarlo Stanton (p 39-87-.250/.509/1.5 WAR) has contributed rather than disintegrated. The trade for Alex Verdugo (p 18-81-.261) has lengthened the line-up. But the smartest move made by the Yanks was letting Anthony Volpe struggle through the 2023 season. Now a seasoned player, Volpe has given the Yankees an additional superstar (p 18-69-.282/105 runs scored/30 stolen bases). Volpe is projected to have a 7.5 WAR season in 2024. Even if he fades, Volpe has almost surely become the third best Yankee after Judge and Soto. From the ashes of 2023, this championship season is rising.
*Statistics in these third of a season essays are usually projected over a full year (in other words, multiplied by 3). Projected stats are listed with an initial “p.” If there is no “projected” designation or “p” notation, these are the actual stats.
Outlook for the rest of 2024: The Yankees almost feel like a team of destiny at this point. They could even improve a bit if Anthony Rizzo (p 21-75-.250) and Gleyber Torres (p 12-48-.222) return to form. There is even the possibility the Stanton has untapped reserves (he is projected for just 36 walks this season, possibly a sign of impatience). Stanton has always been a streaky player. He could go on a tear. The Yankees offense may actually be under-performing too. Their statistics indicate that the Yanks should have the best offense in the Majors. The team OPS+ is 774, first over the Dodgers (765) and Phillies (752). But the main reason to believe in the Yankees comes down to two things: 1) Gerrit Cole is evidently OK and coming back and 2) there are signs that Aaron Judge (absent injury) may actually be on his way to a better season than he had in 2022. I watch a lot of Yankee games. Judge looks totally relaxed and locked in. He does not have to worry about his next contract. He will not have the added pressure of trying to break the American League home run record. The Yankees are playing fantastically well. There is an old saying that a rising tide lifts all boats. I think that the Yanks and Judge are a closed circuit. Judge will ascend as the Yankees rise and the Yankees will ascend as Judge rises. I think there is a good chance that Judge re-breaks his own AL HR record. It may even be in the cards for Judge to take a run at Bonds. It probably will not happen, but beautiful dreams are just that until they become reality.
New York Yankees 2024 Update [June 13]: Record 49-21 [12-4 since 54].
The Yankees rampage continues. Clarke Schmidt’s recent injury (oblique) has not even slowed them down. Cody Poteet, a career minor leaguer, stepped in and has filled in remarkably (great and good teams are often distinguished by obscure minor leaguers having terrific years). The arrival of Gerrit Cole is right around the corner now. When Schmidt returns, the Yanks will have excellent pitching depth to deal with injuries. The Yanks have actually accelerated since the end of the first third. For the most part, all the players, with one exception, are playing at about the same pace. But the one exception is huge. After 54 games, Aaron Judge was hitting .280/.413/.637 with 17 homers. In 15 games since (16 team games, he took one off), Judge has crunched 8 more HRs and is now slashing .306/.443/.702 and is on pace for a 12.0 WAR season (up from just 9.9 projected WAR after 54 games). It is often said that Aaron Judge is the consummate team player. It certainly looks like he is feeding off the Yankee’s success this year. He is always smiling. History awaits.