Holier than Thou
There is no revenge so complete as forgiveness. Josh Billings
May 23, 2022
Today, Dodger pitcher Trevor Bauer will begin the appeal of his 324-game (two-year) suspension under the Major League Baseball Domestic Violence Policy. Of course, this appeal is totally within his rights under the Collective Bargaining Agreement [CBA] between the Players Union and Major League Baseball. Not since Philadelphia Phillies’ first baseman Eddie Waitkus* had a very unfortunate 1949 encounter with his admirer Ruth Steinhagen has there been quite a baseball player and female fanatic scandal to match this current controversy. The obvious questions are: 1) Will the long suspension of Trevor Bauer be upheld; 2) Will the entire suspension be enforced if it is upheld, 3) Will Bauer ever pitch in the Major Leagues again; 4) Should Bauer be allowed to pitch in the Majors again; and 5) Is just the suspension itself punishment enough for Bauer’s sins? To try to answer these questions, first we should outline the case against Mister Bauer.
* Waitkus, who was shot by Ms. Steinhagen when he arrived at her hotel room for their first meeting, later reportedly sardonically commented: “Only one girl ever fell in love with me and she was nuts.”
What reportedly happened
Early in 2021, Trevor Bauer and his female devotee came in contact through social media [Instagram apparently]. They agreed over the internet to meet for the very first time and have ‘consensual rough sex’ that included Bauer slapping and choking the woman. Apparently a nice first date to simply get to know each was not an option. On April 21, 2021, the woman drove from her residence in San Diego to Mister Bauer’s home in Pasadena, California. According to the woman’s account, they had some ‘consensual rough sex’ that escalated until Bauer, without consent, stuck his fingers down her throat, choked her unconscious with her own hair, and then sodomized her while she was unconscious. The woman then left Bauer’s home the next morning on April 22nd of 2021. Bauer would later deny that he did anything but have ‘consensual rough sex’ during their April 21/22 meeting. Despite what can only seem to be described, if the woman’s version is correct, as a pretty lousy first date, they continued their internet flirtation.
Despite the bad first date, the woman drove to Pasadena again for a second meeting and another round of ‘consensual rough sex’ on May 15th of 2021. According to the woman, the two of them had agreed on a ‘safe word’ which would stop Bauer from doing anything without her consent. But, despite this precaution, the woman claimed that Bauer once again choked or strangled her unconscious. While she was passed out, Bauer proceeded to scratch or punch her in the head, face, buttocks, and private parts. She was left with two black eyes, a bloody swollen lip, and bruises all over her buttocks and private parts. Although her identity has not been revealed by the press, the woman would later release photos of her beaten face, allegedly from the incident. It is unclear from the reporting of the second incident, but it also appears that she accused Bauer of anally raping her again. Apparently, it did not occur to her that a ‘safe word’ is useless if you are out cold.
* In a case of poor reporting, the actual ‘safe word’ has never been disclosed.
Once again, Bauer denied that he did anything other than have ‘consensual rough sex’ during their May 15/16 meeting. After waking up and leaving the house the next morning on May 16, 2022, the woman went to the Pasadena Police and reported that she had been sexually assaulted. The very least that can be said about this woman would be that she must be incredibly immature and reckless to put herself under the control of basically a complete stranger and then trust that person to treat her with dignity. Although her age has not been disclosed, the picture apparently shows a very young woman. The very least that can be said about Trevor Bauer would be that he also must be both incredibly immature and reckless. Considering what he had to lose, you must wonder if Bauer is anywhere near as intelligent as he likes to portray himself. If not an actual idiot, he certainly acted like a total moron, if not the unhinged sexual deviant that the woman has accused him of being.
The Aftermath
With the reporting of the incident in the press, Major League Baseball began investigating Bauer for a violation of their ‘domestic violence’ policy. On June 28th of 2021, with the Police investigation still on-going, Bauer was placed on ‘administrative leave’ by Major League Baseball. He could no longer play, but he was still getting paid. On the very next day, June 29th of 2021, the alleged victim filed for a restraining order against Bauer. She filed the complaint ‘ex-parte’ (meaning Bauer was neither informed of or present for the initial Court hearing). Considering that her residence in San Diego is approximately 130 miles away from Bauer’s home and that she had driven to his house for both encounters, the reason for this requested restraining order was somewhat ambiguous. You had to assume that Bauer had threatened to hunt her down for a third encounter. If not, the alleged victim would have been better off not going to court at all.
Apparently, she could not produce any evidence of the necessary threat. In a second hearing to extend the restraining order, Trevor Bauer and his lawyers were present to contest it. They were able to point out that she had driven to him, and she lived far far away. Almost predictably, Bauer accused the woman of attempting to financially extort him. You must wonder exactly what type of legal advice the woman was getting at this point. The entire attempt to get and then maintain this restraining order seemed more like legal maneuvering to gain leverage over Trevor Bauer than a result of actual fear. If those were her intentions, it would absolutely be an abuse of the court system. In a “he said/she said” scenario such as this, any action that calls the credibility of one side into doubt is cause for their entire version of the story to be called into question and discounted.
The Criminal Outcome
On February 8, 2022, the Los Angeles county District Attorney’s Office [DA] announced that it would not be filing criminal charges against Trevor Bauer for the alleged incidents. The LA DA’s Office said that they did not believe that they could prove the case against him under the: ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ standard that is used in criminal cases. In their announcement, the DA’s Office specifically noted problems stemming from the woman’s filing of the restraining order. With the LA DA’S Office declining to prosecute, Bauer happily skated away from any criminal consequences. Predictably, Bauer then acted as if he had been proven completely innocent. But he still had to deal with the consequences from Major League Baseball itself. And Major League Baseball’s case would be decided under the much looser: ‘preponderance of the evidence’ standard used in civil, not criminal, cases.
The Baseball Outcome
On April 28, 2022, even though he had not been criminally charged, Major League Baseball handed Trevor Bauer a unpaid 324-game suspension [exactly two seasons] for his role in the incident. This was on top of his already served 99 game paid vacation from the game while he was on administrative leave.* The suspension, if its upheld, will last from the 19th game of the 2022 season until the 18th game of the 2024 season. If this suspension is not tossed out or reduced, it will wipe out the rest of Bauer’s contract (ending in 2023) with the Los Angeles Dodgers. And, in 2024, the now completely unemployed Bauer will be eligible to sign a contract only after teams have: 1) signed their players, and 2) set their rosters and payrolls for the 2024 season. Realistically, Bauer would probably not have a chance to sign another free agent contract until 2025 (assuming that he is able to snare a make-good contract in 2024 and he pitches well). Unsurprisingly, the unrepentant Bauer immediately announced that he would appeal the 324-game suspension.
* Oddly, his paid leave lasted 99 games and the 2022 Lockout lasted 99 days.
Under the CBA, Trevor Bauer’s Appeal will be held in front of a three-man Arbitration Panel. This panel will consist of a representative from the Player’s Union (presumptively on Bauer’s side), a representative from Major League Baseball (surely on the side of Rob Manfred, the Baseball Commissioner who imposed the suspension), and an Independent Arbitrator (who will actually decide the appeal). Martin Scheinman, the current Independent Arbitrator, is not truly all that Independent. He was appointed by agreement of the Union and the Commissioner’s office and he can be fired by either side if he makes a decision that they do not like. All 3 of the previous Independent Arbitrators were fired by either the Union or MLB because they did not like a ruling. This makes it much more likely that the supposedly Independent Arbitrator will act more like a Mediator than an Arbitrator. In other words, he will try to find a middle ground that is acceptable to both sides rather than completely rule for either side. So what will this middle ground be?
Incidental Analysis
1) Will Bauer’s suspension be upheld? Like most ‘He said/She said’ situations, Trevor Bauer and his accuser have offered pretty much diametrically opposed accounts of what actually happened. By her account, Mister Bauer has to be a mentally ill sexual deviant who enjoys hitting and mistreating women. Bauer lured her into his lair where he savagely beat her. He is basically some type of monster. By his own account, Bauer never did anything without the women’s consent. This was all supposed to just be some harmless and innocent role-playing. But he was naïve and reckless and is now the victim of an extortion attempt gone bad. Of course, the truth is surely somewhere in the middle of these two accounts. But this does not mean that the truth is exactly halfway between one version and the other. So is there any evidence to believe one version is much closer to the truth than the other? Whose version should be believed?
In the court of Public Opinion, Trevor Bauer’s version is pretty much already a lost cause. Despite reportedly being bullied when he was young, Bauer has spent his entire adult life acting like a bully. Self-reflection is apparently not his strong suit. Two other women have come forward and accused Bauer of treating them in exactly the same way as the alleged victim. One of them was evidently in a long-term abusive relationship with Bauer. The other accuser filed or attempted to file a similar restraining order against Bauer in 2020.* She only withdrew it under the threat from Bauer of expensive litigation. It has so far been completely uncontradicted that Bauer sent her a message that he did not want to see her again because he would then have to go to jail for killing her and she wasn’t worth it. Does any of this mean that Bauer actually did what his current accuser claims? No, but usually, where there is a giant cloud of smoke, there is also a raging fire.
* Incredibly, the second accuser was supposedly arrested for underage drinking while reporting the crime. Unless this victim only reported the assault in an odd attempt not to be arrested for underage drinking, it makes you wonder exactly how much empathy the police have for sexual assault victims.
In addition to all this and without any regard for the public relations optics, Trevor Bauer’s response to his accusers, the accusations themselves, and even the reporting of the story, has been to threaten to file or actually file lawsuits against basically everyone and anyone. Of course, Bauer’s strategy of ‘suing to intimidate’ simply reinforces the narrative that he is a bully. His use of his superior financial resources to attack everyone and anyone actually makes all the accusations against him much more believable. Of course, this does not actually mean that they are true, just more likely to be true. Combined with the other two woman’s accusations, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the Arbitrator will uphold Major League Baseball’s suspension of Bauer. The Arbitrator will then have to decide whether to uphold the entire 324-game suspension or only part of it.
2) Will the entire suspension be enforced if it is upheld? This would be the worst-case scenario for Trevor Bauer. If the entire suspension is upheld, there is a chance that Bauer’s career may be over. In 2024, Bauer would come back to Major League Baseball with his hat in his hand, begging for a contract. It is entirely possible that no team would decide to eat the bad publicity of hiring him. Like Colin Kaepernick in football, Bauer could become an untouchable or persona non grata (though for ignoble acts rather than noble reasons like Kaepernick). However, this result is very unlikely. If he upholds the entire 324-game suspension, the Independent Arbitrator will almost surely be promptly fired by the Players Union. The decision will stand but the Arbitrator will be gone. It is much more likely that the Arbitrator will simply reduce the 324-game suspension. What will the Arbitrator consider while he deliberates on reducing the suspension?
Trevor Bauer will surely bring up in the Arbitration hearing that Rob Manfred, the Baseball Commissioner, has a massive conflict of interest in imposing the suspension. Manfred, of course, represents the Major League Owners (and in particular the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bauer’s current employer). The Dodgers are paying Bauer a phenomenal amount of money (a total of 102 million from 2021 to 2023 if Bauer was able to collect it all). By suspending Bauer, Manfred is helping his own employer, the Dodgers, get out from under what has now become a nightmarish contract. Trevor Bauer will obviously not bring up the fact that his own actions are mainly responsible for his contact becoming an albatross. But, to be fair, all the evidence that Bauer would, at some point in his tenure, completely embarrass the Dodgers was already circulating before they ever signed him. Will the Arbitrator take any of these considerations into making his final judgment?
The Arbitrator will have to weight the evidence that Trevor Bauer is a pretty despicable person against Major League Baseball’s desire to bury his career in an unmarked grave. As Trevor Bauer seems to be almost universally disliked, the most likely result will be a minor reduction of the suspension. Enough so that the Player’s Union can walk away from the entire mess, but not so great a reduction that the Commissioner’s Office looks emasculated. The case of Alex Rodriguez seems on point. A-Rod was suspended for 211 games for multiple steroid violations. Like Bauer, A-Rod was, at that point, a generally completely unlikable person.* On the other hand, Bauer is actually much more unlikeable but the case against him may actually be weaker (A-Rod was unambiguously guilty while Bauer can hide behind the uncertainty of the “he said/she said” conundrum). With a reduction of the suspension being the likely result, the question becomes how large will the reduction be?
* Strangely enough, A-Rod has rehabilitated his image and is now employed as a broadcaster. Rehabilitation for Bauer seems unlikely.
3) Will Trevor Bauer ever pitch in the Major Leagues again? In many ways, the likelihood of Bauer pitching in the Majors again probably depends on exactly how much of his suspension is reduced. If Bauer’s suspension was completely overturned, he would surely pitch in the Major Leagues again. It is extremely unlikely that the Los Angeles Dodgers would simply bite the bullet and give Bauer the remaining $60 million dollars on his contract to go away.* The very lawsuit-happy Bauer would almost surely sue the Dodgers to let him pitch. In all probability, the Dodgers would let him pitch again, take the publicity hit, and hope that time heals some of Bauer’s self-inflicted wounds. On the other hand, if the suspension is barely reduced from the 324-games handed down by Rob Manfred, Bauer is in considerable danger of simply being released by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
* Trevor Bauer was paid $4 million of his $32 million due in 2021 before he was suspended without pay.
If the suspension is reduced severely (to say 75 games), the same logic would probably compel the Dodgers to still let Bauer pitch. However, the closer the reduction comes to the actual 324-game sentence given out by Manfred, the more and more likely it becomes that Bauer would simply be released by the Dodgers. If the suspension is 200 games or more, Bauer is in serious danger of watching his career die with a whimper. An interesting question would be: How much would the Dodgers will be willing to throw away as a ‘sunk cost’* to simply walk away from Trevor Bauer and all his unattractive baggage. The amount is probably as soon as the cost gets lower than 8 figures [$10 million dollars]. In other words, if the reduction of Bauer’s suspension is around 50 or 60 games, it is much more likely that the Dodgers will walk away from him. It will be fascinating to see what happens. The question of whether Bauer will ever pitch in the Major Leagues again is an open one.
* Sunk Cost: A cost that has been incurred, cannot be recovered, and will only get larger if one tries to recover it.
4) Should Trevor Bauer be allowed to pitch in the Major Leagues again? It seems like the answer to this question should be: “Yes, of course, after his suspension is over.” However, as soon as the suspension was announced, multiple media megaphones immediately advocated that Bauer should never be allowed to return to the Major Leagues. They put forth the proposition that no punishment for Bauer was adequate for what he has done. The only punishment that would be acceptable was his banishment from polite society and the destruction of his lucrative Baseball career. In a sense, this feeling is understandable. It seems like Bauer escaped the consequences of his actions. If he was not very wealthy, Bauer would probably be in jail for assault. On the other hand, Bauer will spend the rest of his life dealing with public knowledge of his transgressions. Because he is a public figure, Bauer will never be able to truly leave this behind. His obituary will probably begin: “Trevor Bauer, former Major League pitcher, who was accused of beating an unconscious woman, died today.” Because he is famous, Bauer has lost the protection of anonymity.
It is also true that, given Bauer’s personality and past actions, there is little likelihood that: 1) Bauer will ever express remorse for his actions; 2) Bauer will learn a single thing because of what happened, 3) Bauer will change his toxic personality one bit. In all likelihood, Bauer will blame the woman, the courts, the press, and whoever else is available. He will claim that he himself is the victim. Bauer will probably never realize or accept that he is quite lucky to have not faced more serious consequences from his reckless, immature and malignant actions (a description that fits even if you only give credit to his side of the story). But is the fact that Trevor Bauer is unlikely to change or grow as a human being an adequate reason to end his Baseball career? To cast him into the outer darkness forever? The people advocating this type of vengeance should perhaps look at themselves first. Are they perfect? Who wants to be permanently judged by their very worst day? In modern society, when did forgiveness become unacceptable?
This desire to see Bauer’s career as a Major League pitcher end is really based on simple envy. Why should Bauer get to enjoy the extraordinary fruits of his talent when he is so reprehensible? But does this possible injustice justify that he be denied the right to pursue his chosen vocation? If, for instance, an auto mechanic commits manslaughter but escapes criminal prosecution, do courts ban him from being an auto mechanic? Of course not. This type of thinking also assumes that Bauer’s punishment may not come from other avenues. At the least, it is likely that Trevor Bauer will lose more, possibly much more, than 30 million dollars in salary. Is that enough punishment? In the future, many personal and financial opportunities will be denied to him because of these actions and their baggage. Is that enough punishment? Even if he never ever accepts any responsibility or modifies his behavior one iota, Bauer will still be punished. He will have to live with virtually everyone knowing what type of person he is deep inside. Once his suspension is over, Bauer should certainly be allowed to pitch again. Staying famous will be its own punishment.
5) Is just the suspension itself punishment enough for Trevor Bauer’s sins? Who really knows? But the greatest punishment may actually be the total destruction of his baseball legacy itself. It has been regularly reported that Bauer’s obsession with Baseball started when he was just a child. Any chance that he ever enters the Baseball Hall of Fame without a ticket has pretty much evaporated. Although a Hall of Fame honor is never guaranteed, Bauer was actually making good progress towards it. In 2021, Bauer was the reigning Cy Young Award winner. He was playing for the Dodgers, a club that is currently, and for the foreseeable future, a super-team. As long as he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bauer would have surely won many games even if he just pitched averagely (not to mention that Dodger Stadium, a renowned pitcher’s park, would have made all his statistics look better than they actually were). If he could have maintained his statistics for the next four or five years, Trevor Bauer probably would have had a very good shot at the Baseball Hall of Fame. Instead, the heart of his career has now been wiped out by this suspension and the tatters of his good name have been buried under the outhouse.
Of course, the counter argument would be that Trevor Bauer’s best couple of years were probably the result of cheating by applying extra adhesive to the ball when he pitched. With the current crackdown on this type of tampering, Bauer was very unlikely to still be quite as good as he was during the 2018, 2020, and 2021 seasons. Could Bauer have maintained his pitching results without spider-tack or some other adhesive? We will probably never know now (unless Bauer eventually comes back and pitches as well as he once did). Interestingly, he played exactly half a season, 81 games, after the crackdown on applying substances to the ball began in 2021; and his doubled statistics are really good [16-10, a 2.57 ERA, with 142 hits allowed, 74 bases on balls, and 274 strikeouts]. If he could have maintained this production in 2022 and 2023, Bauer would have the heart of a Baseball Hall of Fame career. But that is all moot now. Perhaps one day, Trevor Bauer will come to realize what he threw away without a second thought. If he ever really does, I believe that would be punishment enough.
Addendum
Trevor Bauer’s three-year 2021-2023 contract has been reported in the press as $102 million over the three years. In 2021, Bauer was scheduled to receive $28 million in straight salary with a $10 million dollar signing bonus that was to paid to him in installments over the 2021 season. He could have opted out of the contract after the 2021 season and received a $2 million dollar buy-out. If he opted out after the season, his 2021 compensation would have been $40 million dollars. Bauer, who was suspended before the 2021 season finished, wisely did not exercise this opt-out. In 2022, his actual salary increased from $28 million to $32 million dollars. He also had yet another buy-out option for $15 million dollars after the 2022 season. Reportedly, this $15 million buyout would have been heavily deferred (paid out over time). So it’s unknown what the actual present day value of this buyout is. But multiple sources have listed his 2022 salary as $47 million dollars anyways. By the contract, if he declined to opt out after the 2022 season, Bauer’s 2023 salary remained at $32 million.
A couple of questions about this salary structure:
1. Could Trevor Bauer have opted out after the 2021 season while he was on paid administrative leave? Or was Bauer’s option to opt-out blocked by the administrative suspension? Of course, Bauer wisely did not opt-out for two million dollars and void the potential $64 million dollars left on the contract. So it was a moot point. But whether it was even possible is unknown; and
2. Would his 2021 bonus payments have been affected by the suspension if it was without pay? Does an unpaid suspension cover just the player’s salary or his entire contract? Again, as Trevor Bauer was on paid administrative leave during the 2021 season and it would have been stupid as all hell for him to opt-out at that point, this is also a moot point; but
3. Can Trevor Bauer opt out of his contract after the 2022 season? This would trigger the $15 million dollar buy-out provision in his contract. Of course, his suspension is unpaid now. But does this suspension also void Bauer’s ability to collect the $15 million dollar buy-out option? If his 324-game suspension is upheld by the Arbitrator (meaning Trevor Bauer will not return until early in the 2024 season) and the suspension does not void the 2022 buy-out option, Bauer should definitely opt out. Even if the suspension is just reduced but still wipes out most of the 2023 season, it will still be in Trevor Bauer’s interest to opt out and take the 15 million dollar buy-out. Of course, whether Bauer can actually do any of this has never been addressed in the press.